tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post7475511525207950542..comments2023-09-09T17:41:33.146+03:00Comments on HISTOLOGION: taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-53362875443048763722009-03-15T10:08:00.000+02:002009-03-15T10:08:00.000+02:00Ah, Fred Weston wasn't the author of that article....Ah, Fred Weston wasn't the author of that article. Fair enough.<BR/><BR/>As to the rest, "everyone else got it wrong the same way" is not really a defense.<BR/><BR/>Shift to the left: well, maybe. But polls are volatile, and the shift has yet to express itself either in electoral terms or in government policy. <BR/><BR/>This doesn't mean it isn't real, of course. American public opinion moved sharply in late 2005 -- after Katrina, basically -- and by early 2006 had shifted well to the left of the then-administration. However, the administration had no interest in changing its ways, and there were no electoral consequences until the midterm elections in November '06. And Parliamentary systems can be even worse; the British public was quite thoroughly sick of the Tories by the end of 1993, but had to wait another three and a half years to get rid of them. (Although the near-universal disillusionment and irritation did give rise to Britpop! So there was that.)<BR/><BR/>Let's give it a year and see what happens.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Doug M.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-9725548444909334232009-03-03T01:10:00.000+02:002009-03-03T01:10:00.000+02:00Well Doug to be fair:Both the predictions that Mar...Well Doug to be fair:<BR/><BR/>Both the predictions that Margaronis makes (and wow, do you really think that The Nation is a publication in which Marxists predominate?) were seriously discussed by the majority of the (bourgeois and reactionary of course) press. It did seem at the time that ditching Karamanlis might be an option out, because PASOK's lead at the polls seemed (and still does seem) unbeatable. This did not transpire because in reality there is no one that has a better chance than Karamanlis.<BR/><BR/>At the time also there was a widespread feeling that the government's razor-thin majority of one would evaporate somehow somewhere. It hasn't happened. Yet. We'll see.<BR/><BR/>The reason that Karamanlis was supposed to call for early elections was so that the first elections would fail to end with either party earning a parliamentary majority. The second elections would then coincide with the European elections and thus people would have (so the argument goes) a chance to vent their anger at the European polls while voting for a "realistic" choice in the national elections, given the impasse of the first elections. This I never bought because the PASOK vote would work the same way, but this too isn't Margaronis' idea. It was seriously circulating in the Greek press.<BR/><BR/>The other reason for early elections is that (given that the crisis has not really been felt in Greece yet, but it's due any month now) New Democracy can lose these elections, let PASOK make a mess of an impossible situation anyway, and force new elections next year when PASOK would be discredited. Otherwise if a (totally inept even by local standards) New Democracy government suffers the blows that the crisis is about to land on the economy they would risk losing by a *much greater* margin next year.<BR/><BR/>There is a massive swing to the left in Greece. Opinion polls show the left + the greens at a arecord ~20% for the national elections and PASOK has obviously shifted to the left at least rhetorically in order to contain its losses to the left. I don't think there is a question about this, she's right (and the crisis and the social violence has actually weakened the left since the article was written). <BR/><BR/>I note that a very scary war is going on in Greece right now, infusing with violence a very volatile situation. Various extreme groups are attacking all sorts of targets in a rather suspicious manner. It reminds me of nothing so much as the Italian strategy of tension in the 70s.taloshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-2259051627610449332009-03-02T13:51:00.000+02:002009-03-02T13:51:00.000+02:00What is it with Marxists and long-windedness? Did...What is it with Marxists and long-windedness? Did that article really need to be 12,000 words long?<BR/><BR/>In any event, let's check out the predictions in the final section:<BR/><BR/>"There is a big possibility that the present government can fall in the coming weeks and months." -- two months on, government looks as strong than ever. Like a lizard ditching its tail to escape a bird, Karamanlis' sacking of a handful of career politicians back in January seems to have stabilized his approval ratings. They're still low, sure, but the government shows no sign of falling.<BR/><BR/>"Meanwhile the bosses are preparing to ditch Karamanlis in an attempt to clean up the image of ND." -- nope.<BR/><BR/>"It seems more and more likely that early elections could be called in the spring and what is very clear is that the PASOK will gain" -- not yet. (N.B., in 12,000 words they don't manage to explain why a government would call elections it's certain to lose. Yes, this can happen, but it's very rare.)<BR/><BR/>"there is a massive swing to the left taking place in Greek society." -- well, to be fair, two or three months is too soon to judge. On the other hand, I could make this argument with a straight face WRT American society, and adduce at least a bit of evidence in support. Greek society... not seeing it so much.<BR/><BR/>Watching with interest, anyway.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Doug M.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-60821137025835799732009-01-13T11:56:00.000+02:002009-01-13T11:56:00.000+02:00See this.See <A HREF="http://www.marxist.com/revolutionary-ferment-greece-taste-for-europe.htm" REL="nofollow">this</A>.Frank Partisanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03536211653082893030noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-11289282490177117502008-12-26T06:21:00.000+02:002008-12-26T06:21:00.000+02:00I read a report that 60% of the people arrested we...I read a report that 60% of the people arrested were immigrant. This is a significant number, though it is probably distorted by police discrimination.<BR/><BR/>Also, check out this article:<BR/><BR/>http://dagblog.com/politics/greek-riots-332Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-6324654192496748512008-12-25T08:11:00.000+02:002008-12-25T08:11:00.000+02:00Holiday GreetingsStay out of jail!Holiday Greetings<BR/><BR/>Stay out of jail!Frank Partisanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03536211653082893030noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-51446254337650385842008-12-22T22:24:00.000+02:002008-12-22T22:24:00.000+02:00Took me some time: Doug1. The immigrant students w...Took me some time: <BR/>Doug<BR/>1. The immigrant students were on the streets along with their Greek schoolmates. Race was not a factor in this (ok looters were more likely to be immigrant than not, but that correlates with poverty).<BR/><BR/>2. The government will not survive very long I think, but little will come out of this unless the Left steps in and offers something concrete. This however is near-impossible (barring some quite spectacular developements) without some sort of serious EU realignment towards the Left.taloshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-60747824979314669742008-12-14T00:34:00.000+02:002008-12-14T00:34:00.000+02:00Two questions.One, where are immigrants in all of ...Two questions.<BR/><BR/>One, where are immigrants in all of this? When times get hard, immigrants are a natural, easy target. Is there any of that yet?<BR/><BR/>Two, what are the odds of all of this coming to nothing, or anyhow to very little? Like, the government survives without sweeping reforms or changes? or at most is replaced by a PASOK-dominated coalition that doesn't make any really major changes either? My impression from a distance is "better than even", but I will freely admit that's a guess based on very little real knowledge.<BR/><BR/>cheers,<BR/><BR/><BR/>Doug M.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-12581115358458309972008-12-13T19:02:00.000+02:002008-12-13T19:02:00.000+02:00See this.According to that article a political exp...See <A HREF="http://www.marxist.com/greece-teenager-uprising-big-general-strike.htm" REL="nofollow">this</A>.<BR/><BR/>According to that article a political expression wasn't given to the teens, related to the timidity of the left parties and the unions.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Regards.Frank Partisanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03536211653082893030noreply@blogger.com