tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-56574592024-03-13T09:58:12.675+02:00HISTOLOGIONFrom Athens, Greece: Opinions and web links I find interesting about politics, science, life, and anything else that strikes my fancy. Feedback and comments: send to mihalisATgmail.comtaloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.comBlogger713125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-15282826561618120332018-10-18T23:06:00.000+03:002018-10-18T23:17:42.857+03:00Twitter, the Atlantic Council and its elusive Iranian "troll farms"<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCKTiTU17dIUL6bbNZRnQxWBpE2IVfq0w6Y2KeNXGSWt5hSIqUm-aaN9VCrnZB-Np-kqIywi6mGdDnBLChdoihQeEKxpSoGdIClGhBn_qxOjs-AtLLU-K8wrEp0EbRe53orONWSw/s1600/10-Persepolis-Palace-of-Darius-Relief-Medes-and-Persians-Christopher-Wood.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="472" data-original-width="700" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCKTiTU17dIUL6bbNZRnQxWBpE2IVfq0w6Y2KeNXGSWt5hSIqUm-aaN9VCrnZB-Np-kqIywi6mGdDnBLChdoihQeEKxpSoGdIClGhBn_qxOjs-AtLLU-K8wrEp0EbRe53orONWSw/s640/10-Persepolis-Palace-of-Darius-Relief-Medes-and-Persians-Christopher-Wood.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Persians are coming!</td></tr>
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The former <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2012/mar/22/twitter-tony-wang-free-speech?fbclid=IwAR0bLqpVfVdEAID_VaQ0_kIlbjjdAB-_JvkSl3sROphUyfT-XNawUVvVdZk" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">free speech wing of the free speech party</a> and now serial <a href="https://theantimedia.com/anti-media-facebook/?fbclid=IwAR3CCr7ucre3B3UUnC6peHpXsShuzSXDezn_zJvQ8eElIUBKz6JsZ32hpv8" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">social media censor</a>, Twitter, has <a href="https://about.twitter.com/en_us/values/elections-integrity.html?fbclid=IwAR1JZntzlacN6Jof08z7LoeE0faaCXqjVk5rJSSHMjsU1sYXlEBlWxjSaUI#data" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">dumped some large chunk of data</a> on us, as part of its supposed campaign to<br />
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span class="_2cuy _19ii _2vxa"><span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">"...improve public understanding of alleged foreign influence campaigns... making publicly available archives of Tweets and media that we believe resulted from potentially state-backed information operations on our service..."</span> </span>
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What’s worse, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Council?fbclid=IwAR3347gY41DaOCahPqBKfI5dQUs4mXLAs7-x8_zpxGRryI_HaBEqbjYmGto" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">the Atlantic Council</a>, a NATO-related think-tank, sponsored by the UAE and Saudi billionaires, <a href="http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/support/supporters?fbclid=IwAR3b8-cxbOXMzgaLRmEnNRLI5Z3enQSKh0qtR9voQv5OgtIIzik_CnOLnzs" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">among others</a>, hand-picked by fb to run their <a href="https://theantimedia.com/facebook-atlantic-council-democracy/?fbclid=IwAR3p4O9kVPErjttRqluLzve_JuurF8OiwfaznxeTeosxwAl7JR9T1TD10k0" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank"><span class="_7xn">g̶l̶o̶b̶a̶l̶ ̶c̶e̶n̶s̶o̶r̶s̶h̶i̶p̶ ̶c̶a̶m̶p̶a̶i̶g̶n̶</span></a> <span class="_4yxp">monitoring for misinformation and foreign interference... </span>Its <a href="http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/about/board-of-directors?fbclid=IwAR2DmkCAQSfEemEYePWoYRwSLJyTMN1uu8vRIaGH7N3HvGxaDEuwVoEEn7g" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">board members</a> include notorious war criminal Henry Kissinger, former CIA chiefs Michael Hayden and Mike Morell, and Bush-era head of Homeland Security, Michael Chertoff. </div>
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These folks through their <a href="http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/component/tags/tag/digital-forensic-research-lab?fbclid=IwAR0ZHJ4wV0HtfnX1o4bWzLfo2z94Zd7q_dj8fOrbDLrXi1XOnqx0k09fj6w" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">Digital Forensic Research Lab </a>analyzed the Twitter data and came to <span class="_4yxp">conclusions </span>regarding Russian and Iranian digital efforts at subversion in the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the world at large. In four parts:</div>
<ol class="_5a_q _509r" dir="ltr">
<li class="_2cuy _509s _2vxa"><a href="https://medium.com/dfrlab/trolltracker-twitter-troll-farm-archives-8d5dd61c486b?fbclid=IwAR1soLhurKmf6K6kWJXO9BuT8rUXUoTBVPtbxvgmYgBUaEovazuKrGC14Rc" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">Part One — Seven key take aways from a comprehensive archive of known Russian and Iranian troll operations</a></li>
<li class="_2cuy _509s _2vxa"><a href="https://medium.com/dfrlab/trolltracker-twitters-troll-farm-archives-8be6dd793eb2?fbclid=IwAR1U0v0StNXAHgi1J3L8lFAQTMzXq1wSu6oO-0y9rpxf5skNuQGXxRVRncU" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">Part Two — How the Internet Research Agency regenerated on Twitter after its accounts were suspended</a></li>
<li class="_2cuy _509s _2vxa"><a href="https://medium.com/dfrlab/trolltracker-twitters-troll-farm-archives-17a6d5f13635?fbclid=IwAR0snmoktePnS9N8jJn6F16ev0Zpwopi62jT75BD2dZFyBlLSGjfbQ-ZjEQ" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">Part Three — Assessing an covert Iranian social media influence campaign</a></li>
<li class="_2cuy _509s _2vxa"><a href="https://medium.com/dfrlab/trolltracker-twitters-troll-farm-archives-d1b4df880ec6?fbclid=IwAR34tXxon6pFsZTNkigRybQbL6Ag46qsuBbdYE9XBER1YNKLKl5_yVQu_E8" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">Part Four — Expanding on key conclusions from the Russian and Iranian troll farms</a></li>
</ol>
<div class="_2cuy _3dgx _2vxa">
I have skipped the Russian parts for the moment, because this is already part and parcel of the liberal American mythology and the new “blame Russia for everything” systemic narrative strategy. Thus I assume it would need even less evidence for extravagant claims.But I'll check.</div>
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I read part 3, though, the Iranian summary. And this is what I’d say about it:</div>
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It would be funny if it weren't so breathtakingly <span class="_4yxp">bereft of significance</span>. </div>
<ul class="_5a_q _5yj1" dir="ltr">
<li class="_2cuy _509q _2vxa">First of all any "troll farm" that attacks the barbarian Saudi regime is in my book on the side of the angels. I mean, do they really think that "Posts on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia... were routinely hostile and accused the kingdom of terrorism, atrocities, and war crimes" is a <span class="_4yxp">false</span> accusation and a <span class="_4yxp">bad </span>thing? </li>
<li class="_2cuy _509q _2vxa">A second point is that I wouldn't trust a NATO and UAE (not to mention Hariri) funded Council, with criminals against humanity on its board of directors, to tell me the time of day, much less what a "healthy public conversation" is. To make these sort of institutions arbiters of what is allowed on social media, is what is truly frightening to me.</li>
<li class="_2cuy _509q _2vxa">Thirdly they are accused of retweeting mostly <span class="_4yxp">true </span>information, such as "U.S. has wiped Raqqah off the face of earth", "Trump Is Insane" etc. So they are banned for making (and reproducing) valid statements and (in my book again) largely benign, opinions. This should be contrasted with POTUS being allowed to lie and maliciously slander people through the same platform.</li>
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<figure class="_2cuy _4nuy _2vxa"><div class="_h2x _h2y">
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" class="_h2z _297z _usd img" height="206" id="u_0_v" src="https://scontent.fath5-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/44330344_1022159727944485_5887203834035437568_o.png?_nc_cat=108&oh=e5d496045863d08a72878d0f428e4f30&oe=5C899F4B" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="640" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div class="_h2w _50f8 _50f4">
<i>Evil Russian or Iranian, (who knows!), propaganda stating a true fact</i></div>
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</figure><br />
<ul class="_5a_q _5yj1" dir="ltr">
<li class="_2cuy _509q _2vxa">Fourth. and most importantly, the report actually goes out of its way to not identify this activity as government-run. Which raises the question of "why ban them?", unless they plan to go after all of marketing / political / government accounts [in which case see last point]:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">The campaign has not been fully attributed. FireEye tracked it to email addresses and phone numbers in Tehran, but did not identify the organization controlling it. @DFRLab’s own research showed that it consistently shared regime messaging, notably from Ayatollah Khamenei. We refer to it as “Iranian” on the basis of its geography and content; this should not be taken to mean “government run.”</span> </blockquote>
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and</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">While these posts clearly amplified Iranian positions, it is questionable whether they should be viewed as a trolling campaign, in the sense of using social media to engage personally with other users. The overwhelming bulk of these posts served as advertising, aimed at drawing users towards articles on websites associated with the broader messaging campaign. While they targeted individual users, the posts did not seek to engage with them in meaningful discussion. The purpose appears to have been to draw those users’ attention to pro-Iranian websites.</span></blockquote>
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and most damningly:</div>
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">One issue on which the Iranian accounts might have been expected to go into overdrive was Trump’s decision to decertify, and then abandon, the Iran nuclear agreement, known as JCPOA. Surprisingly, the Iranian accounts were relatively quiet.</span></div>
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This is, of course, surprising only if one pre-assumes this "troll network" is indeed some purely state-backed spy / troll network, and not (as seems more likely) mostly Iranian English language publications' marketing campaigns, along with genuine pro-government (remember, the "reformer" - meaning in Westernese: the most pro-western electable candidate - and not the "hardliner" won in the last Iranian elections) local and diaspora views of citizens and citizen- or media- sponsored patriotic propaganda.<br />
<ul class="_5a_q _5yj1" dir="ltr">
<li class="_2cuy _509q _2vxa">Fifth. It seems that the "Iranian trolls" were actively campaigning against Trump at the same time that the alleged Sinister Tentacled Russian Bot Thing was campaigning against Clinton. Indeed it apparently called them on it in clearly clintonite terms...</li>
</ul>
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<figure class="_2cuy _4nuy _2vxa"><div class="_h2x">
<img alt="" class="_h2z _297z _usd img" height="640" id="u_0_w" src="https://scontent.fath5-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/p720x720/44386675_1022161544610970_8908570025187606528_o.png?_nc_cat=109&oh=ba61bb814976a1c4457321e4ce259fa9&oe=5C51185F" width="353" /></div>
</figure><br />
...which is strange given that Russia is Iran's best bet to avoid some US-induced Iraqi-style apocalypse. Those damn trolls can't even coordinate properly. Although Iranian "trolls" do seem to be consistently progressive and anti-Trump (a fact that the Idiot in Chief will no doubt use at some point, perhaps as a pretext to invade Iran). <br />
<br />
Finally: the 400 pound gorilla in the Middle East government-run bots, <a href="https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/ali-abunimah/israeli-students-get-2000-spread-state-propaganda-facebook?fbclid=IwAR3tWk4BwviSDYG7HRdNDSUjN9_HWK9BBsBJBboCo4XCdAsHyod3y-WQiLw">trolls</a> and <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/04/digital-occupation-israel-social-media-arabic-180403121518782.html?fbclid=IwAR2SB2_Lzu7MdPsKe4eTctiI_0fK11_W4TggCdTG9ntCx6caT_W5uy7jxbw">government coordinated social media</a> accounts is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/technology/israeli-propaganda-war-hits-social-media-20140717-ztvky.html?fbclid=IwAR0iXw0cdEqqYB_9skoMVHPuSIwL8t3gil6DAMXeoNP-j7ATsdqSjiCGqoE">Israel</a> (extending <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/08/us/politics/rick-gates-psy-group-trump.html?fbclid=IwAR2mawV-Ey8W1oYgtVUeeX2RtVoFeG-6RwPvM6yntrU8RbxCr6tiewIFpDc">beyond the Middle East</a>). Which somehow is never part of any study on coordinated influence campaigns, which are now <a href="https://www.rt.com/news/415748-troll-software-pentagon-social-media/?fbclid=IwAR2wcs07ijgUtAVv4j6IWbkm2Cz1IXowm-_UbbxJmXdZ5dSN-9KfGCgV_jg">universally part of western government propaganda</a>. The 10 tonne Elephant, and <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/07/the-us-has-a-long-history-of-election-meddling/565538/?fbclid=IwAR0GdaSfW8ILFD7Uz2TdEvEVWmtaxIkssmdl5IZLxA41uyvkw4Nrl7A39ys">all time champion</a> in the sport, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/17/sunday-review/russia-isnt-the-only-one-meddling-in-elections-we-do-it-too.html?fbclid=IwAR0cf8kvmFal44swSqsEBpRntooFLVShOmcQkVtm1PiqakvSVKS99YiUuQc">remains the US</a>, but I'm not holding my breath on a similar "analysis" by the Atlantic Council on the US influence networks on Twitter and FB, anytime soon.</div>
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taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-32935958862610613502018-07-21T14:12:00.002+03:002018-07-21T14:21:26.239+03:00JEFTA vs Trumpism: Between two evils<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCS5VYSbzToBVezwOX_EI9RwAN3Kyc5D0TteYwjA2yj-sCRecO9j9982kOCw1LYGMFwObSBZPTBhbFX852445wggOOVlfvJcp43SkO0c_nHlTQxMz2nXoDUOCNjIoVHfSE3BdxXA/s1600/maxresdefault.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCS5VYSbzToBVezwOX_EI9RwAN3Kyc5D0TteYwjA2yj-sCRecO9j9982kOCw1LYGMFwObSBZPTBhbFX852445wggOOVlfvJcp43SkO0c_nHlTQxMz2nXoDUOCNjIoVHfSE3BdxXA/s640/maxresdefault.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a data-lynx-mode="asynclazy" data-lynx-uri="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2F2018%2Fjul%2F17%2Fjapan-eu-trade-deal-light-in-darkness-amid-trumps-protectionism&h=AT3vbJmZquw9zxuK6icetPDY2Msp8GzIhIFwQjTzi02HQBJV7b4z6hlm9SMqaTqJR7d5J7_u9zyeMpMyoqV8_mfUMqmQNJ4k8N-gV0XscHCEuTveIF0zoLQ8hll_5bLr7sE" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/17/japan-eu-trade-deal-light-in-darkness-amid-trumps-protectionism" rel="noopener nofollow" style="color: #365899; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">This is completely depressing.
</a> 1. So the answer to Trumpism apparently according to the Guardian (of all media) is the sort of business as usual that made Trumpism a thing in the first place. In order to stave off protectionism and "populism" it is now apparently some sort of common media wisdom that the sort of <a data-lynx-mode="asynclazy" href="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffingtonpost.ca%2Fmichael-lessard%2Ffree-trade-democracy_b_5705925.html&h=AT3RABqP5VG1yM9kdphmKTtg5jzQVkl8adn4lRmoti3qJk_HnFyQP4WuihC2qH1BywOsa3br8D4IGI_Kti2V_ylHpB9aE_VbF5hJYGvvXjwdn2W3FnkyD7QtwhWMVeydEpA" rel="noopener nofollow" style="color: #365899; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">mega-regional trade deals</a> that have consistently and forcefully in the neoliberal era, <a data-lynx-mode="asynclazy" href="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Feuobserver.com%2Fopinion%2F131756&h=AT1vgtBXoeClUlXs67eZa734zF9ngyDW40wBJuqw-GKMCqIw-zVMJn7zDtk2EhYM_EsEB2nGpMLsh1G12HlpWlatzF7v06fST8G4ntG-QoohOMeGez0s42CtV8xZbiUuFDw" rel="noopener nofollow" style="color: #365899; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">aimed and succeeded to remove democratic control and accountability as obstacles to free trade</a>, are the "enlightened answer" to Trump. This is the sort of deal that initiated the backlash against the neoliberal order, and the anti-globalisation movement starting in Seattle in 1999. Until recently these were criticized by a broad spectrum of political and social forces and this criticism of the WTO, TTIP, NAFTA, CETA, CAFTA etc was ubiquitous and visible even in mainstream media. Now a cursory search of mainstream media articles even mildly critical of the deal turned up no results. Democracy today around the world is apparently being squashed to extermination, between a delirious Trumpist American supremacy and the technocratic / corporate negation of democracy that these sort of deals represent.
2. According to the article, "Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, and the EU leaders Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker sought to establish themselves as the flag-bearers of the free world". There is however no metric of authoritarianism today that wouldn't place (<a href="https://intpolicydigest.org/2013/12/26/understanding-shinzo-abe-s-historical-revisionism/">imperial nostalgist</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/13/japan-accused-of-eroding-press-freedom-by-un-special-rapporteur">media censor</a>, <a href="https://apjjf.org/2017/21/Tawara.html">extreme traditionalist</a>) Abe to the right of Trump or Orban. And if the free-world's flag is being carried by the same Eurocrats that imposed neverending austerity and turned Greece into a protectorate, this is really a very, ehm, <i>tainted </i>concept of freedom...
3. Tusk has stated that this deal shows that the EU and Japan are coming "to the defence of a world order based on rules, freedom and transparency and common sense". Yet, these mega deal processes <a data-lynx-mode="asynclazy" href="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fcorporateeurope.org%2Finternational-trade%2F2018%2F04%2Fquiet-set-eu-negotiating-trade-deals&h=AT0h-MJKhtCaJ6t2be86jKxQAflffpU6b-30rehs46fTtSU-P1QuJ9mLv6onSCf1AqOje7amiCr7M3HQHWBRdYHNeftxDtW1qtwsVgMeiXo_aaHmc_ZSNBMSOWeL-FzqBpI" rel="noopener nofollow" style="color: #365899; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">are among the most unaccountable and untransparent imaginable</a>. This is also not a bug from the point of view of the Corporate - Eurocrat lobby and the 1% in both areas whose interests are served by the sort of trade deal that is JEFTA. This is a feature.
4. "Asked how he would respond to concerns that free trade could threaten jobs, Tusk responded: “Political uncertainty, tariff wars, excessive rhetoric, unpredictability, irresponsibility; they are a real risks for our businesses, not trade agreements.”"
He is asked about jobs. He answers about businesses. Enough said.
5. Here is criticism of the deal from the European parliament's United Left group (GUE/NGL) group, which seems to be a mong the few still be paying attention to all this:
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<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #1d2129; direction: ltr; font-size: 17px; margin: 0px auto 28px; white-space: pre-wrap; width: 700px; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">"“<a data-lynx-mode="asynclazy" href="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.guengl.eu%2Fnews%2Farticle%2Fcategory%2F%2Flast-ditch-call-for-council-to-scrap-dangerous-trade-deal-with-japan-left-m&h=AT3Dcx1vIInO82nSPxFrkK8sCSjEcMYJ5sF3IMTix6HRfMi0Gm7r3PRyzW6FiNzg6jaYu0B5NpetYUIJmHdpxrKi5h4UILJHu3DzULjhPwOlvYh9yoRNvfbzzq6vNY-gZKg" rel="noopener nofollow" style="color: #365899; cursor: pointer;" target="_blank">I doubt Council is taking a long-term perspective</a> with their decision tomorrow when they sneak through the free trade agreement with Japan. If you were concerned about CETA, you should be worried about JEFTA. The Commission considers it a CETA+ agreement. It transfers decisions on regulatory reform from parliament to working groups of civil servants that take advice from businesses, industry and financial stakeholders.”</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">“The agreement exposes Japanese farmers to the competition of highly-subsidised products from Europe. It is not an exaggeration to say that centuries-old traditions in Japanese rural areas will be endangered.”...</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">“Furthermore, the agreement exposes European car workers to competition from the exploitative Japanese labour market, where unpaid over-time hours is the norm, where death by exhaustion (Karoshi) is commonplace. The labour rights chapter of the agreement is weak and lacks any enforcement. Our demand for a binding dispute settlement tool in the Trade and Sustainable Development (TSD) chapter has been ignored.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">Scholz also questioned the undemocratic way in which the agreement came about:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">“How many national parliaments have been consulted before taking this decision? Has there been a transparent public debate in the national or even regional parliaments? Without debate and democratic accountability in member states, citizens will become alienated from the EU´s trade policy. This will lead to further weakening of trust in the EU.”</span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , serif;">and</span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #1d2129; direction: ltr; font-size: 17px; margin: 0px auto 28px; white-space: pre-wrap; width: 700px; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">"<a data-lynx-mode="asynclazy" href="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.guengl.eu%2Fnews%2Farticle%2Fcategory%2F%2Fttip-ceta-jefta-have-they-learned-nothing&h=AT1de5EeRQhQE5yADjTRGd_RCcgbTKyLjNCqfnj7me9YVGC2Ob24lq_yh9N5Rm14vOjsROz4bs96IgnI5lDqbFlaXXKxgAdhPlqkw6pbqFU0HJeRv64Q2tcON458xBaJg7A" rel="noopener nofollow" style="color: #365899; cursor: pointer;" target="_blank">In JEFTA, the so-called compromises are at the expense of consumers</a>, small producers, and companies," Scholz criticized. "Much is clear from the fine print". However, JEFTA's main problem remains that the agreement "deprives parliaments in both Europe and Japan of regulatory control, and establishes an economic partnership that goes far beyond trade". The now-negotiated adequacy decision on data protection and data trade, for example, could bring lower data protection for European consumers. "People are increasingly losing control over what companies do with their personal information. I would like to remind the Commission and Council that data protection is a fundamental right in the EU. You have no right to make our data a commodity!"</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">For Japanese small farmers, the complete lifting of tariffs threatens their very existence "if they are fully exposed to the competition of cheap food from Europe," says Scholz. “Two-thirds of Japanese farmers are over 60 years old and farm very small plots. Their traditions will now end."</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">"The contractual provisions make it possible for JEFTA, under the pretext of reducing trade and investment barriers, to level down consumer and environmental protection standards as well. Japan has already had to abolish two long lists of provisions, as a precondition for our EU to accept to sit down at the negotiating table. This also applies to key aspects of today's social and economic development, such as environmental and social sustainability and labour standards."</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">Completely inadequate responses were made to concerns, particularly from development organizations, that JEFTA promoted the trafficking of illegally-harvested timber. Hardly controlled in Japan so far, the tropical wood could now reach the European market through this back door.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">"With the vote in the European Parliament still scheduled for the coming months and before ratification in Council, MEPs must show the red card to the governments and reject the agreement. Everything else would mean ignoring the concerns of people in Europe and Japan once again."</span></blockquote>
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6. <a data-lynx-mode="asynclazy" href="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.socialeurope.eu%2Fmega-regional-trade-agreements-what-agenda-for-social-democracy&h=AT1gdvjVietPWdG6mPpL0bF_PT7OW7MTOQOtNNZhC5yx-YYBpShOSpDbPfcPI3FCgATGYoUbKMhKbvalUyFsJytnk_C57eIeb-hxdyDeT5DYakR2fIo3kS67zIat6IvMrgE" rel="noopener nofollow" style="color: #365899; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">See also this article from Marija Bartl</a> and a consistent Social Democratic angle, on these regional mega trade deals generally: </div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #1d2129; direction: ltr; font-size: 17px; margin: 0px auto 28px; white-space: pre-wrap; width: 700px; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">"If it continues on this course, EU trade policy will further alienate EU citizens. Not only do the mega-regional trade agreements now pursued leave aside many important issues on which they have substantial impact – such as climate, migration or tax – but they also internally project an alienating picture.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">These agreements seem to endorse a particular imaginary of the future – the EU as a high tech, cosmopolitan, transnational society, full of mobile actors, with excellent language skills, flexible worldviews and good education. And this image certainly fits the self-understanding of the elites participating in the negotiation of these agreements.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">Yet, such a vision of globalization does not leave enough space for the population that has great trouble in imagining itself as part of these promised futures. Trump on the one hand, and Brexit on the other, along with the rise of far right all across Europe, attest to an important sense of exclusion that the current political economy produces."</span></blockquote>
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taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-64752677458889863822018-05-09T13:48:00.000+03:002018-05-09T13:48:19.494+03:00Iran's public opinion on JCPOA deal and other matters <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCrRF0BPV6ANXp317T1JR9kposhrSZw9_bonn9iiPf7htLIWeQ2tzWy8ThGHov7UH4czlHqrri9ODzi3MaIysnkgUD5TUCSldATnb5rpqbI8ZSejf30e1p2ANBzd2lhjukU_U7ww/s1600/Trump.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCrRF0BPV6ANXp317T1JR9kposhrSZw9_bonn9iiPf7htLIWeQ2tzWy8ThGHov7UH4czlHqrri9ODzi3MaIysnkgUD5TUCSldATnb5rpqbI8ZSejf30e1p2ANBzd2lhjukU_U7ww/s640/Trump.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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Given the orange idiot's anouncement yesterday of USA's exit from the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action">Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)</a> nuclear deal with Iran, and because in his speech he referred to the "Iranian regime" and to "dictators, while implying that the people of Iran do not back their government's stance on the issue, let's see what the actual polls of actual;iranians opinions tell us:<a href="http://www.cissm.umd.edu/sites/default/files/CISSM%20Jan%202018%20Iran%20Results%20and%20Trend%20Tables%20-%20FINAL_0.pdf"> Opinion poll in Iran, January 2018 / Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) & IranPoll</a>. Some selected stats:<br />
- <b>Iran’s political system needs to undergo fundamental change</b>. 16,4 strongly/somwhat agree, 76,7% strongly/somewhat disagree<br />
- <b>Iran’s current level of involvement in Iraq and Syria is not in Iran’s national interests</b>: S/s agree: 32,6% S/s Disagree: 61,2%<br />
- <b>In your opinion, how important is it for our country to develop its nuclear program?</b> Very/somewhat: 85,8%, Not important: 9,6%<br />
-<b> In July 2015, Iran and the P5+1 countries reached a comprehensive agreement in regard to Iran’s nuclear program, which is also known as the JCPOA. In general<br />and based on what you know about the JCPOA, to what degree do you approve or disapprove of this agreement?</b><br />
S/S Approve: 55,1% S/S disapprove: 33,8%<br />
- <b>How confident are you that the United States will live up to its obligations toward the nuclear agreement?</b> V/S confident 11,6%, Not confident 86,4%<br />
- <b>How would you rate American President Donald Trump’s policies toward Iran on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 means completely hostile, 5 means nether hostile nor friendly, and 10 means completely friendly?</b> 0-3: 82,9%, 4-6 13,8% 7-10: 1,2%<br />
- <b>If the United States takes measures against Iran that are in violation of the JCPOA agreement, do you think:</b><br />
<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="104pg" data-offset-key="6ar43-0-0">
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Iran should retaliate by restarting the aspects of its nuclear program that it has agreed to suspend under the JCPOA: 58.7%</li>
<li>Iran should continue to live by the JCPOA agreement and should seek to resolve the issue by taking its complaints to the UN: 37,7%</li>
</ul>
<div>
- <b>If the United States decides to withdraw from the JCPOA agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran, but other P5+1 countries remain committed to the agreement and do not reimpose sanctions, what do you think Iran should do?</b></div>
<div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Iran should withdraw from the JCPOA 52.8% </li>
<li>Iran should remain committed to the JCPOA 39.0% </li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<b> - What do you think should be Iran’s response if Trump threatens to re-impose U.S. sanctions
lifted under the JCPOA unless Iran agrees to increase the duration of the nuclear limits it has
accepted under the JCPOA?</b></div>
<div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Iran should accept Donald Trump’s demand 1,4%</li>
<li>Iran should agree to renegotiate the JCPOA but
only accept increasing the duration of the nuclear
limits it has accepted under the JCPOA as part of
a deal that includes the US lifting more sanctions
on Iran 27,2%</li>
<li>Iran should not agree to increase the duration of
the limits it has accepted under the JCPOA under
any circumstances. 64,4% </li>
</ul>
<div>
<b>- Thinking about how the JCPOA has worked out so far, which view is closer to yours? </b></div>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>The JCPOA experience shows that it is worthwhile for Iran to make
concessions because through compromise Iran can negotiate mutually
beneficial agreements with world powers.
21.9% </li>
<li>The JCPOA experience shows that it is not worthwhile for Iran to make
concessions, because Iran cannot have confidence that if it makes a
concession world powers will honor their side of an agreement.
67.4 </li>
</ul>
<div>
<b>- In your opinion, how important is it for our country to develop missiles? </b></div>
</div>
<div>
v/s important: 94,9%, not important: 4%</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>- As a general rule, what do you think is the better approach for Iran to pursue in trying to
solve the problems it is facing in the region:</b></div>
<div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Seeking to become the most powerful country in the region 46.2%</li>
<li>Seeking to find mutually acceptable solutions with other countries
through negotiations 49.4% </li>
</ul>
</div>
- <b>In your opinion should Iran increase its support of groups fighting terrorist groups like
ISIS, decrease it, or maintain it at the current level?
</b><br />
<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Increase 54,8%</li>
<li>Decrease: 10,2%</li>
<li>Maintain it at the current level 31,7%</li>
</ul>
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- <b>Some people say that going forward, Bashar Assad should not be allowed to remain
President of Syria because he is an incompetent leader who used excessive force against Syrian
civilians and let ISIS gain control of territory. Others say that Bashar Assad did what was
necessary to keep Syria together and whether he remains the president of Syria should be
decided by the Syrian people. Which view is closer to your perspective? </b><br />
<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Bashar Assad should not be allowed to remain President of Syria 9.2%</li>
<li>Syrian people should decide whether Bashar Assad remains as
President of Syria 84.0 </li>
</ul>
<div>
<b>- Which of these is closer to your view about the situation in Yemen?</b></div>
<div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Iran should help the Houthis defeat their opponents 46.7% </li>
<li>Iran should not get involved in Yemen’s domestic conflict 41.2 %</li>
</ul>
<div>
- <b>Which position is closer to yours?
1. Islamic and Western religious and social traditions are incompatible with each other and
conflict between the two is inevitable; or
2. Most people in the West and the Islamic world have similar needs and wants, so it is possible
to find common ground for peaceful coexistence?</b></div>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Conflict is inevitable 35,2%</li>
<li>Common ground possible 58,1%</li>
</ul>
<div>
<b>- In your opinion, to what degree should our country's policymakers take religious teachings
into account when they make decisions? </b></div>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>A lot/somewhat: 77%</li>
<li>Not a lot / Not at all: 20,8%</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
- <b>Thinking about how much political freedom people in Iran have, do you think they have
too much, too little, or just about the right amount of political freedom? </b></div>
<div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Too much 9.2%</li>
<li>Too little 30.4 </li>
<li>Just about the right amount 56.2 </li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
- <b>Do you think the government tries to exercise too much control over people’s personal
lives, not enough control, or about the right amount of control? </b> </div>
<div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Too much 17.6%</li>
<li>Too little 17.9 </li>
<li>Just about the right amount 57.7 </li>
</ul>
<div>
- <b>In your view, is global climate change a very serious problem, somewhat serious, not too
serious or not a problem?</b></div>
</div>
<div>
v/s serious 94,3%</div>
<div>
not serious / not a problem: 3,8%</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
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taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-16817987405713997382018-05-04T03:08:00.000+03:002018-05-04T03:08:35.596+03:00The Society of Social Media<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<br />Literary Experiment: Take the first 9 theses of Guy Debord's Society of the Spectacle (1967), and replace the word "spectacle" with "social media". Fix the syntax. The result is, well, interesting:<br /><br />1. The whole life of those societies in which modern conditions of production prevail presents itself as an immense accumulation of social media. All that once was directly lived has become mere representation. <br />2. Images detached from every aspect of life merge into a common stream, and the former unity of life is lost forever. Apprehended in a partial way, reality unfolds in a new generality as a pseudo-world apart, solely as an object of contemplation. The tendency toward the specialization of images-of-the-world finds its highest expression in the world of the autonomous image, where deceit deceives itself. Social media in their generality are a concrete inversion of life, and, as such, the autonomous movement of non-life. <br />3. Social media appears at once as society itself, as a part of society and as a means of unification. As a part of society, it is that sector where all attention, all consciousness, converges. Being isolated - and precisely for that reason -this sector is the locus of illusion and false consciousness; the unity it imposes is merely the official language of generalized separation. <br />4. Social media are not a collection of images; rather, they are a social relationship between people that is mediated by images. <br />5. Social media cannot be understood either as a deliberate distortion of the visual world or as a product of the technology of the mass dissemination of images. It is far better viewed as a weltanschauung that has been actualized, translated into the material realm - a world view transformed into an objective force. <br />6. Understood in their totality, social media are both the outcome and the goal of the dominant mode of production. It is not something added to the real world - not a decorative element, so to speak. On the contrary, it is the very heart of society's real unreality. In all their specific manifestations - news or propaganda, advertising or the actual consumption of entertainment - social media epitomize the prevailing model of social life. They are the omnipresent celebration of a choice already made in the sphere of production, and the consummate result of that choice. In form as in content social media serve as total justification for the conditions and aims of the existing system. They further ensure the permanent presence of that justification, for they govern almost all time spent outside the production process itself. <br />7. The phenomenon of separation is part and parcel of the unity of the world, of a global social praxis that has split up into reality on the one hand and image on the other. Social practice, which social media's autonomy challenges, is also the real totality to which the social media is subordinate. So deep is the rift in this totality, however, that social media are able to emerge as its apparent goal. The language of the social media is composed of signs of the dominant organization of production - signs which are at the same time the ultimate end-products of that organization. <br />8. Social media cannot be set in abstract opposition to concrete social activity, for the dichotomy between reality and image will survive on either side of any such distinction. Thus social media, though they turn reality on its head, are themselves a product of real activity. Likewise, lived reality suffers the material assaults of social media's mechanisms of contemplation, incorporating the socialmediatic order and lending that order positive support. Each side therefore has its share of objective reality. And every concept, as it takes its place on one side or the other, has no foundation apart from its transformation into its opposite: reality erupts within the social media, and the social media is real. This reciprocal alienation is the essence and underpinning of society as it exists. <br />9. In a world that really has been turned on its head, truth is a moment of falsehood.</div>
taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-71599665993727796162016-12-13T03:47:00.000+02:002016-12-14T09:32:36.937+02:00Poul Thomsen and the IMF's "pro growth" policies for Greece<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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The IMF's Poul (the Ghoul) Thomsen has written about taxes and pensions in Greece in the context of the Fund's contribution in assisting to "<a href="http://www.imf.org/external/np/blog/2016/pdf/Greece-TN-121216.pdf">Make the Greek Budget More Growth Friendly</a>". This is part of the IMF's newly discovered <a href="https://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2016/12/12/the-imf-is-not-asking-greece-for-more-austerity/" target="_blank">anti-austerity mission for Greece</a>. Although seemingly relatively sane compared to the rest of Greece's EU "partners'" demands - and especially our colonial overlords in Berlin - of 3,5% budget surpluses for as far in the future as anyone can see, the Fund is in fact helping drive the ongoing negotiations to the rocks. This because in order for the IMF to concede the fiscally obvious regarding surpluses, it demands in return draconian measures against sections of the poor and a further dismantling of labor relations, which is considered, rightly, <a href="http://www.ekathimerini.com/212018/article/ekathimerini/news/greece-says-to-stand-up-to-imf-on-demands-for-labor-reform" target="_blank">politically unfeasible, impossible for the current government to even contemplate</a>. (I should note however that <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14151.pdf" target="_blank">as recently as two years ago the IMF was skeptical but approving of 4% + fiscal surpluses for Greece</a> (p.10 and fwd), every year, all the way to the mid 20s)<br />
<br />
Simply put, PT's report consists of fallacies, half-truths and misrepresentations piled one on top of the other, the sort of which, when this Austerity Disaster first started, <a href="https://histologion.blogspot.gr/2016/07/the-imfs-selective-mea-culpa-on-greece.html" target="_blank">I delighted in shredding apart point by point</a>. As it seems increasingly pointless I'll stick to some basic highlights.<br />
<br />
1. IMF as a growth friendly institution: this is <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/greece/gdp-per-capita-ppp" target="_blank">the baseline</a> by which all numbers provided by the IMF should be measured.<br />
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2. <a href="http://www.institutmolinari.org/IMG/pdf/tax-burden-eu-2016.pdf" target="_blank">Average salary / tax burden on average salary in Greece</a> (p.9)<br />
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3. D<a href="http://www.ekathimerini.com/203677/article/ekathimerini/business/disposable-income-shrinks-twice-as-fast-as-gdp" target="_blank">isposable income collapsed</a> as a result of the policies that the IMF led the pack of "lenders" in inflicting. So now the IMF laments the "steadily declining tax collections", as if they didn't cause this income collapse, and as if the GDP (as shown in 1, above) didn't plummet at rates reminiscent of wartime. Similarly, as incomes and revenues collapsed and taxes rose, "accumulating tax and social security debt to
the state" was a natural consequence, again, of the IMF's own prescriptions</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
4. I'm not sure how Chart 2, on declining tax collection rate in Greece, jibes with Eurostat statistics showing total tax revenue almost <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Total_tax_revenue_by_country,_1995-2015_(%25_of_GDP).png" target="_blank">monotonically increasing</a> during the same period</div>
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<div>
5. Also interesting to note that Greece will have <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/eurozone-greece-deficit-review-idUSB5N14R004" target="_blank">beat the fiscal bailout targets</a> for <a href="http://www.capital.gr/tax/3175229/ti-krubei-i-auxisi-ton-forologikon-esodon" target="_blank">two</a> consecutive years, basically by improving the collection rate, through, among other factors, exactly the sort of installment and deferral schemes the PT is lamenting. </div>
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6. Public healthcare is in a disastrous condition in Greece, although public expenditure in healthcare has been more or less stable across the past two budgets. However the <a href="http://www.gulbenkianmhplatform.com/conteudos/00/79/00/02/Greece%E2%80%99s-health-crisis_9280.pdf" target="_blank">murderous</a> initial reduction in <a href="https://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/Country-Note-GREECE-OECD-Health-Statistics-2015.pdf" target="_blank">healthcare spending imposed by the IMF and the EU between 2010 and 2014</a>, is not even mentioned. These reductions were dictated by the troika. PT sounds like he just heard of all this.<br />
<br />
7. <a href="http://www.macropolis.gr/?i=portal.en.the-agora.2622" target="_blank">Greek pensions, the true story</a>. This is from last year, public contributions have since been slashed by 1% GDP, so assume things are worse, and already over 50% of Greek pensioners are around the poverty line<br />
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8. The IMF wants to further "liberalize" mass layoffs, in a society that is straining under a 23% unemployment rate, and the Ghoul actually makes the case for this by pointing out that if we dropped even more pensioners below the poverty threshold, then the Greek state could afford better unemployment benefits - and thus I assume it would be cool with the laid off to lose their jobs. Order of magnitude calculations, combined with the dismal - in both remuneration and duration - existing unemployment benefits (i.e <a href="http://www.oecd.org/els/soc/NRR_Over5years_EN.xlsx" target="_blank">Unemployment Benefit Replacement Rates 5y</a>), show that this would offer negligible improvement, provided mass pensioner euthanasia wasn't a prerequisite. How easing layoff laws can possibly help lower the unemployment rate, is one of those things only the IMF executive and similar neoliberal market faith-healers understand, and certainly <a href="https://www.socialeurope.eu/2015/04/labour-market-deregulation-productivity-imf-finds-no-link/#" target="_blank">the IMF's own research teams reject</a>.<br />
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9. The Ghoul also fails to mention that the new, improved IMF anti-austerity platform includes refusing to reinstate collective bargaining agreements, which were discontinued originally at the IMF's insistence earlier during this crisis. It also wants to make going on strike more difficult, further hamper unions' already severely diminished capabilities, and allow employer lockouts. This is surely not a step in making anything more fair.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
10, Poul Thomsen: "Greece pays an average nominal public
pension similar to Germany’s". This is an updated version of an <a href="http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2013/07/03/imf-thomsen-greeks-get-higher-pensions-than-the-germans/" target="_blank">obsession of his</a>.</div>
<div>
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pensions_in_Germany" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>: The average pension in 2012 [in Germany] €1263.15 per month<br />
<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160514202416/http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/06/26/eurostat-greek-pensions-average-e882/" target="_blank">Eurostat</a>: Pensioners in Greece receive an average 882 euros per month, 713 euros from basic pension and 169 euros from supplementary pensions (2013). </div>
<div>
<a href="http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tps00103&plugin=1" target="_blank">Eurostat II</a>: Expenditure on pensions in Greece was lower as % GDP than Germany's until 2007. Then the crisis came and all periphery countries saw the expenditure percentage of pensions explode proportionally to the degree of damage austerity (did I say <i>IMF imposed</i> austerity?) inflicted on their economies.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
11. Chart 6, makes little sense until you realize that poverty rates are at 60% of median income, and median income has plummeted in Greece as we saw. So despite the fact that all pensioners in Greece are significantly poorer than what they were in 2007, they haven't lost as much as the economy on average. That's why the working poor in Greece appear by that graph to have increased over the period by just 1%. <a href="http://www.macropolis.gr/?i=portal.en.the-agora.4395" target="_blank">As pointed out</a>:</div>
<blockquote>
<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">The risk-of-poverty rate is even higher when current income is compared to the poverty threshold set in 2005. When measured that way, the deterioration of living standards is startling as 42.2 percent of Greeks have dropped below the poverty threshold of 2005, from just 16.3 percent in 2010. That amounts to an almost threefold increase in just five years.</span></blockquote>
<br />
But finally, as I reconfirm my utter contempt for the IMF and its Murder of Ghouls and Minions, I have in all fairness to point out that compared to the German government they are outright enlightened.<br />
Which is why Europe is doomed.</div>
taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-34153908089971476542016-07-29T17:09:00.000+03:002016-07-29T17:09:00.381+03:00The IMF's selective "mea culpa" on Greece (and a repost from 2010)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
So <a href="http://www.ieo-imf.org/ieo/pages/CompletedEvaluation267.aspx" target="_blank">the Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF has issued a <i>mea culpa</i> on the handling of the euro crisis</a>. The <a href="http://www.ieo-imf.org/ieo/files/completedevaluations/EAC__BP_16-02_11__The_IMFs_Role_in_Greece_in_the_Context_of_the_2010_SBA.PDF" target="_blank">sub-report on Greece</a> in particular admits to very serious errors in handling the crisis, although it falls short of claiming at least partial ownership of the social and humanitarian disaster inflicted on the mass of the population in Greece. Apparently, and tellingly, it considers its programs in Spain, Portugal and Ireland as various shades of quasi-successful, as far as the IMF goals are concerned, which is probably true, but says more about the nature of IMF goals and what they do not include, given the various levels of social dislocation, hardship, increased suicide rates, increased inequality and migration rates in these austerityland countries. It focuses (rightly) on the lack of serious debt restructuring efforts early on in the crisis (due as we know, and the reports admit, to EU-level political reaction to any such plan), admits to a lack of understanding of the intricacies of the Greek economy (such that it was) and on pre-crisis assessments of it, and recognizes that the "burden-sharing" of the adjustment in Greece was very lopsided. Also and importantly it points out that:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">If preventing international contagion was an essential concern, the cost of its prevention should have been borne – at least in part – by the international community as the prime beneficiary</span></blockquote>
At the same time it ignores the social catastrophe that was produced by its "structural adjustment" pre-conditions in:<br />
<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>labor deregulation (in an economy with <i>inter alia</i> disaster-area unemployment rates, a war-time level of GDP reduction, and <a href="http://greece.greekreporter.com/2016/06/25/brain-drain-three-in-four-university-graduates-have-left-greece/" target="_blank">a massive brain-drain</a> as educated young people left and are still leaving the country to escape a prospect of life-long poverty wages), </li>
<li>privatizations (which they admit had highly inflated revenue goals, but have no problem with the fire-sale of state assets that they contributed in imposing) </li>
<li>the "opening of professions" (which is leading either to a proletarianision of professionals - contributing to the aforementioned <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/greece-brain-drain_us_5638f6abe4b027f9b96a46af" target="_blank">brain-drain</a> and the creation of ever-tightening, usually foreign-owned oligopolies), </li>
<li>or most of the rest of the other half-baked neoliberal snake oil they peddle (such as the "liberalization" of market opening hours). </li>
</ul>
<br />
Interestingly the report focuses on the issue of a more just burden-sharing mostly because the authors apparently imagine that if this "adjustment" was more fair - in terms of taxing the rich a bit more - then the population would have fallen behind and accepted the IMF programme. But although such a redistribution of tax burden and legal proceedings against tax-evaders would admittedly create less rage against the program, it would have marginal at best success in increasing revenues. As the current government, after the July 2015 coup in which the IMF participated, is now focusing on exactly this redistribution and <a href="http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/greek-government-reports-nearly-eu-1-billion-in-tax-evasion-fines-asset-seizures-300306216.html" target="_blank">does go after (many) tax-evaders</a> (certainly to a degree not seen in Greece since practically forever), tax arrears keep piling up because what is (or was) the middle class has been taxed out of its safety nets already, property taxes are at an unbelievably high rate (and since something like 80% of Greeks own their homes this affects even people who are truly struggling), <a href="http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2016/04/25/greeces-private-sector-244712-businesses-closed-and-842670-work-places-lost-during-2008-2015/" target="_blank">small businesses</a> have collapsed and those that survive are mostly fighting for their lives. and troika imposed VAT hikes are hitting everyone and <a href="http://www.ekathimerini.com/203439/article/ekathimerini/business/high-taxes-are-hurting-local-tourism" target="_blank">affecting the tourist </a>industry. You cannot receive from those who have nothing left to give. For probably most households and small businesses piling up arrears and tax-evading is a question of economic survival and sustaining a very modest living standard. No amount of fairness can erase this simple fact, which somehow escaped the grasp of the IMF as it still assumes that the increase in arrears is a question of reluctance not inability.<br />
<br />
As these reports are published, the IMF is still involved in Greece and <a href="http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2016/07/09/same-policies-as-usual-the-imf-wants-lowering-of-greeces-e586-gross-minimum-wage/" target="_blank">is pushing hard for further labor market deregulation, further reductions in the minimum wage and even laxer mass layoff laws</a>. The current Greek government is insisting that not only will it not accept these terms, but will push for restoration of some form of collective bargaining. So this is heading for a multiple stand-off this coming autumn, pitting the IMF against the rest of the lenders on debt reduction and the IMF against the Greek government in terms of labor reforms. It is questionable whether these recent reports will have any effect on IMF policy within the troika, especially since the IMF research teams and various committees have continuously offered critiques of IMF policy in Greece and were practically ignored by its executive.<br />
<br />
Still, things are in motion, especially after BRexit and the <a href="http://www.publicfinanceinternational.org/news/2016/07/european-commission-calls-spain-and-portugal-deficit-fines-be-dropped" target="_blank">Spain and Portugal amnesty decisions</a> on their "excessive deficit" that were driven by it, as well as the looming <a href="https://www.socialeurope.eu/2016/07/italy-banking-crisis-euro-crisis-two-lost-decades-ahead-either-way/" target="_blank">Italian (european?) banking c</a>rash / rule bending. This report adds to the argument that turning a blind eye on debt sustainability is a can that can be kicked along no further, a position already gaining ground inside the organization itself and <a href="http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/government-of-greece-us-treasury-secretary-urges-greek-debt-restructuring-by-eu-and-imf-says-countrys-continued-stability-is-crucial-to-shoring-up-a-troubled-eu-300302466.html" target="_blank">supported apparently by the US government</a>.<br />
<br />
As a refresher on the IMF's blunders and misinformation in Greece I am republishing below a diary I posted in the European Tribune in May 25, 2010, titled "S<a href="http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2010/5/24/222641/349" target="_blank">ome somewhat more coherent notes on the Greek crisis: debunking IMF propaganda (2)</a>" with updated links, minor edits and restored graphs (<a href="http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2010/5/13/215043/134" target="_blank">part 1 was here</a>), based on an IMF FAQ on the Greek crisis, and its Frequently Wrong Answers:<br />
<br />
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
Some somewhat more coherent notes on the Greek crisis: debunking IMF propaganda (2010, edited and restored, 2016)</h4>
<blockquote style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
I was thinking about how to structure the second installment of the saga of this unfolding disaster (part 1 <a href="http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2010/5/13/215043/134">here</a>) that has been inflicted on the Greek working population, part of the development of the Great Crash of 08. There is a lot to be highlighted, especially bogus data and statistics circulating among world media and organizations, that are then used to "explain" the inevitability of the neoliberal shock therapy which Greece is being subjected to (and which is I am afraid a first test for far wider application of similar shocks throughout the continent ).</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The IMF fortunately, I see, has helped me out a bit on this, by issuing a compilation of bad statistical urban legends and hearsay on the Greek crisis and endorsing it as policy background. In its web-site, <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20100513183924/http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/faq/greecefaqs.htm">the Fund has thus created an FAQ section on the Greek crisis</a>. This is a document riddled with outright lies and strategically propagated half-truths and obfuscations, along with wishful thinking and hand-waving serious questions aside, to an extent impressive for an official document, coming from one of the pillars of the world economy. It is the ideal place to start to tackle the (already dwindling in the face of the globalisation of the Euro crisis) moralizing and the lies that have been used to "explain" why working Greeks should suffer the economic equivalent of a nuclear attack. Let's check out some of the claims made to see how credible the IMF's analysis of the statistical and factual reality in Greece is...</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<hr style="text-align: left;" width="25%" />
<div style="text-align: left;">
1. Right off the bat the IMF starts with a much-repeated, yet misleading, claim:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">"Greece is highly indebted and lost about 25 percent of its competitiveness since Euro adoption".</span></blockquote>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
It is far from obvious how the IMF measures competitiveness. The FAQ section is not referenced at all, and it's not clear how this quantification arises or what it means. Erik Jones, writing in Euro Intelligence, was <a href="http://www.eurointelligence.com/article.581+M57dc5d072d8.0.html">already debunking part of the competitiveness mythology, as pertains to labor costs, in March</a>:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">...What matters in terms of a head-to-head competition is how Greece and Germany compare in the cost of labor per unit of output and not the real compensation of employees. Moreover, we should look at their performance across the European marketplace as a whole. By that measure, if we set the year 2000 equal to 100, then by 2009 Greece was at 98 while Germany was at 95. Germany is still doing better than Greece, but only by a little and both have improved against the rest of Europe.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">...Using national accounts data for relative real unit labor costs in manufacturing, Greece goes from 100 in the year 2000 to 87 in 2008. Over the same period, Germany goes from 100 to 90. It is hard to see how Germany comes off better in the comparison.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">...Even if Greece is not suffering in terms of manufacturing, the high real incomes that Greek employers are doling out must surely be hitting the bottom line in the service sector, shouldn't they? Again, that's hard to see in the data. Total compensation per employee was 53.8 percent in Greece and 57 per cent in Germany...</span></blockquote>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Furthermore the "since Euro adoption" part is misleading. Greek productivity was surging until 2007. After that year, influenced of course by the global crisis, and affected by real fiscal imbalances (about which more later) productivity (and competitiveness, however defined) fell faster than the Dow Jones average after a computer glitch, but that was surely not a uniquely Greek phenomenon.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
In fact Greece was receiving praise <strong>by the IMF itself</strong> for its improved competitiveness, <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2008/wp08112.pdf">singled out as the most successful economy in Southern Europe</a>.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGn80-ZsW9ijCrycpohGrQ8_2aIdfnoZ-xO1YzOoClhiaPmPv9fb5c3ZHtinKbLqAjpt3baXri7nY27LBbSUbMP1fnvUFmdEU0O5qnGZ1FLdaYWMjEU5-7FLb2Qs877MQ49s7Adg/s1600/Untitled.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt=""Only Greece has experienced robust per capita growth underpinned by commensurable productivity gains"" border="0" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGn80-ZsW9ijCrycpohGrQ8_2aIdfnoZ-xO1YzOoClhiaPmPv9fb5c3ZHtinKbLqAjpt3baXri7nY27LBbSUbMP1fnvUFmdEU0O5qnGZ1FLdaYWMjEU5-7FLb2Qs877MQ49s7Adg/s400/Untitled.jpg" title=""Only Greece has experienced robust per capita growth underpinned by commensurable productivity gains"" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Source: <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2008/wp08112.pdf">IMF</a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
So, much of the decline, in many areas, was a result of Greece not responding successfully to the global crisis. The "joining the Euro" part is thus, I repeat, misleading. And the whole story is repeated elsewhere in the document.</div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
2. Under the same question the IMF then makes a flatly false statement:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">In past years, Greece's public sector spending grew, while revenue fell. Then the global recession hit and economic activity slowed and unemployment rose. This exacerbated the fiscal situation.</span></blockquote>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Well no. The evolution of Greek public sector spending was <b>not</b> growth followed by a dip as the Greek economy was hit by the global recession. In fact between 2002 and 2006 public expenditure <strong>shrank</strong> and started rising precipitously, only after the global recession hit... but then so it did almost everywhere...</div>
<b></b><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><b>Greece / OECD public revenues as % of GDP</b>. Source: <a href="https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=REV#">OECD</a></b></div>
<b>
</b>
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJm8_hvb0yjCcmxih5YChy7eXCkvTpbsinw_WFt2ifMPyzekFffelvOPb3_CRe8__ak9tZxJ5FXlacFmZorIQ4-bFpEy5Ef_IrZRFkP67botAGiuByfcMyUpARUfp8QGeT33X7RQ/s1600/2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="281" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJm8_hvb0yjCcmxih5YChy7eXCkvTpbsinw_WFt2ifMPyzekFffelvOPb3_CRe8__ak9tZxJ5FXlacFmZorIQ4-bFpEy5Ef_IrZRFkP67botAGiuByfcMyUpARUfp8QGeT33X7RQ/s640/2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<b></b><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><b>Greece / Eurozone public expenditure as % of GDP</b>. Source: TradingEconomics.com </b></div>
<b>
</b>
<br />
<div style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlRdbUZNjCiHcegouWEL6pcigBNvmv8AydI8Mlc3Xnrl8Lffj5DXre3ENpBs8wZlsEYM38CzivRUu_3qoFF-9Q9Nhqc1EsJrVOJtGe_XqS90A6OcC8yZJQt3m6plK73LAI5RI0wQ/s1600/3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlRdbUZNjCiHcegouWEL6pcigBNvmv8AydI8Mlc3Xnrl8Lffj5DXre3ENpBs8wZlsEYM38CzivRUu_3qoFF-9Q9Nhqc1EsJrVOJtGe_XqS90A6OcC8yZJQt3m6plK73LAI5RI0wQ/s640/3.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Revenue was pretty much stable at rather low levels until just last year (2009) when indeed, it did drop.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
3. Fluffy nonsense:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">A significant fiscal adjustment is needed in Greece. The program is designed so that the burden of adjustment is shared across all levels of society, while protecting the most vulnerable groups.</span></blockquote>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Bollocks. According to most reports in the Greek press, the lower pensions are being lowered still and will then remain steady (or decline) at below poverty levels for the next few years. The minimum wage is effectively being driven down. So are disability pensions. At the same time while tax-evasion is being targeted, employers are receiving new-found "freedom" from labor costs.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">The government's program also includes pro-growth policies to reform such crucial sectors as tax administration, the labor market, the health sector, and the management of public finances.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">None of these is strictly speaking a pro-growth policy. They are trying to clean up parts of the tax collecting system (although with limited resources, a diminishing budget - due to the cuts - no possibility of hiring tax inspectors and public service auditors etc.). The labor market is the one area they have been "pro-growth": its being third-worldized.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">These measures will open up the economy to opportunity and make the economy more competitive, transparent, and efficient. This in turn will help restore confidence of investors and the markets. The ultimate goal is more dynamic and durable growth.</span></blockquote>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
... many years from now, by which time the basic salary will be around 100 Euros or so. Hurray! Although it <i>is </i>probably true that investors and markets, will really like the new Greece.</div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
4. And we thus move on to yet another falsehood:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">The fiscal measures include: a reduction of public sector wages and pensions--something which is unavoidable given that these two elements alone constitute some 75 percent of total (non-interest) public spending in Greece.</span></blockquote>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The 75% figure is completely false AFAICS and <a href="http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2010/5/13/215043/134#13">we've seen why here</a>: <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20140906074401/http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-EK-10-001/EN/KS-EK-10-001-EN.PDF">These are the Eurostat numbers (p. 15)</a>, and <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20110922012940/http://www.mof-glk.gr/proypologismos/2010/books/proyp/PDFProyp/1.5.pdf">this is the Greek Ministry's of Finance planned 2010 budget</a> [in Greek, see p.11, budgetary expenditure]. At most these add up to 45% of total (non-interest) public spending in Greece. So maybe this wasn't really "unavoidable".</div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
5. The response to the "but isn't this the bad ol' IMF doing its destructive work again":</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">Q. Is the range of conditionality in the Greek program a return to the more traditional IMF "austerity" measures of the past?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">No. There are three key differences:</span><br />
<ul>
<li style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"> This program is focused on Greece' two key problems: high debt and a lack of competitiveness. Conditionality is very much focused on these issues.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"> The Greek authorities have strong ownership and leadership and it is their program.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"> The program includes measures to protect the most vulnerable, which are a critical component to effective implementation.</span></li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Well:</div>
<ol type="a">
<li style="text-align: left;" value="a"> The Greek authorities claim that they have no such ownership and that they cannot draw "lines in the sand", except with great difficulty, where the measures are concerned. In fact according to the media, the Greek government is under enormous pressure from the IMF/EU Commission to further transform the pensions' system. One party is lying.</li>
</ol>
<ol type="a">
<li style="text-align: left;" value="b"> I have not noticed any of these "protective" measures being reported. What, they'll bring in UNICEF when child mortality rises?</li>
</ol>
<div style="text-align: left;">
6. The IMF insists that debt restructuring is not in Greece's interest, and that it will not help "Greece's capacity to grow". I wonder how mass migration of the young and talented will help "Greece's capacity to grow", a trend that existed already but now seems on the verge of reaching tragic proportions, or how is the deepest recession since Nazi occupation, conductive to "Greece's capacity to grow", unless they mean reaching such depths of poverty that Greece can compete with Vietnam in real wages, and Foxconn finds it profitable to move its factories and labor practices from mainland China to Greece. How will deep cuts in education help "Greece's capacity to grow"? How will an organized restructuring <strong>not</strong> help Greece's capacity to grow, if the alternative is an economic collapse and a recovery prospect based on wishful thinking and a best case scenario regarding world growth? How deep will the recession have to be this year (let alone the next and the one after that) before the IMF "revises" its outlook? Because we certainly are not heading toward a 4% of GDP recession: "market sources", are already whispering double digits.</div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
7. Regarding tax revenues the IMF states that:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">Additional specified tax measures amount to about 4 percent of GDP. The government is proposing measures to overhaul the tax system, including a progressive tax scale for all sources of income, taxing luxury goods, higher taxes for the wealthy, and higher taxes on tobacco and alcohol.</span></blockquote>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
That's all fine and well, but we're already seeing the failure of this policy to raise indirect taxes. Consumption has already dropped so much that the new taxes on cigarettes are not expected to raise revenues at all, while enriching cigarette smugglers. The five point increase in the VAT tax will mean less revenue for the government if, as it seems certain, consumption drops by more than 8% this year. Anyway it seems ironic that the IMF under its explanation for the increase in VAT mentions that "The government has proposed a range of tax measures with the aim of spreading the burden of adjustment more fairly". Obviously huge increases in <strong>indirect</strong> taxation, do not help in tax fairness, eh? </div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
8. The IMF explains that the wage and pension cuts the government is proposing</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
...will bring Greece in line with other, more competitive, economies. The extra two months salaries--the so-called "13th and 14th" payments--are unsustainable and do not exist in many other countries. Nor is the low retirement age that begins around 50 for some groups in line with life expectancy.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
This is highly misleading to the point of dishonesty:</div>
<ul>
<li style="text-align: left;">The 13th and 14th payments are just a particular way to temporarily distribute annual income. The only measure of wages that is meaningful is on a yearly basis. According to the European Economy Statistical Annex of 2007, Greece was <a href="https://data.oecd.org/chart/4AQq">second from the bottom in average wage purchasing power in the EU-15</a>.</li>
<br />
<li style="text-align: left;">Some people do retire early, as early as 41. These are few. Very few. Mostly in the Armed Forces (where they can retire and then get another job legally, meaning they continue contributing to the system) and the police. Also until recently women working in the public sector with underage children qualified for early retirement at 50+. But <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE62O0TZ20100325">the average retirement age in the economy as a whole is 61 years</a>. These reforms pretty much push full retirement for many people at around 67. Mentioning that some retire as early as 50 and stopping at that, is monstrously misleading. This piece of misinformation has been repeated ad nauseam around the global media (<a href="http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/business_money/greek+rescue+deal+agreed+but+ampaposbig+sacrificesampapos+ahead/3634287">i.e.</a>). And it is actually repeated again in the document:</li>
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
The pensionable retirement age for some groups beginning at around 50 is out of line with life expectancy in Greece--and out of line with the rest of the Euro zone countries. Given the aging of the population, such a low age for pensions, coupled with generous coverage ratios to last earned income, has put far too much strain on Greece's public finances.</div>
</ul>
This in a country where 28% of the over 65-year-olds are living under the official poverty line...
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
9. The IMF claims that:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">The authorities recognize that the public sector in Greece has become too large and costly for the economy. In fact, there is no clear data on exactly how many people are working in the public sector</span></blockquote>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
This is again not really true. The public sector amounts to <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100317143700/http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/greece/greece_economy.html">40% of GDP</a>, according to the CIA factbook (I couldn't find directly comparable numbers for the rest of the EU), while "The share of public sector GDP in total GDP is <a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2005/11/france_uk_produ.html">about 43 percent in the UK and about 54 percent in France</a>".</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The data on how many people work in the Public sector <strong>exactly</strong> might not be all in, but we do have a rather good ballpark estimate. It is 14% of the workforce, "very close to the OECD average" <a href="http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-EK-10-001/EN/KS-EK-10-001-EN.PDF#page=15">as the OECD itself notes</a>. The OECD is not including non-permanent seasonal and temporary employees which are between 300.000-500.000 in a given year (mostly underpaid and underinsured), and together both categories add up to something close to 20% of workforce (which is around 5 million). This is hardly a bloated public sector. It is inefficient, corrupt and poorly organized, yet surely its reduction (which is also a Greek government/IMF project), as opposed to its reinvention, reorganization, repair etc will only have the effect of ruining the few crumbs of a social safety net that do exist. That both the IMF and the Papandreou government see this as something desirable, speaks volumes about their ideology. </div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
10. Handwaving on the most crucial question, is not a good sign that the Fund is seriously concerned about the future of the Greek economy or Greeks in general:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">Q. With lower revenue and a stagnating economy, how will Greece begin to grow again?</span><blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">The government's program recognizes, and takes into consideration, that the difficult fiscal adjustment will initially have a negative effect on growth.<br />But with effective implementation of the fiscal and structural policies and the support of the Greek people, the economy will be far better placed to generate higher growth and employment than in the past.</span></blockquote>
</blockquote>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Meaning: We know the effect on growth will be somewhere from horrible to catastrophic, yet if we all get together and engage in wishful thinking we will do what has never been done before and get Greece to the neolib fantasy of prosperity, with third world wages and most of its trained youth living somewhere far away. This is based on pretty much the sort of magical thinking that has made the IMF synonymous with disaster. So if our best case scenario regarding the world economy holds up, and if Greece is very, very lucky, it might return to 2009 levels of GDP by 2025 or so. Impressive. </div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
11. As final proof that the people who wrote the FAQ are kidding, you have their take on unemployment:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">Because of the crisis, employment is already high at about 10-11 percent. Initially, there will be an increase in unemployment and the next two years will be difficult - unemployment could rise to about 15 percent. However, as strong medium-term fiscal measures and productivity-boosting reforms kick in, the economy will become more competitive, transparent, and efficient. With confidence returning, Greece will emerge from this experience in better shape than before, growth will return and employment will pick-up.</span></blockquote>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
This 15 percent is utter fiction. The labor minister even before the IMF/Commission demolition combo landed in Athens was projecting unemployment rates around 17% by the end of the year. 15% is laughably low. Already in May unemployment had reached 12,1 percent up from 9,1 last May, and on a steep slope towards the stars. And this is pretty much before the austerity measures kicked in. I'm willing to bet that we will be lucky to have 15% unemployment by the end of this year. Next year we will most probably reach 20% or more. Among young people 18-24 unemployment is already at a staggering 34% this month. </div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
12. Final question:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">Q. Has any country undertaken this level of fiscal adjustment before?</span><blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">It is an unprecedented adjustment, but it is feasible, and the government is committed to getting the job done.</span></blockquote>
</blockquote>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Feasible if one believes this absolutely speculative and factually false account given by the IMF. But anyway, this is an admission that Greece is the first guinea pig, an experiment to see if any First World country can survive the IMF treatment without joining the Third World. </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Greece in particular will end up having transitioned from a hell of an inefficient and corrupt social model to no social model at all...</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Finally:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The fact that the IMF has been so clumsy in its description of the Greek situation (and so unrealistic on the effects the policies it is imposing will have, or are having), either reveals the quality of the analysis of the Greek economy that has driven the IMF's/EU advice - a bad sign surely, or demonstrates that the IMF is barely covering up for decisions of which it is only an implementation instrument. Alternatively they don't care enough to be serious...</div>
</blockquote>
</div>
</div>
taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-57291582290742990932014-11-01T12:08:00.001+02:002019-04-17T21:49:40.667+03:0033 Reasons Why Athens (and Greece) is still in deep depression<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150329014543/http://media.komonews.com/images/120520_greece_crisis_660.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20150329014543/http://media.komonews.com/images/120520_greece_crisis_660.jpg" height="267" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<i>...So I came upon this article last night, and it really annoyed me. It claimed to present "<a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/alexbesant/33-reasons-why-athens-is-the-next-big-thing-jugk" target="_blank">33 Reasons Why Athens Is The Next Big Thing</a>". Some of these "reasons" are pre-existing and/or permanent (the food, the views etc), some are questionable (Athens is cheap? Not for the majority of its inhabitants: it is probably the most expensive city in Europe by average purchasing power). Some are misleading and dated (Athens is far less busy at night now than I ever remember it). Some are false (Athens is not laid back anymore except if you are unemployed or rich. Everybody in between is literally running for their lives). </i><br />
<i>This is PR, par for the course, possibly part of some marketing strategy. But it isn't harmless and it is creating a false image of success that is 100% non-existent. People outside the country might be led to believe that all is well, that austerity turned out alright. It didn't: things still need to change drastically, and not only in Greece...</i><br />
<i>What I as an Athenian really resent, is this BS that's being projected by our (far-right, super-corrupt) government, of a city and a country that is "coming out of the crisis", a country that "has pulled itself together and its capital [that] has never been more lively". It <b>hasn't</b> pulled itself together, things are probably <b>the worse they have ever been</b> for a majority of working and unemployed Greeks and Athens is a city in deep depression (compared to its past almost manic vivacity). The only people who can possibly see Athens through such rose-tinted glasses are either detached foreign visitors, assuming they avoid the nastier parts and sides of the city and have no previous experience of Athens; and well-to-do Greeks, the "winners" of this crisis, the ones that project their own personal comfort to the city at large. These are exactly the sort of people, the 1% of the true victors and the 10-30% of "crisis survivors" that form the backbone of the "pro-austerity" parties. They have become fascinatingly adept in turning a blind eye to the persistent humanitarian crisis that the country and the city is suffering, cynically indifferent to the mass of "losers", inhuman in their disdain of the common people. The last image of the article, of a woman in Kifissia, one of the poshest suburbs in Athens, is indicative. The inhabitants of Kifissia are indeed well-placed in not noticing the disaster that has befallen, and is still enveloping the country. The Athens described, is their Athens.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>So let me present below 33 reasons why all this hype is plain orwellian...</i><br />
<br />
(1) Projecting <a href="http://greece.greekreporter.com/2014/10/13/elstat-2-5m-greeks-facing-poverty-risk/" target="_blank">the poverty numbers in Greece</a> as a whole to Athens, assuming a population of 4 million people, we can estimate that the city has approximately a million people, below poverty, including (2) <a href="http://www.enetenglish.gr/?i=news.en.article&id=2083" target="_blank">a record number of children</a> - more than in any other OECD country. By a similar projection (3) another million and a half are in danger of poverty, as <a href="http://greece.greekreporter.com/2014/09/25/6-3-million-greeks-threatened-by-poverty/" target="_blank">2/3 of the country in total</a> are near or below the poverty line.<br />
<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/gallery/2013/jun/12/homelessness-in-greece-in-pictures" target="_blank">(4) Homelessness</a> is ubiquitous in a city that practically was a stranger to the phenomenon until 2010<br />
(5) Hundreds of thousands are denied <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/greeces-prescription-for-a-health-care-crisis/2014/02/21/adabb7ac-8db1-11e3-99e7-de22c4311986_story.html" target="_blank">even basic health-care and insurance</a> as (6) the <a href="http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/greece-austerity-takes-a-heavy-toll-on-public-health" target="_blank">national health system crumbles</a> under the burden of austerity.<br />
(7) Around <a href="http://greece.greekreporter.com/2014/10/31/eurostat-unemployment-in-greece-at-26-4-in-july/" target="_blank">a million Athenians are jobless</a>, (and (8) youth unemployment in the country is at 50%+). (9) Unemployment benefits are meager, last a year and after that, people are (10) pretty much<a href="http://www.enetenglish.gr/?i=news.en.society&id=2061" target="_blank"> left to fend for themselves.</a><br />
For those who do work, wages (especially for the young but generally for all) have (11) been dropping <a href="http://greece.greekreporter.com/2014/09/26/wages-in-greece-fell-for-the-second-quarter-of-2014/" target="_blank">continuously</a> and precipitously, often below subsistence levels. In fact most of the jobs that do exist are in the kinds of bars mentioned in the article, and in low-skilled menial work, paying 200-500 Euros, usually uninsured. Greeks are on average <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/22/us-greece-incomes-idUSBRE99L0I420131022" target="_blank">40% poorer</a> than when the crisis began, and falling... This of course leads (12) to levels of inequality (showcased in Athens magnificently if one wants to drive around a bit) not seen in the country since the 1950s (if then), high enough that <a href="http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/economy/article/imf-warns-about-income-inequality-in-greece" target="_blank">even the bleeding IMF</a> thinks something should be done about it. The disaster has affected (13) gender equality which is also <a href="http://greece.greekreporter.com/2014/10/29/greece-ranks-91st-in-gender-equality/" target="_blank">rapidly declining</a>.<br />
At the same time that incomes are collapsing, (14) Greeks (especially lower and middle class Greeks) <a href="http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_29/08/2014_542523" target="_blank">are the most heavily taxed citizens</a> in Europe. Often Greeks are literally <a href="http://damomac.wordpress.com/2014/10/06/were-dying-to-pay-our-taxes/" target="_blank">dying to pay their taxes</a>.... It is small wonder then that (15) <a href="http://damomac.wordpress.com/2014/09/16/greece-last-in-eu-social-justice-index/" target="_blank">Greece comes last in EU Social Justice</a> rankings<br />
(16) A massive <a href="http://www.enetenglish.gr/?i=news.en.article&id=1631" target="_blank">migration exodus</a> of the best and brightest has occurred, reducing the size of the Athenian ((17) <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(14)60252-X/fulltext" target="_blank">naturally declining</a>) youth population...<br />
(18) The police presence in Athens is so thick, it is reminiscent of a military dictatorship, while at the same time these same police officers - around (19) <a href="http://www.ansamed.info/ansamed/en/news/sections/politics/2014/05/27/greece-polls-over-50-of-police-voted-for-nazi-golden-dawn_45b5f742-d251-43eb-a8b7-1192beadc032.html" target="_blank">half of which vote for the Nazi Golden Dawn Party</a> - are (20) <a href="http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/impunity-excessive-force-and-links-extremist-golden-dawn-blight-greek-police-2014-04-03" target="_blank">infiltrated</a> by nazis and in (21) <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-19976841" target="_blank">collusion</a> with them, have (22) <a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2012/11/16/us_warns_greece_visitors_about_unprovoked_violent_attacks_against_foreigners.html" target="_blank">repeatedly</a> <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/01/10/greek-police-beat-up-another-illegal-immigrant-whos-actually-a-tourist/" target="_blank">attacked</a> any person (<a href="http://asiancorrespondent.com/91318/greek-police-beat-korean-tourist-stonewall-investigation/" target="_blank">tourists included</a>) who looks "suspiciously foreign", or doesn't wear proper clothes, or (23) <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/oct/09/greek-antifascist-protesters-torture-police" target="_blank">is fighting the Nazis</a>. Actual undocumented immigrants are (24) <a href="http://www.thetoc.gr/koinwnia/article/porisma-kolafos-gia-astunomia-basanismoi-metanastwn-me-methodous-xa" target="_blank">treated worse than animals</a>. Police brutality is so out of control, that <a href="http://en.enikos.gr/society/5713,57_of_Greeks_fear_police_torture.html" target="_blank">a majority of Greeks fear they might be tortured</a> in police custody. The Nazis (and 16% of the voters in the municipality of Athens voted for the Nazi candidate) are (25) still a threat, despite the fact that their leadership is now on trial, since they are pretty much given an implicit OK by the police to attack whoever they like, and that includes, say, gay couples (in a series of <a href="http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_25/08/2014_542360" target="_blank">attacks</a> this summer) and <a href="http://www.salon.com/2014/10/17/pigs_head_hate_slogans_at_athens_muslim_center/" target="_blank">religious minorities.</a> Police too, are often <a href="http://www.newnownext.com/cops-attack-gay-couple-in-athens-for-holding-hands-today-in-gay/07/2014/" target="_blank">blatantly homophobic</a>.<br />
In line with the authoritarian governing style a couple of years ago, the ministry of health (26)<a href="http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2013/09/14/ruins-chronicle-of-hiv-witch-hunt-documentary-on-hiv-criminalization-by-zoe-mavroudi/" target="_blank"> published pictures, personal data and names of 31 HIV-positive women</a> who lived in Athens, accused of prostitution.<br />
(27) A drug epidemic featuring, among other substances, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/may/16/greek-addicts-sisha-drug-crisis" target="_blank">a locally brewed version of crystal meth</a>, is also in full swing. Also of course, (28) <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-22/greek-prostitution-soars-150-youth-unempoyment-hits-75-some-areas" target="_blank">prostitution is booming</a>.<br />
Greeks in general are so happy that they (29) are<a href="http://www.euractiv.com/sections/health-consumers/study-austerity-driving-greeks-commit-suicide-301677" target="_blank"> killing themselves in unprecedented numbers</a>, for a country with traditionally low suicide rates. The broader Athens area is leading the country in this tragic statistic. Similarly for (30) <a href="http://greece.greekreporter.com/2014/10/26/cases-of-mental-illness-in-greece-have-increased/" target="_blank">mental illness</a> which has increased rapidly these past few years, while at the same time (31) the <a href="http://www.thepressproject.net/article/48409/Greece-has-no-more-psychiatric-clinics-effective-immediately" target="_blank">psychiatric infrastructure of the country</a> is collapsing. This is evident by now in the streets of Athens.<br />
Athenians, as all Greeks are thus (32) <a href="http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_09/09/2014_542769" target="_blank">deeply pessimistic</a> about the future. And they also have (33) <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/05/10/happiest-countries-in-world/8912123/" target="_blank">the OECD's lowest life satisfaction</a> score.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGUG6Fw5sB_txsRFDxBJ9DOrcLRugwk0sUIe1HRy7g-lQjAi7IA5F77dFbhGylSXjKBUSezFn54yqGfJXhZwjUMXb5IeHvTXAItCf_-WSAELjAXHdS_Afx8ltm8f2ce7l9gtO6-A/s1600/2014-03-06+16.29.47.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGUG6Fw5sB_txsRFDxBJ9DOrcLRugwk0sUIe1HRy7g-lQjAi7IA5F77dFbhGylSXjKBUSezFn54yqGfJXhZwjUMXb5IeHvTXAItCf_-WSAELjAXHdS_Afx8ltm8f2ce7l9gtO6-A/s1600/2014-03-06+16.29.47.jpg" height="640" width="480" /></a></div>
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<br />
The list can actually go well beyond 33. The only way for Athens to return to any kind of European normal is for its citizens to revolt against the criminal austerity policies that are killing it. Otherwise the new normal will be that of a demoralized Third World city.<br />
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taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-19042938132644850582013-10-07T22:10:00.001+03:002013-10-07T22:10:35.485+03:00German election post-mortem: European Love and Harmony; Exhibit I<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
In June I attended my children's elementary school end-of-the-year feast, a pleasant event with plays, dances and songs, along with displays of the kids' projects and art. Among the exhibitions was one of (selected?) drawings and images, from all grades. The pictures included, apart from the usual children's themes, a not-really-unexpected dose of social and political subjects: the crisis affects and often devastates all families and children are exposed to the worries and discussions of their kin. Most were implicitly political but a few were overtly so. Among them was this:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFiLRj7lR8fZVeCXHa9WcqCmfDx3VkLXwnNMECdYEaf31CkaFvoQ3q6kJ477Yd2h5F-hvYoKw8Qy9F6Sb9zi3sryTyqag1io_X8k2iF6f5EU7NUzQWMIQAnpieZgUQNmiY2ExLqA/s1600/2013-06-13+21.59.20.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFiLRj7lR8fZVeCXHa9WcqCmfDx3VkLXwnNMECdYEaf31CkaFvoQ3q6kJ477Yd2h5F-hvYoKw8Qy9F6Sb9zi3sryTyqag1io_X8k2iF6f5EU7NUzQWMIQAnpieZgUQNmiY2ExLqA/s400/2013-06-13+21.59.20.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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At the top the drawing reads "Greece will be saved if we could just kill Merkel". Underneath, intended as a title probably: "The Godmother". Angela Merkel's picture (from a magazine obviously) has horns and a Hitleresque mustache, and there is a speech bubble filled with Euro signs. The legend below the image reads: "Merkel revealed ("under the light") [to be] Hitler's granddaughter". It shocked no-one.<br />
<br />
This is not something that is significantly divergent from the general zeitgeist concerning the German government in Greece: my 9 year old son informed me one day, that 'Merkel' is used as an insult in his football practice.Which sort of ties in with the fact that last April <a href="http://www.publicissue.gr/wp-content/gallery/pi2013009_si2/8.jpg" target="_blank">Angela Merkel's negative ratings in Greece were at 87%</a> (vs 11% positive) up from 64% and 25% respectively, in March 2010.<br />
<br />
A wide majority of Greeks has been disenchanted with Germany. Last year Germany's unfavorable rating in Greece was (uniquely in the EU) <a href="http://www.pewglobal.org/2012/05/29/chapter-4-views-of-eu-countries-and-leaders/" target="_blank">at 78% negative</a>. But the disenchantment is broader: The <a href="http://www.publicissue.gr/2610/varometro-sep-2013/" target="_blank">latest poll numbers</a> are dismal regarding what used to be a solid backing for the European project:<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-w1VJiZ16Sc8/UlMADCXbIuI/AAAAAAAAA0I/UuwMg6R3d6Q/s1600/pi_EU.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="291" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-w1VJiZ16Sc8/UlMADCXbIuI/AAAAAAAAA0I/UuwMg6R3d6Q/s400/pi_EU.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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(blue = positive, red = negative opinion, left slide regarding the EU, right, the Euro)<br />
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The general trend has been similar:<br />
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<a href="http://nottspolitics.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Figure-1-440x258.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="230" src="http://nottspolitics.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Figure-1-440x258.png" width="400" /></a></div>
[<a href="http://nottspolitics.org/2013/02/26/the-eurozone-crisis-and-the-rise-of-soft-euroscepticism-in-greece/" target="_blank">via</a>]<br />
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<h4 style="text-align: left;">
The remembrance of past evils</h4>
The reality of being a <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/12/2012121974029736221.html" target="_blank">debt colony</a>, in which Merkel's "reforms" are a vehicle for<a href="http://histologion.blogspot.gr/2013/09/merkel-creating-desert-and-calling-it.html" target="_blank"> large scale societal destruction</a>, is not conducive to creating an atmosphere of cooperation and unity in the EU. The historical burden of a murderous Nazi occupation adds to the mix the aura of deja-vu. The misunderstanding regarding Merkel and her government being called Nazis in the popular / populist press, derives from this. In Greece the Nazis are first and foremost associated in popular memory (indeed living memory, still) not firstly with the Holocaust, but with <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Greece)" target="_blank">famine</a>: The last famine in Europe, created by the occupation, which killed perhaps 300.000 out of a total population of 7 million people. My mother in law remembers her grandmother starving to death to give her meager portions of food to her grandchildren and then being thrown into a cart (like the one pictured below) to be buried with nameless others into mass graves. (The irony of a Nazi party rising up in this context is biting...)<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/el/e/e9/%CE%91%CE%B8%CE%AE%CE%BD%CE%B1_%CE%9C%CE%B5%CE%B3%CE%AC%CE%BB%CE%BF%CF%82_%CE%9B%CE%B9%CE%BC%CF%8C%CF%82_1941_1942.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/el/e/e9/%CE%91%CE%B8%CE%AE%CE%BD%CE%B1_%CE%9C%CE%B5%CE%B3%CE%AC%CE%BB%CE%BF%CF%82_%CE%9B%CE%B9%CE%BC%CF%8C%CF%82_1941_1942.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
So when <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/06/greece-food-crisis-summer-austerity" target="_blank">starvation rears its ugly head</a> again, this time as well under "German orders", the fact that there is anti-German sentiment in the streets is hardly a surprise. It is indeed surprising that it has not gone overboard yet... Merkel's recent triumph is seen by many in Greece as a popular affirmation of homicidal policies. But of course this is short-sighted: In fact it is a test for the generalized dismantling of the whole European Social contract, which <a href="http://www.social-europe.eu/2013/10/did-the-dutch-start-the-end-of-social-europe/" target="_blank">the Dutch King officially announced</a> a few weeks ago...<br />
<br />
[I wrote a first quick commentary on the Nazi murder <a href="http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2013/9/30/222329/632" target="_blank">over at the European Tribune</a>. A more complete account is pending - which I will post here as well]</div>
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taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-57819091110427519582013-09-06T15:09:00.001+03:002013-09-10T21:50:40.059+03:00Merkel: Creating a desert and calling it 'reform'<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL23XZZxZrZY7hqPa9EF3EhaUpOqaS0pq_W8YNTC0x2ngrDSThRZn6FWdnd8rXw_XbjR54lUPWLzmspm6lMwUkxqaUdii_Frjh02oktAl0cCfo60h8cfOIcgfWNoxyriWIgQYN/s640/daaa41ac5ffea9ae25063b949e1177c3_XL%5B1%5D.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL23XZZxZrZY7hqPa9EF3EhaUpOqaS0pq_W8YNTC0x2ngrDSThRZn6FWdnd8rXw_XbjR54lUPWLzmspm6lMwUkxqaUdii_Frjh02oktAl0cCfo60h8cfOIcgfWNoxyriWIgQYN/s400/daaa41ac5ffea9ae25063b949e1177c3_XL%5B1%5D.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Reform</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">"<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130903-701756.html" target="_blank">We base our actions on the principle of quid pro quo," said Ms. Merkel</a>. "No cent for the Greek people as long as the Greek weren't willing to deliver and implement reforms. Otherwise it makes no sense because solidarity would come to nothing."</span></span></blockquote>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Ah reforms! I can assure Angela Merkel that these "reforms" she's actively seeking have been implemented for 3 and a half years now. <a href="http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_05/05/2013_497346" style="color: #1155cc;">The result</a>?</span></div>
<div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">After six consecutive years of brutal recession, with homeless and unemployment rates skyrocketing, Greek society is experiencing an "unheard-of fragmentation", made worse by fierce austerity measures, experts say...<br />...<span style="color: black;">this economic crisis has now transformed into a social emergency, according to UN expert on debt and human rights, Cephas Lumina.</span>During a recent visit to the country, Lumina said there had been "an estimated 25 percent increase in the country's homeless population since 2009" and the poverty rate for under-17s was close to 44 percent.<br />"Adjusted for inflation and using 2009 as the fixed poverty threshold, more than one out of three Greeks (38 percent) had already fallen below the poverty line in 2012," he estimated.<br />Drastic spending cuts imposed by the country's international creditors in exchange for multi-billion-euro bailouts has made a difficult situation even worse, many believe.</span></blockquote>
<div style="color: black; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">And how about the quid pro quo? Well <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/02/us-eurozone-bailouts-idUSBRE9410CG20130502" target="_blank">it turns out that</a>:</span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">...the truth remains that German taxpayers, as well as those in Finland, the Netherlands and elsewhere, are no worse off at all, and their finance ministries have racked up savings.<br />"As an unintentional consequence of the crisis, Finland has benefited enormously," said Martti Salmi, the head of international and EU affairs at Finland's ministry of finance.<br />"We have not lost a cent so far," he told Reuters. "The same as for <a href="http://www.reuters.com/places/germany">Germany</a> very much holds for Finland."<br />In fact, German officials are well aware of their stronger financing position, the result of a more than two percentage point fall in borrowing costs, even as politicians continue to lament the risks being piled on German taxpayers.<br />When giving presentations in Germany, Klaus Regling, the German who heads the euro zone's permanent bailout fund, often cites two studies that show that Berlin has reaped substantial savings as an unintended consequence of the crisis...</span></blockquote>
<div style="color: black; text-align: left;">
It is even worse: we all know at this point that the whole First Memorandum with the troika had as its single goal to give time to EU (mainly) banks, exposed to Greek debt to cover their backsides and get rid of Greek government bonds. Had Greece defaulted on its debt the whole european banking system would totter at the even greater expense of the European and partucularly German taxpayer. What we had was basically <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-23/merkel-should-know-her-country-has-been-bailed-out-too.html" target="_blank">a German bank bailout</a> disguised as a Greek state bailout:</div>
<blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">...It’s hard to quantify exactly how much Germany has benefited from its European bailout. One indicator would be the amount German banks pulled out of other euro-area countries since the crisis began. According to the BIS, they yanked $353 billion from December 2009 to the end of 2011 (the latest data available). Another would be the increase in the Bundesbank’s claims on other euro-area central banks. That amounts to 466 billion euros ($590 billion) from December 2009 through April 2012, though it would also reflect non-German depositors moving their money into German banks.</span><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">By comparison, Greece has received a total of about 340 billion euros [this was written in May 2012 and it seems too large, it was 240 billion Euros at the time] in official loans to recapitalize its banks, replace fleeing capital, restructure its debts and help its government make ends meet. Only about 15 billion euros of that has come directly from Germany. The rest is all from the ECB, the EU and the International Monetary Fund.</span></blockquote>
But even this is misleading, since "the Greek" <a href="http://www.greekdefaultwatch.com/2013/05/the-greek-bailout-balance-sheet-20102012.html" target="_blank">aren't getting much of that 240 billion EUuros directly</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">The Greek government needed €247 billion in the period from 2010—2012. Of that, a mere 7.7% went to finance the government’s deficit—the rest went for other purposes. Around 15.4% went to pay interest on debt—this money went to both domestic and foreign investors. Another 12.3% went to repay Greek investors who held government bonds that were expiring in that period. A full 24.3%, the largest item, went to repay foreign holders of Greek government bonds—in sum, almost €60 billion. Around 18% went to recapitalize banks, 14% went to support the PSI (such as buying back debt) and 8.6% went for other operations. </span></blockquote>
So: No "cents" for the Greek people. Plenty of cents for the local banksters and oligarchs who are doing quite well.<br />
<br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
Deform</h3>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.biozo.gr/metagnosi/files/pictures/Sintagma_via01_2011-128.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="286" src="http://www.biozo.gr/metagnosi/files/pictures/Sintagma_via01_2011-128.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
This whole absurdist <a href="http://histologion.blogspot.gr/2012/06/levy-your-myths-on-greece.html" target="_blank">narrative</a> about unreformed Greeks is the modern German version of the foreign scapegoat diversion. I have lamented on this blog over the past few years of austerian shock and awe about the ensuing Greek drama, the societal dissolution and destruction, the creation of a country with even more feudal income divides and the annihilation of democracy. I do understand that <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-04/merkel-s-frugal-stance-on-greece-aid-no-1-vote-winner-cdu-says.html" target="_blank">this inane hate-mongering brings in the vote</a>, but it is shocking that petty electoral posturing, can be so unprincipled as to perpetuate a policy that can only be described as <a href="http://histologion.blogspot.gr/2012/06/merkel-and-schauble-thin-line-between.html" target="_blank">a fiscal crime against humanity</a>, not only in Greece but across the EU South.<br />
Merkel and the CDU policies have created through this "reform" a country in which an increasing minority <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/06/greece-food-crisis-summer-austerity" target="_blank">lives in squalor</a>, where <a href="http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/05/21/304683/suicide-rate-in-greece-hits-50yr-high/" target="_blank">suicides have reached historical </a>records, an already meager number of <a href="http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_15/07/2013_509357" target="_blank">births have declined precipitously</a>, <a href="http://qz.com/85466/greeces-200-increase-in-hiv-shows-how-disastrous-austerity-can-be-for-public-health/" target="_blank">AIDS infections have soared</a> and infant mortality has increased - at the same time that the (far-right nutcase) Health Minister introduces <a href="http://www.edgeonthenet.com/health_fitness/hiv_aids//148066/greek_health_minister_institutes_mandatory_hiv_testing" target="_blank">mandatory HIV testing</a> to the <a href="http://international.radiobubble.gr/2013/07/reinstatement-of-controversial-health.html" target="_blank">world's astonishment</a>.<br />
They have also created an economy practically without any labor protections,where<a href="http://www.ansamed.info/ansamed/en/news/sections/economics/2013/09/06/Greece-austerity-push-unemployment-31-5-union_9255467.html" target="_blank"> obscene levels of unemployment</a> and employee fear and desperation, mix with the rise of temp agency workers with no rights and protections at all, <a href="http://greece.greekreporter.com/2013/08/31/unpaid-1-1-million-greek-workers/" target="_blank">uncertain pay-days</a> and a vast number of undeclared / <a href="http://greece.greekreporter.com/2013/05/21/uninsured-work-in-greece-reached-39-4-percent/" target="_blank">uninsured jobs</a>, to create a labor market truly of the Third World. The ILO is calling on the Greek government and the troika that manages it to <a href="http://greece.greekreporter.com/2012/11/16/ilo-wants-greece-to-restore-labor-rights/" target="_blank">restore universally accepted labor right</a>s, at the same time that <a href="http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite6_1_01/07/2013_506822" target="_blank">child-labor is on the rise</a>. Strikers get <a href="http://blogs.euobserver.com/phillips/2013/02/01/puppies-and-ice-cream/" target="_blank">conscripted by the government</a>... Privatisations are overseen by <a href="http://www.enetenglish.gr/?i=news.en.society&id=1419" target="_blank">idiots</a>, handing over profitable state companies to <a href="http://www.vice.com/en_se/read/unfollow-magazine-oil-smuggling-aegean-oil" target="_blank">gangsters</a> amid an <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/199b1fea-0827-11e3-badc-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2e8anFxAs" target="_blank">orgy of corruption</a> and public goods are on a fire-sale. The remaining industrial capacity in the country <a href="http://www.enetenglish.gr/?i=news.en.economy&id=1448" target="_blank">is being destroyed</a>. Tax evaders are being protected by <a href="http://eagainst.com/articles/greece-journalist-kostas-vaxevanis-arrested-over-the-notorious-lagard-list/" target="_blank">prosecuting whistleblowers</a>,<br />
At the same time this social massacre and redistribution is being overseen by the most right-wing- not to mention the most corrupt - government since the junta. A government that <a href="http://vladtepesblog.com/2012/08/07/greece-according-to-minister-migration-wave-equals-invasion/" target="_blank">peddles to the already rampant xenophobia</a>, sets up <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/11/illegal-immigrants-riot-greece" target="_blank">concentration camps</a> for immigrants and refugees, uses police to <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/teacherdudebbq2/8531547211/" target="_blank">crack down on any kind of protests</a> and terrorize immigrants or youth on a regular basis and then <a href="http://www.coe.int/t/commissioner/news/2013/130416greecereport_EN.asp" target="_blank">awards them impunity</a>. The governing conservative party is also <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/oct/09/greek-antifascist-protesters-torture-police" target="_blank">in cahoots with the Nazi gangs</a> that are now in parliament, increasing in strength. Decisions in government are being made by the PM alone, bills pass either without meaningful debate in parliament, or <a href="http://blogs.euobserver.com/phillips/2013/01/21/decree-o-matic-the-peripherys-permanent-state-of-exception/" target="_blank">by decree</a>, and private TV channels are <b>all</b> supporting the government and fighting the Left opposition tooth and claw in a media landscape that feels like a privatized North Korea, since all of them are owned by oligarchs with ties to the ruling parties. Meanwhile, <a href="http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/18335-the-shutdown-of-ert-and-greeces-media-landscape-a-modern-day-wild-wild-west" target="_blank">ERT, the public broadcaster was illegally shut down</a> to be replaced by a farcical "Public TV" that is so pro-government that it has absolutely no credibility (and viewers) and opposition parties refuse to participate in discussions it holds...<br />
<br />
That is the "reform" Ms. Merkel is pushing for in Greece. If one thinks that this is desirable, or that somehow this has nothing to do with general plans for the post-European-Social-Contract EU, well I can add nothing more. The CDU government is tearing Europe apart, creating across the EU South and the Periphery in general such resentment for Germany and the core countries and such social disruption that it is destroying not only the lives of those swarthy southerners but the European project as a communal goal. It seems probable that the CDU-FDP coalition will prevail in this month's German elections. This will signal the end of the EU as we know it. And Ms Merkel's "solidarity" will be remembered as a bad, German joke.</div>
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taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-86153415094939144752013-02-14T17:10:00.001+02:002013-02-15T04:19:08.588+02:00The Greek debacle 2013: Of paupers and taxes<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/picture/2013/feb/06/greece-debt-crisis" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="266" src="http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/guardian/Pix/pictures/2013/2/6/1360154060220/People-reach-out-reach-ou-008.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Via <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/picture/2013/feb/06/greece-debt-crisis" target="_blank">the Guardian</a>: "Athenians reach out for a bag of oranges during a free distribution of fruit and vegetables by farmers outside the Agriculture Ministry. The farmers are staging the event to protest against high production costs, including rising fuel prices"</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
It used to be the case that I would need some time and effort to select incidents that would be telling enough and substantially reported in the media enough to give readers a taste of the societal collapse and the democratic decay that is occurring in Greece under the yoke of the troika and its willing executioners among the political elites. These days its simple enough: just check the past few days' headlines.<br />
<br />
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
Social collapse </h4>
On the societal collapse side Alex Politaki in the Guardian, states the obvious: <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/feb/11/greece-humanitarian-crisis-eu" target="_blank">Greece is facing a humanitarian crisis</a>, deep and unprecedented during peacetime in the West:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">"...There are three more indicators that point to a humanitarian crisis.
First, the number of homeless people has risen to unprecedented levels
for a European country: unofficial estimates put them at 40,000. Second,
the proportion of Greek beneficiaries of NGO medical services in some
urban centres was recorded at 60% of the total in 2012. This would have
been unthinkable even three years ago, since such services were
typically provided to immigrants, not Greeks.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">Third, there has
been explosive growth in soup kitchens and general food distribution.
The levels are not officially recorded, but the Church of Greece
distributes approximately 250,000 daily rations, while there are unknown
numbers of rations distributed by municipal authorities and NGOs. By
recent government order, municipal rations will be expanded further
because of rising incidence of children fainting at school due to low
calorie intake. There will also be light meals provided to young
students..."</span></blockquote>
<br />
A recent <a href="http://www.imegsevee.gr/attachments/article/602/SURVEY_HOUSEHOLDS%20INCOME-%20EXPENDITURE_Dec%20_2012%20L.pdf" target="_blank">survey by the Hellenic Confederation of Professionals, Craftsmen and Merchants</a> [GSEVEE - Warning: Bad English], put some numbers behind this:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">...Half the population is in danger of finding themselves economically marginalized (fail to meet tax obligations, owe loans, and buy goods of inferior quality in order to meet their obligations). </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">93.1 % of the households have seen their incomes reduced several times during the crisis period. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">40% of the households have at least one unemployed member.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">72% of the households expect new income reductions during 2013</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">40% of households delay paying debts in order to meet obligations, while 50% lacks sufficient income to meet their obligations.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">42.5% of households search for products and services of lower quality and look for enterprises that are willing to offer such products and services</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">The heavy tax burden on products and services combined with the shrinking and over-taxation of incomes “softens” tax morals thus threatening to reduce public revenues too. 47% of the population, and rising, condones various methods of sales tax and VAT evasion</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">Only 12.6% of households stated as main source of income their businesses. The main income contribution for households comes from pensions (42.6%)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">70% of households have cut back on food expenses, while 92% reduced expenses for clothing - footwear</span></li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
All this is happening against a backdrop of <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/14/greece-umeployment-idUSEMS2BX7KT20130214" target="_blank">record unemployment</a> along with <a href="http://www.npr.org/2013/02/06/170689489/for-greeks-painful-cuts-keep-tearing-at-the-social-fabric" target="_blank">health indicator reversals </a>previously unheard of in the western world, as after "three years of austerity cuts... life expectancy is dropping, while infant mortality has grown by 4 percent"...<br />
<br />
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
Looting the Poor as Economic Strategy</h4>
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
</h4>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The collapse of Greek society is evident to all but the elites and their government: After the finance minister Yianis Stournaras blamed the decline of heating oil consumption on citizens having bought heating oil before the new tax hikes - despite the widely documented shutting down of central heating in the majority of Athens flats and houses - and <a href="http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_12/02/2013_482869" target="_blank">Finance Ministry general secretary Giorgos Mergos</a> statement about 580 Euros (before taxes) being "too high" a minimum salary, one is certain that the people in charge have a rather inaccurate idea of what is happening in Greek streets and homes.<br />
<br />
The latest outrage is that the government is threatening to confiscate property, wages and bank accounts of any person owing the tax revenue office more than 300 Euros. This, at a time when the tax burden has become so absurdly high in Greece that half the population does not believe they will be able to pay all of their tax, basic utility and loan obligations in 2013. Keep in mind that these are taxes on last year's incomes - and last year's incomes are significantly higher, 4 years now in a row, for a large majority of Greeks than this year's; new taxes have also been levied either as emergency contributions, or special levies, or on small, non-income bearing property that used to be non-taxable. Indirect taxes have soared. A significant portion of people are "tax-evading" nowadays as the GSEVEE survey shows, simply to be able to survive or because they have literally no money. There are furthermore persistent rumours and leaks from majority MPs that the troika is pressuring the Greek government to withdraw the legal protection against foreclosure of people's residences that has been mandated until the end of the year. This will mean mass evictions.<br />
<br />
Thus the ministry of finance is planning to send warning letters to <i>2.5 million</i> citizens, threatening to take away property (which BTW they can't sell to raise money anyway since the real estate market is dead as a doornail, and any sale is now taxed at a much higher "objective value" than its actual market price) or commandeer bank deposits and salaries, unless their owners come to some sort of settlement with the tax service. Now since the <a href="http://histologion.blogspot.gr/2012/09/greece-class-warfare-banksters-and.html" target="_blank">actual tax laws have become ever more regressive</a>, richer folks can and will easily arrive at some such deal. Poorer people, including many pauperized, unemployed or even homeless will most likley not be able to afford <i>any</i> deal and this can lead them, even if they have nothing that the taxman can take, to <a href="http://greece.greekreporter.com/2013/01/28/greece-plans-tax-evader-prisons/" target="_blank">prison</a>! Even for <a href="http://www.imerisia.gr/article.asp?catid=26509&subid=2&pubid=112919141" target="_blank">owing as little as 3000 Euros</a> according to the plan. So the ones most heavily targeted and affected will be the poorest, usually those with the least tax or fine debts and a real difficulty to pay up. The <a href="http://www.tovima.gr/finance/article/?aid=497764" target="_blank">numbers however that the Greek Government is publishing</a> show that cracking down on the least indebted will bring significantly fewer rewards than targetting the big fish: While 2.3 million tax-payers owing each under 3000 Euros have a total debt that adds up to 1.1 billion Euros, the top 6.270 debtors owe the Greek tax office over 35 billion Euros! This at the same time that <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/18/us-greece-probe-idUSBRE90H02M20130118" target="_blank">the Lagarde list of Swiss bank account holders</a> is causing serious trouble to the political and financial elites, despite it being just the tip of the iceberg of chronic millionaire tax-evasion...</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
To top all this off, the ministry of finance has circulated a proposal to have everyone over 18 file a tax report (including high-school and university students) even if they remain dependents. They, along with every living Greek no matter how destitute, will be taxed based on a fictitious income of 3000 Euros, which the government claims they must be making if they are surviving. This is literally <b>a tax on breathing</b>, and it means that kids living with their parents (and remember, that's a lot of people in Greece, youth unemployment is over 50%) will be taxed 75 Euros unless they can show expenses receipts that add up to 750 Euros for the year. This is in reality a double taxation of their parents incomes. Of course, more poignantly, this means that even the 40.000+ homeless must either show 750 Euros worth of expenses or else face paying 75 Euros in taxes. Insanity.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
And guess what? After all this <a href="http://greece.greekreporter.com/2013/02/07/tax-hikes-backfire-greeces-revenues-plummet/" target="_blank">tax revenues are plummeting</a>:</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">Despite big tax hikes as part of austerity measures demanded by
international lenders, tax revenues fell precipitously in January, with
the Greek Finance Ministry reporting a 16 percent decrease from a year
earlier, and a loss of 775 million euros, or $1.05 billion in one month. </span></div>
</blockquote>
This is an economic policy leading to a failed state - a debt colony with pauperized natives. And Greece is just the guinea-pig for the rest of the EU South and beyond...<br />
<br />
<i>All this is of course not compatible with democracy: my next post will detail recent events in the slide towards undemocracy under the iron fist of a government of right-wing extremists...</i><br />
<br />
<i>[<a href="http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2013/2/14/211727/985" target="_blank">Edited and reposted at the European tribune</a>] </i></div>
taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-51284844104574921702013-01-21T04:35:00.001+02:002013-01-21T05:12:14.877+02:00The Troika's Smog<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://sphotos-e.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/224900_10151175988803085_567843540_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="115" src="http://sphotos-e.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/224900_10151175988803085_567843540_n.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Athens has been covered on and off these past couple of months <a href="http://photoblog.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/01/02/16309192-smog-hits-athens-residents-resort-to-wood-burning-for-heat?lite" target="_blank">by a thick smog produced by smoke from fireplaces and wood stoves</a>. This is not strictly of course an Athenian phenomenon: all over Greece (and especially Northern Greece) towns and <a href="http://www.demotix.com/news/1727068/smoke-haze-over-skyline-thessaloniki-due-economic-crisis#media-1727060" target="_blank">cities</a> are enveloped this winter by an acrid smelling smog consisting of burning wood fumes and ashes, mingled with all sorts of toxic substances. As with most of the societal plagues brought on Greece these past few years, this too is a direct result of troikan austerity gone wild and a Greek government unable to protect its citizens.<br />
The troika demanded and the Greek government acquiesced to, a tax increase on heating oil, the stuff that powers most central heating in Greek buildings, bringing its price at the same level as transportation gas. Already the price of a litre of gas at the pump in Greece <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/adding-insult-injury-greek-gas-prices-are-now-highest-europe" target="_blank">was the highest in the EU</a>, thanks to previous rounds of taxes on gas mandated by the troika. Gas prices went up by over 50% in Greece since 2009, mostly due to excise taxes. This, combined with a decline in real average income in the country of around 40-50%, led to <a href="http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_12/07/2012_451874" target="_blank">a<i> decrease </i>in tax receipts</a> from gas taxes of the order of 1.5 billion Euros.<br />
Now apparently as heating oil has become a luxury that most people cannot afford (and with most of the population living in apartment buildings, if one resident in a block of flats cannot afford it, this means that the whole building does not buy heating oil and everyone is on their own to figure out a way to keep warm) consumption has reportedly dropped by as much as 80%. This means that alternatives to central heating must be found. Thus a lot of people turn to electric, grid powered heaters (your's truly included), that are now cheaper than oil and as many use fireplaces, and old wood stoves, <a href="http://greece.greekreporter.com/2012/12/08/three-boys-burned-alive-inside-their-family-home-in-greece/" target="_blank">occasionally with tragic consequences</a>.<br />
We are now discovering that picturesque and traditional methods of heating seen in villages <i>don't scale</i>. In fact I just realized how darn environmentally friendly heating oil is compared to burning things in a fireplace or a stove. And I do mean <i>things</i>: "<a href="http://world-countries.net/archives/157623" target="_blank">People are burning furniture, plastic, construction materials and even their slippers</a>" to heat themselves when it does get cold. This makes <a href="http://www.setimes.com/cocoon/setimes/xhtml/en_GB/features/setimes/features/2013/01/18/feature-03" target="_blank">the toxic mix of deleterious fumes covering major cities, even more unhealthy</a>:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"A group of scientists from seven research centres are taking smog
readings in several cities through February 10th to assess the
environmental impact from the increased use of fireplaces and
wood-burning stoves, the Athens network SKAI TV reported.<br />
The scientists, together with the Centre for Disease Control and
Prevention, have warned that burning wood in the home releases 30 times
more air pollution than using a well-maintained heating oil or
gas-burning boiler.
<br />
They found that concentrations of particulates in the atmosphere from
wood smoke increased 200 percent from December 2010 to the same period
in 2012, stressing that the problem is especially acute at night, when
demand for heating increases. The centre warned an increase in air
pollution can lead to respiratory problems as well as aggravating
allergies and disturb the neurological and reproductive systems. </blockquote>
<br />
The price of firewood has, naturally, doubled since last year, so the incentive to chop down trees in forests and parks is great. In fact both <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324442304578232280995369300.html?mod=googlenews_wsj" target="_blank">parks and national forests have suffered great losses</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<br />
As winter temperatures bite, that trend is dealing a serious blow to
the environment, as hillsides are denuded of timber and smog from fires
clouds the air in Athens and other cities, posing risks to public
health.<br />
The number of illegal logging cases jumped in 2012, said forestry
groups, while the environment ministry has lodged more than 3,000
lawsuits and seized more than 13,000 tons of illegally cut trees.<br />
Such woodcutting was last common in Greece during Germany's brutal
occupation in the 1940s, underscoring how five years of recession and
waves of austerity measures have spawned drastic measures</blockquote>
As one could have easily imagined in the first place, <a href="http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2013/01/03/measure-backfires-greece-loses-e400-million-from-heating-oil-tax-increase/" target="_blank">the measure flopped revenue-wise</a>:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Oil suppliers claim of a 75-80% sales decrease for the period
October-November-December 2012, when compared to the same period of
2011. Greek Fuel Suppliers Association estimates that the black hole in
the state pockets are <a href="http://www.newsit.gr/default.php?pname=Article&art_id=183512&catid=3" target="_blank">400 million euro </a>due to the sharp decrease in heating oil sales.</blockquote>
The Finance Minister, Yiannis Stournaras, an Economics Professor, Banker and former head of the Greek Industrialists' Economic Think Tank IOBE, was however adamant, having the perfect economics background to help him deny what is palpably (indeed chillingly) evident to every bloody citizen in the country: <a href="http://www.thenationalherald.com/article/57942" target="_blank">He has refused any extra aid to poor families</a>, advising the freezing to "to be patient for another year" and wait out the cold. Really. And he also attributed the collapse of heating-oil revenues to "people having stockpiled heating oil from last year" despite the fact that it is <i>consumption</i> of heating oil that has declined by 80%. Obviously the economic cult he belongs to is loathe to price-in "externalities" such as health effects, fire hazards and illegal wood-cutting. The troika however seems happy with the results - and who are the victims of its policies to disagree? (although allegedly the troika demanded leveling the tax on heating and transport oil, to fight smuggling, but didn't state to what level - it was Stournaras who chose the highest of the two prices). Since people are turning to the power grid for heating BTW, a pinch of "energy liberalization" will see that this too becomes untenable, as electricity consumers <a href="http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2013/01/04/greek-public-power-company-to-increase-welfare-levy-and-fatten-electricity-bill/" target="_blank">will see a 9% hike on their bills</a> (higher for smaller consumptions, smaller for larger ones!), pending a rumoured 20% increase spread over 2013. Already the Public Power Corporation is cutting off power to customers that can't pay <a href="http://greece.greekreporter.com/2012/11/16/greece-cuts-power-for-unpaid-bills/" target="_blank">at a rate of 30.000 connections a month</a>! This means that ~300-500.000 households in Greece are living without electricity - literally powerless. Truly an achievement worthy of a Nobel Peace Prize... <br />
<br />
The heating debacle is the perfect example of austerian madness as misanthrope feast. It has no point, it doesn't achieve its stated goals, and it has tremendously disastrous side-effects. It adds one more in the troika's long list of crimes against humanity in the European South and serves to demonstrate the imbecility of the current government and its experts... </div>
taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-13859804693732972012-09-29T19:40:00.002+03:002012-10-01T00:37:18.379+03:00Greece: Class warfare, banksters and money laundering <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Instead of an analysis of what kind of "austerity measures" and for whom the troika and its vassals in the Greek government have been preparing, I'll just show you a table of taxes before and after the <a href="http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=el&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.capital.gr%2Ftax%2FNews_tax.asp%3Fid%3D1626686">the new tax system,</a> that is part of the latest austerity package, is implemented, by income category. This is income tax only, it does not include social security taxes... The really fun part is at the bottom of the table [from Capital.gr, I took the liberty of translating the labels]<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9uHUrEYtsXQ/UGW1mNGrSrI/AAAAAAAAAoA/kfC6Dr9VLhw/s1600/foroi_en.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9uHUrEYtsXQ/UGW1mNGrSrI/AAAAAAAAAoA/kfC6Dr9VLhw/s1600/foroi_en.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A fair tax system</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
This comes on top of a new tax system for freelancers / professionals, which imposes a flat tax (somewhere at the 25-35% range as government sources are leaking) from the first Euro earned, on all such non-wage earners, on top of a 500 Euro per annum fee. Now it is true that <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/sep/09/greece-tax-evasion-professional-classes" target="_blank">a mass of tax-evaders are such "free professionals"</a> as they are called here (doctors, lawyers, engineers, but also designers, translators etc), included though in this category are precarious and part-time workers, young people with under minimum wage employment, second jobs etc.The number of the underpaid young, and not only, professionals that are in this category is perhaps over 250.000. So these people will be asked to be some obscene amount of their income in taxes (include another 500 - 5000 Euro on social security tax, depending on seniority - again not depending income) and ~300.000 professionals have zero or negative income this year after taxes. On the other hand if you are making over 100k per year, you have just moved the part over 100k, from a 45%, and everything between 60k and 100k from a 40% income bracket to the 25-35% rate. Bizarrely this is sold as "taxing the tax-evading professionals", because the government has stopped even trying to make some sort of mathematical sense and hopes that soundbites substitute for arithmetic for enough people....<br />
<br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
A cash injection for corruption</h3>
This new series of destructive measures estimated to be upwards of 14 billion Euros (that's like 7% of GDP and rising) would be enough to kill the economy if it weren't dead already. That this is demanded by the troika despite the fact that unemployment is climbing toward 30%, <a href="http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2012/09/13/greece-in-imf-700k-people-with-zero-income-23-6-unemployment-in-q212-700k-with-zero-income/" target="_blank">about a million and a half Greeks are living in households with no income at all</a>, and that, if things go as planned, by the end of next year we will be well beyond a Great Depression scale slump, at a projected GDP decline of 30% over 5 years, does not seem to bother anyone that "matters". The new coalition government, elected on a platform of renegotiating the terms of the memorandum or at least lightening up the burden of austerity, is sending its electoral program to the dust-bin, proceeding with measures such as a reduction of farmers' pensions (from 330 Euros to 300 euros per month). <a href="http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/9/24/business/12071547&sec=business" target="_blank">Greek society is near unanimous in condemning this policy as unfair</a> , but Samaras is adamant that he will honor none of his pre-election pledges and <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/greek-prime-minister-samaras-asks-for-more-time-for-austerity-a-851379.html" target="_blank">has been running around Europe playing the role of the good and obedient vassal</a>.<br />
<br />
What's at stake is the loan installment of 40 billion euros that will be used among other things to recapitalize already bankrupt and bailed-out private banks. <a href="http://www.ekathimerini.com/4Dcgi/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_02/09/2012_459387" target="_blank">This recapitalization was supposed to have occurred in the first half of 2012</a>, following the successful completion of the PSI deal, yet the troika has unilaterally and against all signed agreements, held the loan back... Preparations are being made: the publicly owned banks, although arguably in better shape than the private ones, were exempt from the PSI recapitalization deal, (as were the pension funds with truly murderous consequences) are <a href="http://www.grreporter.info/en/post_bank%E2%80%99s_shares_tumbled_after_stournaras%E2%80%99_statement/7587" target="_blank">being given</a> to bankrupt private banks, surviving only due to loans shouldered by the Greek taxpayer. ATE, owner of mortgages of half the farming land in the country <a href="http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2012/07/28/greeces-banks-deal-piraeus-bank-absorbs-healthy-assets-of-ate-bank/" target="_blank">was given away to Piraeus bank</a> recently, but only the healthy parts: the bad parts will still be shouldered by the taxpayers. Piraeus bank incidentally, apart from being the recipient of successive bailout funds, <a href="http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2012/07/18/bankruptocracy-in-the-greek-sector-of-bailoutistan-the-aftermath-of-the-reuters-report-on-piraeus-bank/" target="_blank">was involved in a scandal recently</a>, something exceptional as news, only because banks are almost fully protected from media scrutiny in Greece... Since the Greek banking system is the at the heart of clientilism and
cronyism and since there are media magnates and other oligarchs in dire
need of a liquidity transfusion, the whole corrupt banker - oligarch - political
complex, is in urgent need of this loan. Public contractors and state suppliers will acquire liquidity, political parties in the verge of bankruptcy (ND and PASOK, especially PASOK) might avoid it, and the cientilist system can be set in motion again, albeit at a much lower rate of return for the troikan parties' bought voters.<br />
<br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
10 billion euros laundered</h3>
Meanwhile, one of the few remaining relatively independent, if right-leaning newspapers in Greece published an amazing story, that if confirmed might offer a view of the scale of plunder that the country has been subjected to by the elites. Real News published last Sunday details of an investigation on money laundering <b>involving over 10 billion Euros</b>, <a href="http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_26/09/2012_463148" target="_blank">the current Speaker of parliament, Vangelis Meimarakis</a>, and at least two more conservative former ministers: <br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">...Meimarakis is one of more than 30 politicians and public figures who
have come under the microscope following a probe by the Financial Crimes
Squad (SDOE) into corruption in public life.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">Prosecutor Popi
Papandreou, who has taken over the probe from SDOE, is expected to focus
on claims against Meimarakis, former Transport Minister Michalis Liapis
and former Public Order Minister Giorgos Voulgarakis.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">All three
were implicated in a multi-billion-euro money-laundering network in a
Real News report last Sunday. Before summoning the three politicians,
Papandreou is expected to call two contractors -- Iosif Livanos and
Giorgos Zografakis -- who allegedly accused the three ex-ministers of
involvement in money laundering with rival contractor Yiannis Carouzos.</span></blockquote>
This investigation was under wraps and going nowhere for at least a year and a half. The Speaker of the House maintains his innocence and <a href="http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/58339" target="_blank">has definitely lost his cool</a>, although this sort of macho - hoodlum behavior is par for the course in today's New Democracy...<br />
<br />
This is BTW why the Greek elites and their media are in complete terror that a party like SYRIZA, with no ties to this pyramid of corruption, might eventually win an election. In point of fact SYRIZA's immediate economic program is not much to the left of Paul Krugman. What is destabilizing however is the threat of local elites losing control of the web of graft that they cling on to since their grandfathers emerged after the war, as nazi-friendly black-marketeers who bought a suit and became businessmen. That EU elites chose to support the parties that nurtured this system, is probably telling as to where their interests lie...<br />
<br />
<br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
Postscript: Athens. Social Meltdown</h3>
Finally, this is a very good brief recap of Greece's turmoil and destruction these past two years, from the ground:<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="281" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" src="http://player.vimeo.com/video/50028620" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" width="500"></iframe> <br />
<a href="http://vimeo.com/50028620">Athens: Social Meltdown</a> from <a href="http://vimeo.com/user1026518">Ross Domoney</a> on <a href="http://vimeo.com/">Vimeo</a>.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2012/9/30/17364/7999" target="_blank"><i>Cross-posted at Eurotrib</i></a></div>
taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-62881075311450687452012-09-10T02:25:00.003+03:002012-09-18T20:30:48.897+03:00Comical Welt: All's well in the austerity front. No, really!<table align="center"><tr><td align="center"><img align="center" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XrrkpB3Db9c/UE0cen5Fd5I/AAAAAAAAAnw/bM3lHQ3OwSI/s1600/comical_ali.jpg"></td></tr></table><br>
This has to be read to be believed "Die Welt: <a href="http://worldcrunch.com/business-finance/happy-days-ahead-euro-zone-austerity-measures-starting-to-work/euro-crisis-austerity-greece-recovery/c2s9503/#.UEz1VK6XO78">Happy Days Ahead? Euro Zone Austerity Measures Starting To Work</a>" [<a href="http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article108928782/Krisen-Laender-erholen-sich-schneller-als-erwartet.html">Original in German</a>]:<p>
<blockquote>If the numbers are right, the European crisis countries are apparently healing faster than the markets have realized -- or want to realize.<p>
An astonishingly positive total picture emerges from the various statistics. The economies of the euro zone's periphery nations are more competitive than they were just a few months ago; their industries are selling more abroad, and trade deficits are narrowing.<p>
"Blood, sweat and tears -- everything people in these economies have been through is paying off," says Bert Colijn, a jobs market expert with Conference Board, a private economic research institute." The competitivity of the crisis countries is improving, and these first signs of improvement are encouraging. The periphery countries are moving in the right direction."</blockquote>
What is this right direction that brings PIIGS singing out in joy at the <strong>good</strong> effects of austerity? Well people there are working for pennies now! And doesn't that make <em>everybody</em> happy?<p>
<blockquote>One particularly salutary development is cheaper labor costs. In Ireland, Spain and even Greece, unit labor costs have fallen significantly over the past few years. Conference Board economist Colijn and his colleague Bart van Ark researched that development, and report that of all the euro zone countries, the one that has increased its competitivity most is Ireland. Unit labor costs in Irish industry have fallen by 41.5 percent since 2008, which means that labor costs in Ireland are lower than they are in Poland and other middle and eastern European countries.</blockquote><p>
So we're there? Ordoliberal austerity's Land of Canaan has been reached? Herbert Hoover has been vindicated? Well not quite yet... it remains for the Archons of Investment to take heed of the redemption of the sinners, and in, a not quite adequately determined time-frame, we will have some sort of Growth and Jobs:<br>
<blockquote>It will take time before lower unit labor costs produce full effects, but already they have made goods from those countries cheaper. In the long run, it will make them more interesting to investors. <p>
At the moment, however, uncertainty about the future of the monetary union is keeping companies from investing. Only when they start investing again can the results of lowered costs bear its real fruit in creating growth and jobs.</blockquote><p>
Yes. At last! We're talking low paying jobs of course. And no welfare state - goes without saying. Possibly a large spike at infant mortality. And those pensions? Well the good thing about a reduced life expectancy is that fewer will feel their absence...<p>
But let's try to confirm the "competitivity" improvement under austerity for most of the PIIGS countries from 2008 to 2012. We'll be using The Global Competitiveness Report, a composite index that has more to do with an investor's take on how they would like a country to be, rather than anything else. As investor sentiment seems to be the driving argument in the quoted article it seems useful to check the related rankings... So:<p>
<ul>
<li> In the Global Competitiveness Index rankings for 2007-2008, <a href="https://members.weforum.org/pdf/GCR08/GCR08.pdf">Portugal was ranked 43d</a>, yet this year <a href="http://reports.weforum.org/global-competitiveness-report-2012-2013/">it is ranked 49th</a>...<p>
<li> Ireland was ranked 22d in 2007-2008, and 27th this year (despite or probably <strong>because</strong> of the >40% drop in unit labor values there I wonder?)<p>
<li> Italy was the only one of the PIIGS countries to improve from 49th (2007) to 42d, possibly because it was the country least inflicted with austerity of the five<p>
<li> Greece has dived from 67th place to 96th, as its economy was destroyed by unprecedented turbo austerity<p>
<li> Spain dropped from 29th to 36th.<p>
</ul>
Is that an improvement or what?<p>
The whole propagandistic tenor of the piece (fox news on weed) is breathtaking since it is running counter to pretty much every published assessment of the situation. For example <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-28/spanish-recession-deepens-as-austerity-undermines-outlook-1-.html">Bloomberg recently wrote about Spain</a> that:<p>
<blockquote>"We fear that things are likely to get worse before they get better," said Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING Bank in Amsterdam, who expects Spain will seek additional financial aid as early as next month. "With much more fiscal austerity in the pipeline and unemployment at astronomic highs, the risks are clearly tilted toward a more protracted recession."<p>
Separate data today from the ECB showed that private-sector deposits at Spanish banks fell by a record in July, dropping 74.2 billion euros ($93 billion), or 4.7 percent, to 1.51 trillion euros. That's the biggest decline since at least 1997, when the ECB's data series started. </blockquote><p>
As Migeru pointed out in an f/b conversation, this is running counter to Die Welt's other coverage ("<a href="http://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article109092507/Spanien-am-Rande-der-Zahlungsunfaehigkeit.html">Spain on the brink of bankruptcy</a>" on Sept 7, just five days after the posted article).<p>
Could it be some sort of sarcasm that is being missed in translation? Is it part of a propaganda effort to create a more positive atmosphere toward the south in German public opinion? What? I don't know but is sure reads funny in a dark and obscene way...
<a href="http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2012/9/9/191930/2309">Cross-posted in the European Tribune</a>
taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-83012578804256255012012-06-15T03:33:00.003+03:002017-03-22T19:11:21.308+02:00Merkel and Schauble: The thin line between economic policy and crimes against humanity<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/326590#ixzz1xoaK0DL5">I have really huge sympathy for the man on the street in Greece. But I cannot spare him</a> </blockquote>
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<i>Wolfgang Schaeuble </i></blockquote>
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<a href="https://twitter.com/philosofos/status/213380863910608897/photo/1" target="_blank">source </a></div>
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From the Digital Journal article linked to above:<br />
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Speaking to the <a href="http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2012/06/12/merkel-admits-greek-austerity-imposed-to-set-an-example-to-entire-euro-zone/">German press </a>Merkel
said "the austerity imposed on Athens..." is "necessary to set an
example to the entire eurozone.... The question of
whether Greece carries out its programme is not just a question of
whether the programme succeeds or not, but rather of whether obligations
will be observed in Europe in future."
<br />
The sentiment was reiterated by Schäuble. The <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9328172/Debt-crisis-live.html">Telegraph</a>
reported he said although he has sympathy for the people of Greece that
does not mean they don't have to put up with austerity. He said
"Things are rarely fair in a crisis ... the little man suffers and the
rich feather their own nests. I have really huge sympathy for the man on
the street in Greece. But I cannot spare him. It is not easy to cut the
minimum wage in Greece, when you think of the many people who own a
yacht... If the country wants to become competitive again, it has to sink.”
</blockquote>
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So <a href="http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/260822/pinoyabroad/worldfeatures/number-of-suicides-rise-in-greece-as-europe-s-financial-crisis-worsens" target="_blank">this</a> is not by accident, nor is <a href="http://histologion.blogspot.gr/2011/12/austerity-greek-road-to-hell.html" target="_blank">this</a>. It's all premeditated.</div>
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As far as I can see this can be easily <a href="http://untreaty.un.org/cod/icc/statute/99_corr/cstatute.htm" target="_blank">filed under</a> "inhumane acts... intentionally causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or to mental or physical health", as policy... This is no Europe worth participating in, it is the mad austerians' penal colony... </div>
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So on Sunday it's SYRIZA or barbarism. I would stand on a bread-line and walk 10 miles to work every day if it means telling these vile, cynical bastards and the local plutocracy that they are working with to fuck off and die.</div>
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taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-18832350055740315942012-06-05T16:57:00.001+03:002016-01-16T01:21:48.410+02:00Levy your myths on Greece<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20120616071907/http://www.faz.net/polopoly_fs/1.1542261!/image/3796194238.jpg_gen/derivatives/article_aufmacher_gross/3796194238.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="353" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20120616071907/http://www.faz.net/polopoly_fs/1.1542261!/image/3796194238.jpg_gen/derivatives/article_aufmacher_gross/3796194238.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<blockquote style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">
“Greece must be clear that it agreed to this rehabilitation program, there is no alternative, if it wants to remain a member of the Euro-zone,” <i>- ECB executive board member </i><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/05/09/991791/a-tipping-point-in-eurozone-crisis-talk/"><span class="st"><i>Jörg Asmussen</i></span></a></blockquote>
<a href="http://www.thefreedictionary.com/rehabilitation">Rehabilitation</a> implies a return to health, or to normalcy, of course, and two years after the therapy started, the patient is sicker than ever, <a href="http://www.nl-aid.org/domain/economic/how-to-underdevelop-a-nation-imf-eu-prescription-for-greece/">undeveloping</a> and suffering <a href="http://histologion.blogspot.com/2011/12/austerity-greek-road-to-hell.html">societal collapse.</a><br />
<br />
That these fiscal doctors are quacks therefore is indisputable. That they have no ability to learn from their mistakes or, perhaps, that indeed this political butchery is not incidental but purposeful, is evidenced by their persistence on the social and economic disaster being visited by the Frankfurt (or is it Brussels?) Consensus (worthy heir to the devastating <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Consensus">Washington Consensus</a>) not only on Greece but on country after peripheral country in the EU, a policy cancer that is metastasizing to the EU core - again, perhaps as intended...<br />
<br />
I'm leaving aside the horrifying casualness with which all sorts of European officials consider or even advocate the removal of a member country from the euro. This is simply indefensible, and even "respectable" authorities call it for what it is: <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/euro-zone-finance-ministers-dismiss-215040419.html">propaganda</a> meant to influence the Greek electorate, terrorize them into passivity and acceptance of their fate avoiding the feared radicals... These are the sort of statements that have immediate market consequences and this is something that is possibly even illegal but certainly breathtakingly irresponsible, especially since a Greek Euro-exit has the potential <a href="http://business.time.com/2012/05/22/euro-crisis-why-a-greek-exit-could-be-much-worse-than-expected/">to become a cataclysmic </a><a href="http://business.time.com/2012/05/22/euro-crisis-why-a-greek-exit-could-be-much-worse-than-expected/">world-</a><a href="http://business.time.com/2012/05/22/euro-crisis-why-a-greek-exit-could-be-much-worse-than-expected/">event</a>.<br />
<br />
Let's focus instead on the dominant distorted narrative about Greece and the way it is influencing not just consumers of propaganda, but even the people setting the agenda. How indeed policy makers and mainstream analysts have internalized as objective facts, all sorts of flawed arguments about the Greek crisis. This is not a fluke, it is a <i>practice</i>: cherry-picking or even inventing facts (as we have seen many times in the case of the EU crisis), setting up policies with no evidentiary base and with a historical record of failure, married with the sort of de-politicization of economy that is a hallmark of neoliberalism, an apolitical economy in which systemic analysis is eschewed in favor of conceptually flawed yet elegant models, and whose accompanying rhetoric are moralistic bromides. And of course ignoring the complete failure of all "official" economic predictions. Until recently I believed that the dominant misrepresentations about Greece from the EU were no more than cunning and amoral political posturing. More and more I am coming to the conclusion lately that this complete lack of understanding of the Greek economy, what went wrong and who is to blame for its implosion, is not a bug but a <i>feature</i> of the austerian world view, a prerequisite for viewing the imposed policies not only as desirable but as inevitable. There truly Is No Alternative, if you filter your inputs appropriately...<br />
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<h3 style="text-align: left;">
<b>Dr. Jörg Asmussen: Clueless in Frankfurt</b></h3>
Take <a href="http://www.ecb.int/ecb/orga/decisions/html/cvasmussen.en.html">Jörg Asmussen</a>, an ECB Executive Board member now, and until recently "State Secretary at the German Federal Ministry of Finance, responsible for the Directorates Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Affairs, Financial Market Policy and European Policy". Surely a man who is intimate with basic facts about the Greek economy, right? Well... not exactly.<br />
<br />
In <a href="http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/09/europe-201109?currentPage=all">an interview last September in Vanity Fair, Asmussen</a> states the following after reading an IMF report on Greece (emphasis mine):<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">
“They have not sufficiently implemented the measures they have
promised to implement,” he says simply. “And they have a massive problem
still with revenue collection. Not with the tax law itself. It’s the
collection which needs to be overhauled.”<br />
Greeks are still
refusing to pay their taxes, in other words. But it is only one of many
Greek sins. “They are also having a problem with the structural reform.
Their labor market is changing—but not as fast as it needs to,” he
continues. “<b>Due to the developments in the last 10 years, a similar job
in Germany pays 55,000 euros. In Greece it is 70,000</b>.” <b>To get around pay
restraints in the calendar year the Greek government simply paid
employees a 13th and even 14th monthly salary—months that didn’t exist</b>.
“There needs to be a change of the relationship between people and the
government,” he continues. “It is not a task that can be done in three
months. You need time.” </blockquote>
Asmussen thus makes two assertions that supposedly support what he has to say: One: that a job in Germany pays <i>less</i> than a similar job in Greece, and that the "13th and 14th" salary is a scheme that the Greek government invented in order to pay employees <i>more</i>. The first assertion is mindbogglingly wrong and the second assertion is <i>not even wrong. </i>As this is illustrative of the the extent of the empirical void upon which the austerity prescriptions are built let's see some data:<br />
<br />
Average gross earnings in Greece are <a href="http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php?title=File:Earnings_in_the_business_economy_%28average_gross_annual_earnings_of_full-time_employees%29,_2000-2010_%281%29_%28EUR%29.png&filetimestamp=20120104091726">a fraction of earnings in Germany</a>, there were very few people, if any, in Greece that made more on any given job than their German counterparts. It is not clear if Mr Asmussen is talking about private sector jobs (which talk about "labor markets" in Greece indicates) or public sector jobs (which would be consistent with government paying salaries as stated in the next sentence). Yet in neither case is it true that Greek jobs were better paid (not even in purchasing power, as <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2010/jun/30/city-costs-living">Athens is more expensive than all major German cities</a>). Greek median salaries in fact were consistently either the lowest in the EU15 or second lowest (after Portugal), and that applied especially to low and mid-range jobs (<a href="http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=el&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sysp.gr%2Fperiskopio%2F008.htm">see here</a> - warning Google translation!). The large gap between salaries for jobs at the top and average salaries was mentioned in a <a href="http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/eiro/2008/10/articles/gr0810029i.htm">Greek Unions' report for 2007</a>: <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">
In Greece the mean wage is approximately €1,250. In other words, 50% of
paid employees receive gross monthly pay of less than €1,250. Average
gross
monthly pay stands at €1,668, much higher than the mean wage,
since 15% of paid employees have extremely high wages, which raise the
average, creating
false impressions regarding the great majority of paid
employees. The threshold below which workers are designated as low-paid
is 2/3 of the mean wage,
i.e. around €830 a month. Based on this figure, 22% of workers
in Greece are low-paid. The purchasing power of the mean gross wage in
Greece in 2007
was 83% of the average in the EU15. Only in Portugal was the
purchasing power of wages lower (61%).</blockquote>
Since then, salaries and wages have been declining rapidly: by <a href="http://www.athensnews.gr/issue/13493/55214">more than a quarter in 2011</a> according to the OECD, and heading towards <a href="http://www.eurotribune.eu/index.default.php/?p=27813&l=0&idioma=2">a further 25% reduction in 2012</a>.<br />
If one was to examine compensation in public sector jobs, teachers were indicative: both entry and end-career <a href="http://download.ei-ie.org/Docs/WebDepot/Teachers%20Pay%202008%20Report.pdf">gross salaries for teachers in Greece were around~60% of those in Germany. </a><br />
<br />
Recently <a href="http://www.teachersolidarity.com/blog/some-greek-teachers-asked-to-pay-for-work/">some Greek teachers had to actually *pay*</a> in order to keep their jobs, while the decline is significant and net salaries start at about 600 Euros per month, not reaching much beyond 1400 euros... Thus the average Greek teacher now makes a third to a quarter of what a German teacher makes, in a country that is more expensive than Germany...<br />
<br />
Asmussen's second point is even more breathtakingly uninformed however: the so-called "13th and 14th" salaries are in fact: a. given in both the private and the public sector, b. not bonuses but a way to distribute <b>annual</b> salaries (which is what counts - duh!) in a way convenient for most Greeks and c. in place practically immediately after WWII, legally generalized in 1981 but based on <a href="http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=el&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.enet.gr%2F%3Fi%3Dnews.el.article%26id%3D134107">a practice dating back to... 1822</a> [Google translation]. <br />
This is common knowledge in Greece, but apparently a man who gets to decide on the survival of the Greek economy and <a href="http://www.ctv.ca/generic/generated/static/business/article2426606.html">issues warnings and threats</a>, while chiding the locals for imagined shortcomings, does not need to actually have any idea about the economy he is helping destroy...</div>
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Finally one cannot help but note that the troika under ECB supervision and the German government's acquiescence has cut down in numbers of, and reduced salaries in, exactly the government mechanism that is supposed to collect taxes. Unsurprisingly this has not made the tax collection mechanism more efficient or less corrupt...</div>
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<br />
So let us recap: important German Finance Secretary in charge of European policy gives interview in which he shows clear signs of getting his data about Greece from Bild and similar paragons of journalistic integrity. This <a href="http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2011/5/18/82030/8645">would not have been the first time a German public official adopts anti-southern populism</a> as a guiding light for policy recommendations, but since this was an interview in a US magazine, in a clearly relaxed conversation one is lead to believe that Mr. Asmussen's misrepresentations about the Greek economy were not a guise, or a political stratagem but a real gaping hole in his understanding of the situation...<br />
<br />
So could be worse for Greece than a clueless German Central Banker? A clueless IMF director perhaps... <br />
<br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
Lagarde: Most children in Greece are not starving to death, Greeks will have to try harder - till they do</h3>
Mme Lagarde, IMF director was quoted in an interview a few days ago in the Guardian talking about many things - Greece and the crisis among them. She seems to have a problem with social categories and logical consistency though, and I'll quote here the whole relevant passage:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">
So when she studies the Greek balance sheet and demands measures she
knows may mean women won't have access to a midwife when they give
birth, and patients won't get life-saving drugs, and the elderly will
die alone for lack of care – does she block all of that out and just
look at the sums?<br />
"No, I think more of the little kids from a
school in a little village in Niger who get teaching two hours a day,
sharing one chair for three of them, and who are very keen to get an
education. I have them in my mind all the time. Because I think they
need even more help than the people in Athens." She breaks off for a
pointedly meaningful pause, before leaning forward.<br />
"Do you know
what? As far as Athens is concerned, I also think about all those people
who are trying to escape tax all the time. All these people in Greece
who are trying to escape tax."<br />
Even more than she thinks about all
those now struggling to survive without jobs or public services? "I
think of them equally. And I think they should also help themselves
collectively." How? "By all paying their tax. Yeah."<br />
It sounds as if she's essentially saying to the Greeks and others in Europe, you've had a nice time and now it's payback time.<br />
"That's right." She nods calmly. "Yeah."<br />
And
what about their children, who can't conceivably be held responsible?
"Well, hey, parents are responsible, right? So parents have to pay their
tax."</blockquote>
Most of what I wanted to say about this interview, and more, has been said <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/staggers/2012/05/christine-lagardes-tough-love-insult-greece">by Alex Andreou in the New Statesman</a>, in an excellent piece where he debunks this nonsense, starting with the implausibility of an IMF head giving two damns about children in Niger, which the Fund has <a href="http://www.leninology.com/2005/08/niger-starved-by-neoliberal-dogma.html">a history of helping to starve</a> in a country <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iw9OARpp-KI">devastated more by its policies than draught</a>. <br />
I would<i> </i>simply like to highlight the following from Andreou's article:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">
Faced with the question
of women without access to a midwife when they give birth, patients
dying without access to drugs, the elderly dying alone for lack of care
and children starving, Lagarde’s response is simply to say that it is
very easy for them to help themselves. How? "By all paying their tax.
Yeah."<br />
That’s right. Because, plainly, it is the same mothers without access
to midwives, the elderly without care, the sick who cannot afford the
newly introduced €5 hospital admission fee, the children without food,
who have hoards of taxable income and are busily trying to send it to
banks in Switzerland, while starving. Greece as one homogenous,
tax-dodging mass responsible for its own downfall.</blockquote>
Yet this is the quality of the arguments presented here: Lagarde starts from the correct premise that there is significant tax-evasion in Greece and then distributes blame to all Greeks despite knowing (?) full well that it is the richest members of society that have been tax-dodging and evading, while the tax burden on the average working Greek has sky-rocketed. Salaried employees and pensioners i.e. the large majority of Greek taxpayers <i>cannot </i>evade taxes since income tax (along with huge social security taxes) is deducted directly from their pay-checks. That <a href="http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/26074/">the bulk of tax evasion occurs in the highest income brackets</a> is known, as is the fact that Greek ship-owners are totally tax-exempt (including income of their employees in their offices in Greece), in <a href="http://www.deloitte.com/assets/Dcom-Global/Local%20Assets/Documents/ShippingTaxOverviewsBrochure_Feb06.pdf">one of the most tax-friendly regimes for shipping in the World</a> contributing almost zero to state revenues despite contributing near 10% of GDP. Yet these people, along with the bulk of the Greek rich, the real and only winners of the supposed Greek "boom" in the decade before the crash of 2009, are never really targeted by anyone - much less the troika. But Lagarde would naturally feel sympathy for her peers in tax-exemption and income level as <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/politics/2012/05/christine-lagarde-pays-no-tax-slight-hypocrite">she pays no taxes at all on her close to half a million dollar annual salary in the IMF</a>...<br />
Lagarde's comments about the parents of hungry Greek children being guilty of not paying taxes also fail simple logic: obviously all such parents do not have to pay income tax, since they are demonstrably under the 5000 Euro/year tax floor which the IMF is working hard to remove, having as a maxim that the only kind of taxes it likes are those on the poor and the middle class. They do however pay VAT which has increased to 23% in general, and 6,5% for basic necessities. The really big tax-evaders most definitely do not have starving children... instead they have<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/13/londonproperty-idUSL5E8GB8RI20120513"> property in London</a>, and <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/28/greek-exit-money-transfer-northern-banks_n_1549852.html">bank accounts in Switzerland and Germany</a>.<br />
But let's focus on taxes and see some of <a href="http://greeceishome.gr/forums/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=5654">"tax - reform" proposals the troika is trying to impose</a> - probably successfully if pro-austerity parties win in the coming elections. [My comments in italics next to the proposed measures]:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">
The basis for the envisioned changes in the new taxation system will
reportedly be the IMF and European Commission’s proposals - included in
their recently released reports... Among others, these should include:<br />
i)
elimination of several tax exemptions (related to e.g. medical visits
and hospital fees) and of special privileged status for certain taxpayer
categories; <i>[privileged = sick people]</i><br />
ii) abolition of the VAT discount on islands and an end
to reduced income tax rates for those who live in islands with fewer
than 3,100 inhabitants; <i>[privileged = people who leave in remote areas and need incentives for remaining there and aid to counter the costs of isolation]</i><br />
...<br />
iv)
reduction in income tax brackets from 8 currently to 5, including a
reduction in the upper tax rate for personal incomes to 40% from 45%
currently. A reduction to the tax-free threshold of €5,000 per year to
€3,000 or its complete elimination may also come under consideration; <i>[That means "lower taxes for the rich, higher taxes for the poor, much higher taxes for the poorest]</i><br />
vi) adoption of a uniform tax for all business
and legal entities at 20% initially, with a option to reduce it further
(to as low as 15%) once domestic economic conditions stabilize; <i>[Thus mega-corporations and small shops in the same tax bracket. Again less taxes for the rich, more taxes on the poor]</i></blockquote>
Plus the property taxes imposed are set up in such a way that the home-owner is taxed at the same rate as the bank which owns 100.000 buildings and houses around Greece... The property taxes prescribed by the IMF for home-owners and small scale owners are confiscatory in their extent under the economic conditions prevailing in Greece right now. <br />
<br />
So much for everybody paying their fair share, eh? Somehow the monstrous regressivity of the troika's tax proposals is seldom mentioned in much of the international discussion about Greece. <br />
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<h3 style="text-align: left;">
International Press: A vibrant mythology</h3>
The <a href="http://roarmag.org/2012/06/the-media-witch-hunt-continues-stop-austerity-in-greece/">stereotypes and misinformation about Greece being pushed by MS media around the world are legend</a>. The mention of Greece's "<a href="https://www.google.com/webhp?hl=el&tab=ww#hl=el&safe=off&sclient=psy-ab&q=bloated+public+sector+Greece&oq=bloated+public+sector+Greece&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&gs_l=serp.12...0.0.0.4453.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0..0.0...0.0.Z6bh7sNvrA8&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.r_qf.,cf.osb&fp=56b011700e3261e8&biw=1360&bih=557">bloated public sector</a>" is part of the standard clichés about the Greek crisis, seen i.e. in <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/18/world/europe/greeces-bloated-bureaucracy-defies-efforts-to-cut-it.html?pagewanted=all">this article in the New York Times from this past autumn</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">
Some experts believe that Greece could reap significant savings by
reducing its bureaucracy, which employs one out of five workers in the
country and by some estimates could be trimmed by as much as a third
without materially affecting services. But though salaries have been
cut, the government has yet to lay off anyone.</blockquote>
Although I've been through this issue on this blog many times let me point out the mistakes in this single paragraph:<br />
Although Greece could indeed reap significant savings by reducing its bureaucracy, this bureaucracy is <b>not</b><br />
a fifth of the workforce, as this blog has tirelessly pointed out since the start of this crisis. The total number of public sector employees (and that includes Greece's really bloated military, police, doctors, teachers, etc) is under 15% already and heading South fast. <a href="http://apografi.yap.gov.gr/apografi/english.html">Here are the official, updated numbers on Greek public sector</a>, (total workforce = approximately 5 million) and <a href="http://www.philip-atticus.com/2011/09/public-sector-employment-in-greece.html">here are the real facts about public sector employment</a>. The bureaucracy is a much, much smaller subset. However even if it was true that one could trim down this, small, bureaucracy by a third without materially affecting services, this would be a process that would necessarily extend over the space of 5-10 years, and would require a surgeon's scalpel. Instead what the IMF is insisting upon is indiscriminate firings in all sorts of public services that have nothing to do with bureaucracy in as little time as possible and through a process that utilizes an axe. As a result, public services have deteriorated to the point of total collapse, creating functional problems where there weren't any before and undermining public health, education, tax collection, infrastructure etc. The government was loathe to lay people off (it reduced the numbers though, only a bit more gradually than the IMF would like) because already at that time unemployment was pushing towards 20%, a milestone already passed now, and they were scared of the social consequences...<br />
And this was in the NYT, not some yahoo red-state rag, failing to even google what they're writing about. <br />
<br />
Or take <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/22/us-greece-myths-idUSBRE84L09820120522">this recent report from Reuters</a> ("Greeks embrace some new myths about life with the euro") where real attitudes in Greece are misrepresented and contrasted to a supposed determination on behalf of the Eurozone to "kick Greece" out. It is implied that Greeks are delusional because they want both an end to austerity (which has failed in every goal it set and has driven Greece to a depression greater than the US depression of the 1930s) and to remain in the Eurozone. The authors seem to think that this is impossible and it may yet be, but there is no evidence presented for this. Nowhere is it even hinted that the whole austerity policy was a failure, or that the measures being demanded of Greece in return for the bailout lead Greece to the Third World (not to mention out of the eurozone) and are causing already a humanitarian crisis in the country. But see how the issue is framed:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">
<span id="articleText"></span><br />
Solemn warnings from abroad that Athens cannot
stay in the Euro while rejecting the terms attached to the billions
offered to pull Greece out of its financial hole are widely disbelieved in a land that considers itself the envy of foreigners.</blockquote>
Note that these billions are "offered to pull Greece out of its financial hole" according to the article despite the rather evident fact that these billions have actually dragged Greece deeper into a financial hole, caused a societal disaster and have sabotaged the economy to an extent that will require a decade of rapid recovery to mend. The Greeks have this funny notion that failed programs should be stopped not because this is rational, but because they generally entertain quaint notions such as that their country "is the envy of foreigners" (one would be hard pressed to find a single person nowadays in Greece that would support such an assertion).<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">
<span id="articleText"></span></div>
<div style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">
In what many foreign partners see as the great
Greek paradox, opinion polls show over 75 percent of Greeks want to
stay in the euro, but two thirds oppose an international bailout, a
lifeline which came with harsh salary, pension and job cuts.</div>
<div style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">
<span id="midArticle_9"></span>Frankfurt
and Brussels say it is impossible for Greece to have one without the
other: no bailout means no euro and a return to the drachma -
"drachmageddon", as some Greeks call it.</div>
</blockquote>
It isn't much of a paradox however when one realizes that there is no official way of Greece leaving the Eurozone, unless it unilaterally withdraws from the EU, and why would it choose to do that? The paradox is resoled however in opinion polls that ask whether Greeks would prefer to live with the Euro under the terms of the current austerity plan or leave: 47,8% of respondents say that they would then prefer to leave while 41,7% would choose to remain in the Eurozone even under the current plan of permanent austerity <a href="https://p.twimg.com/AuELCbwCQAAl2Ue.jpg:large">according to a recent MRB poll</a>, while the percentage of those that set a limit to the amount of punishment they would accept to stay in the eurozone was 54% (vs 34% and 7% who wanted an immediate return to the drachma)<a href="http://topontiki.gr/img/uploads/big/133718944869.jpg"> in another poll by Pulse</a>. This is an inconvenient fact that escapes mention in stories from Greece because it reverses the threat: most Greeks are ready to dump the Euro (if they are forced to, because very few wish to leave the EU) in order to avoid austerity - and how ready is everyone else to cope with that?<br />
The other thing often missed when Greece is discussed in the MSM is that the vast majority of funds for the bailout never went to fill the Greek state's coffers, in fact Greece serves as a mechanism for <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/30/business/global/athens-no-longer-sees-most-of-its-bailout-aid.html?_r=3&pagewanted=all">European taxpayer money to end up back at the ECB</a>. Indeed the whole of the bailout has had the effect of giving time to the ECB to transfer debts of private and public banks to its own back, that is again, on the backs of European taxpayers. This too is a nuance often missed by media commentators... <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span id="articleText"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">Many parties show no sign of heeding warnings
to make clear to a public confused about what is at stake that elections
next month are effectively a referendum - euro or drachma</span>.</blockquote>
Again this is stated as fact. Despite the tiny detail that no one is advocating leaving the Euro. And many parties of course do not accept this (false, as they see it) dilemma which the article states as a given. It is not impossible for Greece to be pushed out of the Eurozone. However one could claim that should Greece follow the route of compliance it is much more likely that it will find itself in no time with no euro and even more disastrous conditions, as the eurostorm is breaking all over the continent and predictions about the future of the euro are quite precarious at this point, quite independently from what Greece does.<br />
<br />
The narrative sustained by mainstream media, eurocrats and elites around the world, but especially Europe, of a "<a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/world-affairs/2012/05/exploding-myth-feckless-lazy-greeks">lazy</a>" and <a href="http://www.counterpunch.org/2011/10/24/the-myth-of-greek-profligacy/">profligate</a> country that "boomed" with "foreign money" and now is getting its just deserts, is false. As is the meme being spread that the IMF/ECB/EU Commission program has anything to do with "getting Greece's fiscal house in order" and helping Greece out of the slump. Actually the troika program is the prime factor behind the collapse of the Greek economy, a collapse almost unique in scale during peacetime. In terms of its stated goals and socioeconomic collateral damage <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jun/02/austerity-failed-will-hutton">it is an abject failure</a>. The dismantling of the meager welfare state that Greece had to begin with, as well as the demolition of the impotent and poorly implemented pre-crisis labor laws in favor of a framework that converges toward that of a third world dictatorship, coupled with a salary and wage cut, a high inflation rate, >20% unemployment and a mad tax-spree against working people, pensioners and small businesses, is a political project run by <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/may/30/eurozone-crisis-spain-debt">dangerous neoliberal ideologues</a>, not an answer to Greece's real deep economic malaise.<br />
<br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
The narrative is the message</h3>
All these misrepresentations, the silences, the omissions, the outright lies, the misinformation, the urban legends and the often naked condescension, form an integral part of the <i>narrative </i>of Greece, a narrative that is used to legitimize the policies being pursued by the core EU governments to the electorates there, not only by stereotyping but by indirectly implying that solidarity is pointless, and that they mustn't demand too much of the state and their superiors, or else the fate of the profligate Greeks will befall them.<br />
By <i>narrative</i> here I imply a rhetorical tool meant to frame the issues in Greece in such a way as to exclude certain kinds of questions and objections and invite only particular others. Though it is true that in one sense every depiction of events, especially of a procession of events, is a narrative of one form or another,what we have here is a narrative that does not even try to include the relevant facts, but rather to make them opaque, to misrepresent and deny coherently, and by plan. This is a <i>weaponized</i> narrative, in a permanent communication war taking place where societal consensus is forged.<br />
However the thing is that these sort of devices work better if you believe their content. As "the plan" here emerges through the alignment of elite interests, and the reflexes of the already indoctrinated who are in place at critical positions in the political-financial-industrial-media complex that supports and defines the global elites, what you get is Asmussens and Lagardes, and everything from Bild all the way to the WSJ and the NYT: people that at the same time realize the political expediency and the real economic stakes, yet seem to honestly entertain and believe the dumb BS they are peddling to the population at large, both at home and in the target country: Greece and the PIIGS in general...<br />
<br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
Myths prop-up corruption </h3>
It is in Greece where the project of the dismantling of the European welfare state, <a href="http://www.presseurop.eu/en/content/article/1555361-draghi-buries-european-social-model">a desire acknowledged by Mario Draghi</a>
himself openly, is being tested, after two years of daily struggles the
unfolding disaster is leading to an unprecedented electoral result . <br />
Up to a month ago the plan was moving along, supported by massive police violence whenever protesters were on the verge of dominating the streets. These protests however, as they were increasing in anger, determination and ferocity created a crisis of legitimacy, that not even the Greek oligarchs' corrupt media system could impede. In fact the media system's delegitimization was a key factor that allowed the electoral earthquake that followed. Elections were then announced with the widespread conviction that the two-party system propping the bailout and the subjugation to the IMF / ECB dictates, would be wounded yet would have managed to form some sort of legitimate government capable of moving ahead with even more anti-social cuts and productive sabotage...<br />
<br />
But things were explosibe and SYRIZA, a small party of the radical left emerged as the main beneficiary, electorally speaking, on May 6th, and is poised to win, perhaps even win big, on the repeat elections of June 17. This is met by a chorus of local and european dismay, trying to push the the idea of Greek elections being a referendum for or against the Euro, despite the fact that SYRIZA has been insisting forever that it wants to Greece to remain in the euro, and is arguably the only pro-european party in Greece, if by Europe one means social-europe, the Europe of redistribution and democracy. In fact SYRIZA is fighting a battle that concerns everyone who doesn't want <a href="http://www.lrb.co.uk/v34/n11/slavoj-zizek/save-us-from-the-saviours">a "Europe with Asian values" as Slavoj Zizek recently pointed out</a> or that sees austerity as the death knell of the Euro and a ticket for re-inventing the 1930s, <a href="http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2012/06/03/why-europe-should-fear-fina-gail-like-reasonableness-much-much-more-than-it-fears-syriza/">as Yanis Varoufakis</a> warns...<br />
<br />
So the same forces that imposed on Greece <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jun/04/austerity-policy-eurozone-crisis?fb=native&CMP=FBCNETTXT9038">a historically failed</a> policy - as part of a political plan, or through sheer dogmatism, it doesn't matter - are now encouraging Greeks to vote for the same two parties that have been historically at the root cause of the Greek economy's many ills. Clientilism and corruption, oligarchs and tax-evasion, public coffers at the service of the bureaucracy/ ship-owner / public procurer / media complex, the underdevelopment of the Greek welfare state, are all the work of the two parties, ND and PASOK that the EU bureaucrats and assorted European elites are basing their hopes on. SYRIZA on the other hand has no clientilist roots, was the only major party opposed to the Athens' Olympics and the Pactolus of funds (total cost is still unknown but estimates reach 30 billion euros) that were diverted there. SYRIZA was the only parliamentary party to note that the funding growth through borrowing, 2,5 euros of debt for every euro of growth as they noted at the middle of the "boom", is a Ponzi scheme, not an economic policy, and that not reducing public debt at a time of growth is suicidal.<br />
But the powers that be are creating a new myth, the myth of the dangerous radicals that are going to wreck Europe, and they are actively supporting the mishmash of carrierists, neoliberals and enablers of corruption that are the two parties - not to mention the scary drift to the far-right of ND that now includes a large part of the extreme-right LAOS, with fascist roots and an anti-immigrant rhetoric that would embarrass Marine Le Pen. The eurocrats and the mouthpieces of global elites are mythologizing the political landscape of Greece and they are still insisting that the disastrous measures that SYRIZA refuses to implement are the only alternative. The process by which Greece and its "radical" choice (and to be frank, SYRIZA's prescription for dealing with the crisis is a bit to the right of Paul Krugman) is to be made the scapegoat for the collapse of the euro project in the new series of myths in the post-euro landscape, is now underway...<br />
The reasons are obvious: they fear a left wing contagion in their own countries they fear an end of the era of rule of the 1%, by the 1%, and for the 1%...<br />
<br />
A dilemma will emerge in the coming period regardless of what happens in Greece: the dilemma of whether Europe will drift towards a post-democratic dystopia, or whether social Europe persists and emerges stronger from this chaos. The battle that SYRIZA is facing, unprepared and nervous as it may be, is the first in a political war that can engulf the continent. "They have decided without us, we will go on without them" as SYRIZA's slogan declared. Let's go on without them, then, on a European scale...<br />
<br />
[<a href="http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2012/6/6/1503/58774">Crossposted at the European Tribune</a>]<br />
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taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-79753770751872648002012-05-11T03:08:00.002+03:002012-05-11T03:08:19.090+03:00SYRIZA leader's second letter to Barroso et al.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<i> Background <a href="http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2012/5/6/62335/00249">1</a>, <a href="http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2012/5/6/73820/73188">2</a>, <a href="http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2012/5/7/21304/28106">3</a> (see discussions also)</i><br />
<i> </i><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.kourdistoportocali.com/UsersFiles/tsipraspapoulia.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="237" src="http://www.kourdistoportocali.com/UsersFiles/tsipraspapoulia.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<i>Letter of the president of the Parliamentary Team of SYRIZA – EKM to EU Commission President Jose Barroso, the President of the European Council H. Van Rompuy, and the President of the European Parliament Μartin Sultz; attn the President of the ECB Mario Draghi and Eurogroup President Jean Claude Juncker </i><br /><br /><br />Athens Thursday May 10, 2012 <br /><br />Dear Mr. President <br /><br />I am sending you this letter after returning the exploratory mandate with which the President of the Hellenic Republic entrusted me, so that I could determine the possibility of the creation of a government that would enjoy the parliament’s confidence, according to our Constitution. This letter is a continuation of <a href="http://histologion.blogspot.com/2012/02/warning-to-austerian-eurocrats.html">the previous one I had sent you on February 21</a>. <br /><br />The vote of the the Greek people on Sunday May 6th, delegitimizes politically the <a href="http://www.tovima.gr/files/1/2012/02/10/mnhmonioagglika.pdf">Memorandum of Understanding / Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policy</a> which was signed by the previous government under Mr. Papademos and the leaders of the two parties which had guaranteed the parliamentary majority of that government. Both these parties recorded a loss if about 3,5 million votes, receiving a combined 33,5% of total votes. <br /><br />We would ask you to note that, before this, the Memorandum of Understanding / MEFP had been already delegitimized as regards to its economic efficiency. <br /><br />But it isn’t just that the MoU/MEFP failed in achieving its own stated goals. It is also that it has failed to confront the structural imbalances of the Greek economy. SYRIZA has been pointing out all these past years the endogenous weaknesses of the economy. All governments, in close collaboration with the EU, ignored our proposals for concrete reforms. <br /><br />Please note also, that because of the policies of the MoU/MEFP, Greece is the only European country ever in peacetime to be suffering in 2012, its fifth consecutive year of deep recession. Furthermore, the bond exchange program (PSI) has failed to secure in a reliable way the long-term viability of the public debt, which is increasing as a percentage of Greek GDP. Austerity cannot in any way be a therapy during a recession. The immediate, socially just, reversal of the declining trend of our economy is therefore imperative. <br /><br />We must urgently secure economic and social stability in our country. For this reason, we have a duty to undertake every possible political initiative in order to reverse austerity and recession. Because, beyond the lack of democratic legitimization, a continued implementation of the program of internal devaluation leads the economy towards a catastrophe, without producing the prerequisites for recovery. Internal devaluation tends to lead to a humanitarian crisis. <br /><br />We therefore have a duty to re-examine the whole framework of existing strategy, given that it not only threatens social cohesion and stability in Greece, but also is a source of instability for the EU itself and for the Eurozone. <br /><br />The common future of European peoples is under the threat of these disastrous choices. It is our deep conviction that the problem of this crisis is European and that therefore it is at a European level that a solution must be found… <br /><br /> <br /><br />Respectfully <br /><br />Alexis Tsipras <br /><br />President of the SYRIZA Parliamentary Group <br /><br />Vice-chairman of the Party of the European Left <br /><br /> </div>taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-65515094100660198842012-03-17T03:22:00.001+02:002012-03-18T03:17:53.766+02:00The anality of evil<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Business/Pix/pictures/2010/11/18/1290087508739/IMF-officials-in-Dublin-006.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Business/Pix/pictures/2010/11/18/1290087508739/IMF-officials-in-Dublin-006.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Dark lords of the IMF over Dublin, one of their other lairs</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="tr_bq">
<br /></div>
<div class="tr_bq">
EU Commission <a href="http://www.balkans.com/open-news.php?uniquenumber=139226">President Barroso</a> said: </div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">
"Greece's future passes through restoring both
financial stability and growth potential. The support provided by the
Commission's Task Force is a key instrument to support growth and jobs
in Greece. The solidarity shown by many Member States, the Commission,
and other international institutions is a very encouraging signal for
this country. Let's build a future for Greece together". </blockquote>
<a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2115992/Is-Greece-world-country-HIV-Malaria-TB-rates-soar-health-services-slashed-savage-cuts.html#ixzz1pKOyOEcP">The Daily Mail</a> responded:<br />
<blockquote>
<span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">Is Greece becoming a third world country? HIV, Malaria and TB rates soar as health services are slashed by savage cuts:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">Prostitution and heroin addiction on rise as hospital budgets cut by 40%. Malaria levels reaching near endemic levels in some areas. 'The entire health system is deteriorating'</span></blockquote>
<br />
<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2012/mar/16/greece-on-the-breadline-newborn-screening">The Guardian chimed in</a>: <br />
<div id="main-article-info">
<blockquote style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">
Greece is on the breadline: newborn testing is under threat... a health worker warns that children will die from disorders that are easily detected and treated</blockquote>
"Whatever are you talking about, <a href="http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1145187--greece-needs-to-announce-more-austerity-report-says">these sub-humans deserve <i>more</i> austerity" responded the Commission</a> and the Greek government eagerly assented: </div>
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">
...in preparation for the new cuts the government was reviewing public spending programmes, focusing on savings in social transfers, defense and the restructuring of central and local administration.<br />
There would be job cuts in the public sector according to a redundancy and recruitment rule of 1 entry for 5
exits. Athens is to further cut pharmaceutical spending and operational spending of hospitals as well as welfare cash benefits.<br />
“The continuation of the very
comprehensive international financial assistance can only be expected if policy implementation improves,” the Commission report said...</blockquote>
"Defending the equitable state, the welfare state, is the top priority, a sine qua non condition for our survival as a civilized people" <a href="http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite3_1_02/03/2012_430902">countered Nikos Xydakis</a>.<br />
<br />
"The European social model has already gone" <a href="http://www.presseurop.eu/en/content/article/1555361-draghi-buries-european-social-model">said Mario Draghi</a> dismissively."Yes" agreed the local bankers <a href="http://newscenter.berkeley.edu/2012/02/27/greed/">happily</a>, busy chewing <a href="http://greece.greekreporter.com/2012/03/16/ailing-greek-banks-will-get-a-bailout-too-62-8-billion/">the pound of flesh</a> they stole from the hospitals and the schools.<br />
<br />
"<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2012/0314/Germany-to-Europe-Don-t-criticize-us-on-eurocrisis-leadership/%28page%29/2">While our policies may be unpopular, profligate states are finally starting to reform</a>" added Angela, the demented ordoliberal, pointing at the <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2012/mar/14/greece-breadline-leftovers-dinner">breadlines</a> and the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/video/2012/01/18/greece-homeless-crisis-escalates?videoId=228749583">homeless</a> in Greece with some satisfaction... We have <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,778351,00.html">these sort of people here at home</a> too, we do keep them<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/08/us-germany-jobs-idUSTRE8170P120120208"> to their station</a>... </div>
<a href="http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2012/3/17/21176/6541">Cross posted at the European Tribune</a>taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-12301805343756468042012-02-22T02:47:00.001+02:002012-02-22T02:49:10.139+02:00A warning to austerian eurocrats<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://sup.kathimerini.gr/kath/engs/img/NEWS/2011/11/tsipras_flag_390_0711.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="http://sup.kathimerini.gr/kath/engs/img/NEWS/2011/11/tsipras_flag_390_0711.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="tr_bq">
SYRIZA, the Greek Coalition of the Radical Left, has notified through an open letter signed by its president Alexis Tsipras and addressed to heads of Eurogroup member-states, the head of the European Commission Jose Barroso, the President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy, and Martin Schulz head of the European Parliament, that it does not consider the signature of the politically illegitimate government of Greece binding for future Greek governments. Although SYRIZA is at 10-12% at the polls currently, there is a dynamic testified not only internally but by a recent character-assassination piece in Bild and a less rabid but if anything more vitriolic and selective in its narrative piece in <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,816598,00.html">Der Spiegel</a>. SYRIZA is now the first Greek party to publicly commit itself to repudiating the terms of the latest loan agreement, as stated in the letter, translated below. Should SYRIZA continue rising in the polls expect the regime to postpone elections:</div>
<blockquote>
Hon. Sirs / Mms<br />
I am sending this letter to alert you to a matter of
democratic order of urgent importance for Greece. This has to do
with the commitments undertaken over the past two days by the Papademos
government, headed by Mr. Loukas Papademos. Allow me to remind you that
this is an unelected government, which does not enjoy popular support
and has consistently and consciously acted against the will of the
people of Greece. This government does not have the democratic
legitimacy to bind this country and its people for the coming years,
the coming generations. This legitimization deficit is in conflict with
the rich democratic tradition of your own country. If this continues
therefore, it will become a bad precedent for Greece and Europe as a
whole, which above all, have a common inheritance of political and
democratic traditions, which must be respected. However great the
seriousness of the current circumstances might be - over which there is
room for a divergence of opinion - they should not in any way cancel
democracy.<br />
The lack of democratic legitimacy of the Papademos government arises from the following facts:<br />
<ol style="text-align: left;">
<li>The two political parties, which support the government and participate
in it do not have a popular mandate to bind Greece to treaties and
agreements of this nature. Their representatives were elected in the
last national elections on October 2009, based on political programmes
at complete odds with the policies that were followed by the previous
Papandreou government as well as those being negotiated today with the
EU, the troika and the IIF, by the current government. The two parties
which constitute the current government have a recorded history of
plundering public resources and are responsible for the current economic
situation</li>
<li>The people of Greece have been systematically misinformed and
deceived about the intensity and the duration of the austerity measures,
ever since their first implementation in 2010. Consequently they have
withdrawn their confidence in the Greek political establishment.
Furthermore, the widely admitted - inside our country and abroad -
obvious failure of these measures to successfully face the fiscal
problems they were supposed to solve these past two years and the
five-year period of continuously deepening recession, has further
legitimated the demand for a change in policy, so as to restore a
socially just growth and therefore the prospect of a fiscal
rationalization.</li>
<li>More specifically: the unelected Papademos government provides
but a minimum of information, sometimes even deceitful, regarding the
agreements it is secretly negotiating. It has not initiated nor has it
allowed to initiate any public, informational discussion about the
extremely serious long term commitments that follow. Greek Democracy has
thus been deprived of the constitutionally protected right of a
detailed evaluation of the consequences of the signed agreement. The
so-called "second rescue" was voted through an emergency ultra
fast-track procedure, in the time-frame of one parliamentary session on a
Sunday. The main object of this session was the demand by the
government of a <i>carte-blanche</i> authorization on almost blank documents, which are supposed to bind the country for years to come</li>
<li>To the degree that there has been no information on these
agreements, their content seems to be such as to commit the Greek people
for generations to come. For such commitments any government should at
least demand a clear and renewed mandate.</li>
<li>To the degree that there has been no information on the
government's movements, the will of the Greek people as expressed in a
multitude and a variety of ways, is almost unanimous in opposition to them.
Specifically, during the last two years the people of Greece,
throughout the country are expressing their opposition to government
policies through, among other means, repeated general strikes and
demonstrations, occupations, letter writing, electronic messages and
other forms of personal communication with members of Parliament. The
Greek government, not only chose to ignore the voice of its people, but
tried indeed to stifle it, at times even violently, so as to continue in
a antidemocratic way, the policies that have been proven disastrous for
the Greek economy and society.</li>
</ol>
For all of the above reasons, I am notifying you that the Greek
people, as soon as they restore their right to democratically express
their will and regain control of their democratic institutions, will in
all likelihood reserve recognition or compliance with these agreements
that the current government is planning to assent to. Specifically the
Greek people will not accept any loss of sovereignty, foreign
involvement in internal matters of Greece or large-scale sale of public
companies, land and other assets that the current government is
preparing to accept...</blockquote>
<br />
<blockquote>
<i>Alexis Tsipras<br />President of the SYRIZA parliamentary team</i></blockquote>
</div>taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-46349327361386628152012-02-20T03:12:00.003+02:002012-02-20T03:12:52.868+02:00Declaration for the Defense of Society and Democracy<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jAHp_6MNlG0/T0Gd28Go9kI/AAAAAAAAAi0/0CGPfwzaDlg/s1600/athens_protest.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="230" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jAHp_6MNlG0/T0Gd28Go9kI/AAAAAAAAAi0/0CGPfwzaDlg/s400/athens_protest.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I reproduce here the text of the Declaration for the Defense of Society and Democracy, organized by a group of progressive Greek intellectuals as an instrument to raise awareness about the predicament Greece is in, but also the dangers that this implies for Europe as a whole... In order to sign this document send an e-mail with your name and organization (optional) to <a href="mailto:koindim@gmail.com">koindim@gmail.com</a> (<a href="http://koindim.wordpress.com/%CF%85%CF%80%CE%BF%CE%B3%CF%81%CE%B1%CF%86%CE%AD%CF%82/">signatories thus far</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<i>The following declaration (<a href="http://koindim.wordpress.com/%CE%B1%CE%B3%CE%B3%CE%BB%CE%B9%CE%BA%CF%8C-%CE%BA%CE%B5%CE%AF%CE%BC%CE%B5%CE%BD%CE%BF/">original here</a>) is the product of an initiative undertaken by a group of citizens from different backgrounds who have agreed on the necessity of sounding a coherent and massive critical voice inside Greece as well as internationally. We have agreed that an intervention is necessary, which will forcefully highlight to Greek and European public opinion three major issues, in a conjuncture when the dominant dilemma "austerity or bankruptcy" has given it's place to the absolutely negative sum of "both austerity and bankruptcy":</i></div>
<div>
<i>1. The collapse of the social welfare state and the intensification of social inequalities</i></div>
<div>
<i>2. The subversion of democratic institutions and civil rights</i></div>
<div>
<i>3. The dissolution of the European vision and the decay of European unity</i></div>
<div>
<i>This initiative does not aim to produce yet another petition and a collection of signatories, despite its having originated on that basis. It aims to produce wider concurrences and spread the message everywhere that the "Greek problem" is simply a warning about the danger that fundamental European social and political values are in. Therefore it concerns us all.</i></div>
<div>
<i>It is our goal that everyone who signs this petition involve themselves, if they so wish, into social action, in a potential collaboration with organizations and collective entities who know firsthand, better than all of us, what is really happening in Greece today, and who are interested in working for a social and democratic Europe. In this crisis no one is alone. The answer to exclusion is participation. The answer to defeatism and pessimism is action...</i></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<br />
Greek society is suffering both from the crisis and the responses to it, which have reached a dead-end. Major social and political institutions that were created with enormous struggles and sacrifices in post-War Greece – social security, the public health care system, public education, public transport, the natural and urban environment, the right to live a safe existence, and various elemental goods and services that underwrite the very existence of an already curtailed and devalued Greek state – are all being utterly dismantled so that Greek society is now dying of asphyxiation.<br /><br />These dead-end responses rest on the blackmailing dilemma: austerity or bankruptcy? Yet, this is hardly a dilemma – it is rather a negative aggregate: both austerity and bankruptcy. The tri-monthly threat to expel Greece from the Eurozone constitutes an ethical alienation and an economic catastrophe, precisely because it strengthens the profound recession, turning the whole of Europe into an agent of uncertainty, financial instability, and proliferation of the crisis. It is Europe itself that is producing the conditions that make it impossible for Greece to fulfill its debt obligations.<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
It is becoming clearer every day that the specific political response to the crisis, which culminated in the parliamentary approval of the Second Memorandum, is not a viable process of overcoming the crisis or alleviating the long term pathologies of the Greek political and economic system, but a catastrophic process that deepens already existing terms of social injustice. The crisis is not experienced by those who exploited the state and public interest for decades, but by the most vulnerable social constituencies. We are confronted with an unprecedented initiative of an upwards redistribution of wealth and power that subverts the European social model by exacerbating the most extreme economic and social inequities, while simultaneously empowering the return of nationalism and the intensification of racism and xenophobia. <br /><br />The falsified use of the notion of “reform” is indicative of the incapacity to overcome the crisis. Even those who did hope that the crisis would signal the opportunity to clean up or radically renovate existing institutions understand now that such imposed “reforms” destroy what is left of the social fabric. The dominant discourse regarding Greece, both within the country and abroad, is moralistic, guilt-ridden, and punitive. Every sort of disagreement or critique is dismissed as “populism”, “unionism”, or “anti-Europeanism”. After witnessing the stigmatization of the democratizing process following the fall of the Junta in 1974, we now witness the legitimation of the Far Right, which has been invited to participate in the current government. At the same time, we are bombarded with the demand that government be left in the hands of “Sages”, to coalitions of “technocrats” who will “save” the country. These are powerful autocratic and anti-democratic tendencies that employ an extreme populist rhetoric, to exploit the understandable sentiment of people’s fear-ridden disgust with the now rapidly collapsing old political order. We reject this old order as well, but without, however, subscribing to the shallow “ethnically proud” discourse that uncritically opposes the debt agreements without considering or proposing an alternative plan that can be realistically implemented. <br /><br />Both Greece and Europe are sinking into a co-dependent crisis that demonstrates, not only the institutional weaknesses of the EU but the unacceptable crisis management by conservative national leaderships with neoliberal statutes and projections. No matter how difficult it seems, we owe it to ourselves to work together for a democratic European society that will continue to project its historical and political values, and provide new content to globalization. In any case, no solution can ever be reached at a national level; it must come to terms with the broader circumstances that affect the entire continent and even beyond. Today, Greeks are being humiliated, tomorrow other peoples, in a process of spreading suspicion and hatred among all. We are facing a catastrophic moment in European history. In this respect, solidarity with the Greek people underlines a major political wager for all of progressive Europe. <br /><br />Against an uncritical class-based discourse, we owe it to ourselves to respond with critical thought drawn from the daily experience of citizens’ needs, especially those who are targeted unjustly by the crisis. We, the undersigned, are declaring our commitment to engage in the formation of a powerful front for the defense of society and democracy. We are forming a broad coalition that will bring together people from a multitude of political domains with the objective to restore the real meaning of words against an abusive language of self-interest, to help produce more creative modes of communication among social spaces and citizens with different affiliations, who share the elemental values of justice, solidarity, and democracy, in other words, the constitutive identities of citizens in a free-thinking and democratic polity. <br /><br />Rejecting the logic of the “one-way street”, the ahistorical stereotypes that vilify Greek society thus shredding our collective dignity, we take up the task of elucidating, the real consequences of this crisis, both within Greece and abroad. The Greek crisis is part of a broader crisis that is changing the foundations of our current historical times. In this transitional period it becomes essential to understand that the very meaning of society, and certainly the meaning of democracy and of citizenry, are under threat of being dismantled and must be defended at all cost. <br /><br />e-mail to <a href="mailto:koindim@gmail.com">koindim@gmail.com</a></div>
</div>taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-89583516432057347172012-02-16T21:50:00.000+02:002012-02-17T04:14:09.628+02:00Debts, promises and coups<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
Schäuble tyrannus</h2>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.nooz.gr/Uploads/Greece/Venizelos_Schauble_drerd.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="http://www.nooz.gr/Uploads/Greece/Venizelos_Schauble_drerd.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Master and servant</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<blockquote style="font-family: 'Courier New',Courier,monospace; text-align: left;">
<i>“In Greece the realisation that something has to change, and dramatically, still has to take place among many,” <a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2012/0213/1224311682846.html">said Schäuble yesterday</a>.</i></blockquote>
<div style="text-align: left;">
This gem of wisdom, comes from someone who supposedly is in charge of the Greek experiment, the chief of the German economy. I'm not sure how he forms an opinion on what is occurring in Greece, the effects his austerity programmes have on society and the population as a whole, nor do I understand what sort of people advise him on the mindset of the Greek population as a whole. But this didactic tone, coming from someone who obviously, from the effects of the policy he supervises, has not the faintest clue of either the society, or the economy he is helping to demolish and on which he is imposing a developing humanitarian disaster, is colonial in its contempt for the natives. </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The Irish Times article linked to in the quotation above, describes Schäuble as one of the negotiators of Germany’s unification treaty, a process which he apparently considers a success and a model for Greece. I leave aside the astonishing idea that the Greek economy is anything like the East German economy was and how terrifying it is that the man running Greece, for all practical purposes, considers it to be a similar project in any meaningful way. I have no first-hand opinion on the matter of course, but it does strike me as odd that the net result is a region which seems to overwhelmingly <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,634122-2,00.html">prefer life under one of the most repressive, intrusive and harsh dictatorships in the Eastern Block</a>, to what Schäuble achieved. So that is what the man calls success: creating mass yearning for dictatorship. I have no doubt that the corrupt and inefficient Third Greek Democracy, ending now, will be remembered with similar nostalgia should current plans persist. </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The German leaders' uninformed, yet unabashed shows of contempt, <a href="http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2011/5/18/82030/8645">bordering on the racist against Greece and the southerners</a> are, most likely, political theater aimed to please the unthinking Bild readership,vile in its arrogance, but with a broader political aim of enforcing austerity and destroying social Europe as we know it well beyond the Greek borders. Yet one wonders: can they be as cynical as all that? Might the need to make a moralizing argument make them blind and selective as to the sort of "news" and ideas they have about what is happening in the south? I'm not sure... Could it be that it's not just that this is a policy aimed primarily at consolidating the Bild readership, but also a policy <i>informed</i> by Bild? <br />
<br />
<h2>
Meaningless promises burn meaningfully</h2>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
I have chronicled as best as I could the trials and tribulations of Greek society and its economy, both at Histologion and <a href="http://www.eurotrib.com/user/talos/diary">the European Tribune</a> over the past two disastrous years, and noted the disconnect of the persons in charge of "fixing" the Greek economy with its reality. This whole disaster is turning into a disgusting farce, a farce with real human casualties, but a farce nonetheless. "Greece" is being blamed for failing to meet the programme goals and "lying" to the EU officials. The programme itself cannot be at fault (although <a href="http://histologion.blogspot.com/2012/01/imf-gaping-abyss-of-reform.html">it is failing everywhere</a>) so it must be it's lax implementation. This is something that apparently is sold as a fact to northern Europeans, along with the idea that this new package is mainly about "reform" and not about abolishing collective bargaining in Greece, forcefully decreasing <i>private</i> sector salaries to well under official poverty levels and reducing labor law to Burmese levels of worker protection - along with the fire sale of important infrastructure such as the Athens and Thessaloniki water companies and valuable assets such as the state lottery and football pools.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The list of "complaints" about Greece's "<a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/02/08/greece-promises-idUKL5E8D86MJ20120208">broken promises</a>" is impressively ridiculous: </div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">Taxes go uncollected, deficit targets are routinely missed, job cuts
from the state payroll are postponed, privatisations have barely begun
and pharmacies still shut in the middle of the day. Nearly two
years into Greece's bailout, so many promises have been broken that
international lenders have largely lost faith in the country's will to
reform itself and are torn between imposing stricter outside control and
cutting Athens loose.</span></blockquote>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Let's see how valid the complaints mentioned are:</div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><i>Taxes go uncollected</i>: This is a ridiculous statement. Taxes - flat taxes, and consumption taxes almost all of them- weighed heavily on the poorer and middle class segments of society, have been <i>vastly increased </i>at a time of total economic implosion. You can't collect taxes now, because the capacity of citizens and most businesses is either diminished or non-existent. As household incomes have fallen by ~50% over the past few months, paying last year's taxes for most households becomes an unbearable weight, and for most small businesses an impossibility. The new tax on property including residences, which was supposed to be paid through the electricity bill (or have your electricity cut-off, I kid you not) - has been met with widespread resentment and refusal of payment from an apparently huge percentage of the population, most of which cannot afford to pay the tax, either because they don't have the money (<a href="http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2012/01/11/survey-six-out-of-ten-greek-households-unable-to-pay-utility-bills/">six out of ten households can't afford to even pay the utility bills</a>, much less the extra tax ), or they're not sure that they won't need the money for pressing and basic needs in a climate of total work insecurity, or because they refuse to be blackmailed by an extortionist state. As even <a href="http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100014697/for-greece-a-tear-for-brussels-a-blush/">the Telegraph rightly notes</a>:
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace; text-align: left;">
Greece’s tax revenue from VAT collapsed by 18.7pc in January from a year earlier.
<br />
Nobody can seriously blame tax evasion for this. It has happened because 60,000 small firms and family businesses have gone bankrupt
since the summer.<br />
The VAT rate for food and drink rose from 13pc to 23pc in September to comply with EU-IMF Troika demands. The revenue effect has been overwhelmed by the contraction of the economy.<br />
Overall tax receipts fell 7pc year-on-year.<br />
This is a damning indictment of the EU-imposed strategy. Greece is chasing its tail. The budget deficit is stuck near 8pc to 9pc of GDP because the economic base is shrinking so fast.
</blockquote>
</li>
</ul>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li> <i>Deficit targets are routinely missed</i>: They are. Of course. The targets are unrealistic to begin with, they are imposed based on political aims and not on some plan for the Greek economy, and then the austerity prescribed causes a much greater slump than originally calculated, which makes meeting the deficit target impossible without further cuts, which then cause a deeper recession which cause even greater divergences from the set goal, and so on in an infinite vicious circle... This forecasting error is not limited to Greece alone, but rather <a href="http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=17906">a feature of all IMF analyses</a>, which are tools of political coercion and not objective technocratic estimates:
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace; text-align: left;">
The fact is that the optimistic 2012 forecasts presented in September
2011 whenever realistic. It was quite clear that the fiscal austerity
being imposed upon the Eurozone was always going to result in sharp
contractions in real growth.<br />
The IMF has a history of providing overly optimistic growth forecasts
at a time when it is bullying national governments to impose fiscal
austerity. The opposite is also the case, their growth estimates that
typically conservative when governments are introducing fiscal stimulus
packages
</blockquote>
Thus deficit targets are routinely missed, because they are <i>set up that way</i>, in an imploding economy that has lost 15% of GDP in 18 months...</li>
</ul>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><i>Job cuts form the state payroll are postponed</i>: This is hogwash. There is a constitutional ban on firing public sector workers so this can't be done legally as easily as the troika pretends it can. A loophole has been invented in that they can be fired if the position they occupy is canceled. Since 2009, the number of public employees has declined <a href="http://www.skai.gr/news/politics/article/180750/a-tolkas-kata-200000-ehoun-meiothei-oi-dimosioi-upalliloi/">from ~700 thousand to ~500.000</a>. Is this bloated? Well no not even in 2008 it wasn't, <a href="http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/60/3/48214177.pdf">according to the OECD:</a>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">
Greece has one of the lowest rates of public employment among OECD countries, with general government employing just 7.9% of the total labour force in 2008. This is a slight increase from 2000, when the rate was 6.8%.
</blockquote>
The situation <a href="http://www.philip-atticus.com/2011/09/public-sector-employment-in-greece.html">remains significantly unchanged</a> as far as the irrelevance of the size of the public sector employment in Greece to its problems is concerned, even if one adds the broader public sector - quasi-privatized, most of it - which is immediately affected by the troika decisions even though it has no immediate budgetary impact. Now this already low number is to be reduced a further 25%, with promises of firing an extra 150 thousand public employees by 2015. This has literally dissolved the public sector, <a href="http://news.monstersandcritics.com/business/news/article_1691308.php/SIDEBAR-Greece-comes-out-top-in-EU-corruption-perceptions-poll">increased corruption</a>, demotivated the public sector workers and has caused all sort of problems, not least of which is <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2811%2961556-0/fulltext">the harm inflicted on the health system</a>, corrupt and inefficient to begin with, which now produces higher mortality rates and <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-09/greek-doctors-battle-hospital-superbug.html">superbugs</a>.</li>
</ul>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><i> privatisations have barely begun</i>: This is true. The reason is that <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20111220-702507.html">interest in privatized enterprises is close to zero</a>, and the goals set <a href="http://www.philip-atticus.com/2011/02/unrealistic-outlook-for-greeces-eur-50.html">were way too ambitious</a> and unrealistic even last year... Now that the Greek economy has tanked they bring diminishing returns. This is aside of any discussion of the social and long-term economic sense and effects of selling-off things such as the water companies. Demanding immediate privatizations now is a demand for allowing the plunder of public resources. That the privatisation plans were not realistic, <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304231204576405861389511594.html?mod=WSJAsia_hpp_LEFTTopStories">was noted very early on</a> by many commentators...</li>
<li><i>pharmacies still shut in the middle of the day</i>: This doesn't merit a response. The reason Greece is in an unprecedented depression is certainly not the traditional arrangements on the work schedule of pharmacies. If they mean the liberalization of professions, it is now in effect in Greece in such a drastic and idiotic way in most cases, that it has destroyed the livelyhoods of thousands of people while creating practically no jobs for anybody else.</li>
</ul>
<div>
This is the sort of propaganda that promotes that idea that the reason for this whole Greek disaster, is not the actual policies imposed by the troika, which came to Greece with general blueprints and no idea about the reality of Greece's economy, vindicating<a href="http://www.whirledbank.org/ourwords/stiglitz.html"> Joseph Stiglitz's views on the IMF missions to various part of the world</a> - but now with a local, ECB flavor of ineptitude:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">
When the IMF decides to assist a country, it dispatches a "mission" of economists. These economists frequently lack extensive experience in the country; they are more likely to have firsthand knowledge of its five-star hotels than of the villages that dot its countryside. They work hard, poring over numbers deep into the night. But their task is impossible. In a period of days or, at most, weeks, they are charged with developing a coherent program sensitive to the needs of the country. Needless to say, a little number-crunching rarely provides adequate insights into the development strategy for an entire nation. Even worse, the number-crunching isn't always that good. The mathematical models the IMF uses are frequently flawed or out-of-date. Critics accuse the institution of taking a cookie-cutter approach to economics, and they're right. Country teams have been known to compose draft reports before visiting. I heard stories of one unfortunate incident when team members copied large parts of the text for one country's report and transferred them wholesale to another. They might have gotten away with it, except the "search and replace" function on the word processor didn't work properly, leaving the original country's name in a few places. Oops.</blockquote>
There is no doubt, in short, that the Greek government, a most obedient group of creditors' overseers, lacks credibility. First and foremost it lacks credibility among its population. All polls show, <a href="http://histologion.blogspot.com/2012/02/battle-around-syntagma-square.html">and Sunday's demos proved</a>, that this is a government that has lost all real political legitimacy, and the two parties that support it are in free fall. But the reason it lacks this legitimacy, the reason that they are ineffective tools for the implementation of the IMF/ECB programme is exactly because they are trying to implement a political project of mass pauperization and destruction of the minimal social state that existed in Greece before the arrival of the troika. This is not only an unjust and violent plan, but also a plan fraught with contradictions, misdiagnoses, and ideological fixations that apart from destructive also make it unworkable. It is, I admit, a display of evil political genius, that this impossibility is used to reinforce its brutality, at least as far as the other suckers in this mass bank bailout that is sold under the guise of Greece's bankruptcy, are concerned, namely the taxpayers of the loaning countries. Money given to "Greece" in fact will end up a. feeding Greek banks, already bailed out lavishly on taxpayer money, though their ownership structure will be preserved, with sums that are two orders of magnitude larger than their current market evaluation b. To the PSI participants c. To pay of already existing debt. There is no d. It bodes ill for the future of Greece that the memorandum (which parliament approved in a few hours, in a draft version that had blanks on actual sums of money involved, to be filled after its approval!) is a straight jacket that in practice commandeers the Greek economy for the benefit of bankers and other creditors, to the detriment of its population. That is why the Greek government lacks credibility even to lenders: a democratically illegitimate government facing elections soon, is not credible because it is not stable. Which brings us to recent developments<br />
<br />
<br />
<h2>
An EU coup?</h2>
The severity of the measures and the blatant breach of any sort of national sovereignty by the new loan deal, coupled with the growing strength of the actual left in Greece, has created a climate of insecurity for the powers that be in the EU - powers, I should add that are already seen as enemies by much of the Greek population. Thus the German Finance Minister and the EPP axis of austerity around him are apparently considering <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2012/02/16/business/greek-debt-crisis-battle-wills/">an ultimatum, or is it blackmail</a>? call it what you will:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">
There were signs a group of triple A-rated governments, including
Germany, Finland and the Netherlands, were hardening their stance
towards Athens. During a conference call among eurozone finance
minsters, the three countries suggested they may want additional letters
from other smaller Greek parties and openly discussed the possibility
of postponing Greek elections.<br />
Ahead of the call, Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister,
said in a radio interview Greece might delay its polls and install a
technocratic government that does not include politicians like Mr
Venizelos and Mr Samaras, similar to the model currently in place in
Italy.</blockquote>
So elections <a href="http://tomorrowseconomy.wordpress.com/2012/02/16/did-the-german-finance-minister-seriously-just-suggest-greece-postpone-elections/">should be put off</a>, according to the debtors wishes, despite the fact that Samaras has guaranteed elections will be held in April and that it is blatantly obvious that the current government is totally at odds with the popular sentiment, as is the parliament. This is not a democratic union anymore. This is a tyranny where political leaders are extorted into signing letters of submission and adherence to a dead-end policy, that has failed in multiple parts of the world. This is the neoliberal cancellation of democracy, the emergence of the European Central Bank as an instrument of transformation of the European Project to some sort of market-driven dystopia. This is not tolerable, and it's not just about Greece anymore.<br />
<br />
It seems that the Greek debacle, the realisation of the extent to which European elites are ready to use the debt crisis as an instrument for the neoliberal transformation of the EU has stirred popular forces around the world. From <a href="http://www.europeagainstausterity.org/?p=622">England</a>, to <a href="http://www.humaniteinenglish.com/spip.php?article1974">France</a>, to <a href="http://storyful.com/stories/1000021672">Spain, </a>, <a href="http://euobserver.com/1015/115267">Belgium</a>, <a href="http://www.demotix.com/photo/1041674/demonstration-solidarity-greek-people-rome">Italy</a>, even as far away as <a href="http://occupysf.org/2012/02/15/greece-solidarity-protest/">San Francisco</a>, a lot of people realize that the fight in Greece is more than about fiscal rectitude and balancing budgets, it is the first in a series of battles that will decide the way the debt crises will unfold in Europe and beyond, whether the EU will become another labor wasteland and whether Social Europe as we have known it will continue to exist and develop.<br />
<br />
That is the battle we're fighting here, not just for our own skins, although we're trying to avert a descent to a humanitarian disaster, but also the first battle in a world-wide social war over the debt, over who controls the economy and whom it should benefit...<br />
<i>[A <a href="http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2012/2/16/211011/280">briefer and more focused version of this story can be found at the European Tribune</a>] </i></div>taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-84649171677886308112012-02-13T04:14:00.001+02:002012-02-16T18:50:56.898+02:00The battle around Syntagma square<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<img src="http://a8.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/417395_348305731856234_100000304290019_1118641_1377665142_n.jpg" width="480" /><br />
<br />
<i>Around 11, I tried to return to the protests. I had to turn back. It was impossible to reach down-town. ~50 buildings have been set on fire and the smell of tear gas is overpowering. A few minutes ago a police precinct was attacked. A bank in Volos was burned to the ground, while MPs offices were attacked in Corfu, Western Greece and Crete... </i><br />
<br />
The mobilization was unprecedented. By 5 o'clock Syntagma was full, so was Omonia square, and almost all of the surrounding streets - but it's difficult to gauge participation though because as soon as the square started to fill up the police attacked the protesters with large amounts of teargas... There is an estimate around the tweetosphere of 500.000, this is not unrealistic. Bear in mind though that after the first chemicals people, especially older people, decided not to show up, or attempt to approach Syntagma.<br />
<br />
Even the orderly and robust communist union's block didn't make it to Syntagma although they attempted an approach from three different directions. The Syriza block attempted many times to reach parliament. They were pushed back, and the block was attacked around 10 - 10:30. <br />
<br />
The cops were throwing tear gas canisters in the middle of huge but peaceful crowds. The number of people injured and taken to the hospital tonight officially is 75, but in reality it's much more, the makeshift first aid stations around Syntagma (some of which I hear were attacked by the police) treated scores of people....<br />
<br />
<img src="http://a4.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/425268_343820925658537_100000918963309_1028782_258984462_n.jpg" width="480" /><br />
<br />
Among the first to be hit were Greek resistance icon Manolis Glezos and music composer Mikis Theodorakis (89 and 91 years old respectively), giving a signal that the police was not about to spare anyone. It was obvious that they had orders to keep Syntagma square clear and they did it with extreme brutality.<br />
<br />
After that, things got wild, either through some sort of concerted black-block action, or whatever, one after the other buildings were set on fire, banks initially but then other buildings: coffee shops, and cinemas among them - grand old buildings of great contemporary historical significance sadly.<br />
As I write this Athens is still ablaze, and I fear this might be the start of a trend, not just an explosion. Certainly the number of people despising both the police and the current government skyrocketed today and as the state is reduced more and more to shows of police brutality anti-authoritarian or even just blind violence will grow more frequent.<br />
<br />
About the vote: As expected. The two leaders, the political and electoral nullity (8% approval rate) of George Papandreou and Antonis Samaras (soon to follow him in disrepute) threw out a total of 41 MPs from their parties. The two teams of expelled MPs are strong enough to create two new parties: one at PASOK's left perhaps (although most of them are also in disrepute exactly for following the PASOK leadership's orders for so long) and one at ND's populist right. Panos Kammenos, an economic populist (and virulent nationalist , it has to be said) is said to be preparing such a party, though not all of the MPs who were expelled would feel comfortable in such a political environment.<br />
<br />
The left will gain: Democratic Left as a more "moderate" left is receiving a huge inflow of moderate PASOK voters, looking for a less damaged political roof, but also SYRIZA and KKE have stabilized at very high numbers and the current climate of popular unrest will probably strengthen them. All three of these parties voted against the memorandum and SYRIZA and KKE have promised to undo all of its measures one by one, on constitutional grounds...<br />
<br />
There is talk of a continuous general strike planned for most of the country's public enterprises, and a continuous series of strikes in the rest of the public and private sector. I think it is labor now, more than any other part of the Greek population that will carry the torch of the popular battle... <br />
<br />
I would also like to point out that those who are building a Europe of solidarity, a real European Union? well it's not Merkel...<br />
<img src="http://a3.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/s720x720/428590_10150556648226958_167785411957_9394094_396855079_n.jpg" width="550" /></div>taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-22600145345628313662012-02-12T14:52:00.000+02:002012-02-16T18:49:50.697+02:00Greece: They must not pass...<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis9HXzKAgYhw9Efzsp_KluhyphenhyphenwTcMuf2uSZxvKJNDE7x71DvRcFtX1wTf9pEgxCbEfmpqcQgaTUi-sg76oHMxszqzBvKFj7BZ0HYoBw2fVpRqYBvp1OZI0DPT9k2xxH4QMeQAfv3Q/s1600/PICT0098.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis9HXzKAgYhw9Efzsp_KluhyphenhyphenwTcMuf2uSZxvKJNDE7x71DvRcFtX1wTf9pEgxCbEfmpqcQgaTUi-sg76oHMxszqzBvKFj7BZ0HYoBw2fVpRqYBvp1OZI0DPT9k2xxH4QMeQAfv3Q/s320/PICT0098.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/feb/12/greece-cant-take-any-more">"Martial law has to be imposed for these measures to be implemented"</a> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<a href="http://leninology.blogspot.com/2012/02/scenes-from-class-struggle-in-greece.html">This loan shark says</a>, make them pay, beat them until they pay
everything, but don't beat them so hard that they can't keep paying.
That loan shark says, if you don't make an example of this one, the
others won't respect you. Beat them to death. And it is between these
two poles that the bankers, ratings agencies, and EU leaders oscillate... </blockquote>
How is Greece taking <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/cartoon/bill_jamieson_fuse_is_lit_as_battered_greece_nears_the_edge_1_2112771">the new loan deal</a> that accompanies the <a href="http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_08/02/2012_426838">PSI</a>? Most compare it to<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Latest-News-Wires/2012/0210/Greeks-hit-the-streets-comparing-latest-austerity-measures-to-dictatorship"> a dictatorship</a>, a foreign occupation, the kind of terms a victor imposes on a defeated country. No wonder: Two years of the most grinding austerity, has caused a destruction of the Greek economy that has no precedent, in peacetime, as official nominal wages dropped 15%, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/09/us-greece-unemployment-idUSTRE8180PI20120209">unemployment passed the 20%</a> mark and, according to polling company VPRC, the bottom 90% of Greek households, suffered in 2011 alone loss of income<i> on average</i> ~45% of their incomes. Greece is already a "<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/14/us-greece-workers-idUSTRE7AD1EX20111114">labor wasteland</a>" where jobs are near impossible to find and when they materialize they are more likely to be "black", uninsured, well below the poverty threshold.Yet the new loan deals mandate among other things:<br />
- The dismantling of collective bargaining and the annulment of the current collective agreement. "Labor law" in Greece will not be a meaningful subject any more<br />
- Across the board cuts in nearly all of private sector wages and salaries to the tune of 22%. This includes the minimum wage (which will be now around 580 euros net, and under 500 euros if you are a new entrant into the job market). This affects all sort of benefits i.e. the unemployment benefit which is reduced to 369 from 461 euros. This in a country where the cost of living in its capital is still higher than that of <a href="http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Greece&city1=Athens&country2=Germany&city2=Berlin">Berlin</a><br />
- Immediate elimination of rent subsidies for the poorer, cuts in pensions, mass privatization at fire sale prices (including the Athens and Thessaloniki water companies, and the lottery/football pool company, whose market price right now is at two years profits) etc. This on top of <a href="http://histologion.blogspot.com/2011/12/austerity-greek-road-to-hell.html">galloping social destruction</a>, a <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2811%2961556-0/fulltext">health system that is going to the dogs</a> (the decay of which is producing even <a href="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/02/the-wages-of-austerity-superbug-runs-wild-in-greek-hospitals.html">stronger superbugs</a>) and public services being destroyed or annihilated.<br />
- At the same time whatever debt will remain - and it will be huge and
unsustainable anyway - will now be under English law, and not Greek law,
meaning that the terms of the loans will be draconian. <br />
<br />
And much, much more: 650 pages of it that Greek MPs were required to read in 24 hours since they received the package, Saturday, to vote on it on Sunday. The process is illegitimate, and constitutionally questionable yet the two government coalition partners (socialists and conservatives - the far right LAOS rightly figured that this will destroy it electorally and removed its ministers from the government), are extorting their MPs: "pain or destruction" they warned, along with the PM. Everything will be rationed, Greece will leave the euro and remain a third world country for ever. Sane people disagree. But they are not in government.<br />
<br />
Τhe political system is shaken: MP after MP from the ruling coalition either resigns (at least 5 now, but probably more, I've lost count) or announces that they will vote against the new plan. These include among others the former economy minister Louka Katseli, and notably Socialist MP and former World Bank and IMF economist <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elena_Panaritis">Elena Panariti</a>s, who was close to tears in the Parliament commission today, stating that in her 16 year experience of drafting similar deals (and she worked with the World bank <i>in Peru</i>, for chrissakes), she has not seen anything quite as disastrous as the troika's offer.<br />
<br />
It is unsurprising then that despite being hammered by the media and the Papademos government (the Prime Minister being the sort of economist that argues in parliament that if workers don't accept huge wage cuts the unemployed will stay unemployed - this as real wages are collapsing anyway,) most Greeks prefer immediate bankruptcy to this. The colonial attitude of Ollie Rehn and Jean Claude Junker only inflamed public opinion. What seeps through the media from EU and especially establishment opinion on how this is all the Greeks fault and they should suck it up because they are overpaid, lazy etc. has already caused the first instance of German flag-burning and has resulted in the first time ever that the EU as an institution has a negative reception according to a latest poll.<br />
<br />
And so Greece strikes and fights back:<br />
<br />
The Law school in Athens under occupation by students, the health ministry by mental health doctors who protest the near-total defunding of mental care, the ministry of Labor by workers belonging to the communist union, the electric grid authority in the ministry of environment and energy by the power company workers' union (a couple of days ago they held the minister hostage for a few hours, until he was released by riot police)... also occupied: the Holargos(a suburb of Athens) City Hall, in Larissa, Chania, Veria, Ermoupolis and Corfu the Regional Governor's building, in Rethymnon the City Hall, in Chania and Trikala the prefecture offices.<br />
<br />
I'm not sure how many of these occupations are still in effect, and it is likely that they have multiplied. They will serve as a launch pad all over Greece for what promises to be the largest protests ever (despite the weather) outside the parliament building in Athens and in major squares all over Greece. People are angry, no longer "indignant" but "outraged". If this government proceeds to pass this memorandum, all hell will break loose, on a social and a political level. The political system is destabilized, all options are on the table and theoretically elections are less then a couple of months ahead. And despite the rhetoric of this government's apologists, today's demonstrations are in reality the true pro-european demonstrations. In Greece today there will be the first of a series of big battles in defense of the European social contract, of labor. A test case, a guinea pig, because it is obvious that in one form or another this austeritarian disaster will be unleashed around the EU, and the core should not feel safe from harm. Already labor conditions and real wages in the EU southern periphery are converging downwards towards the poorest members of the union.<br />
<br />
Today, after three days of huge demonstrations and general strikes, Athens will be filled with rage. A police officer's union has declared that it will refuse to attack its brothers, and <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/10/us-greece-police-idUSTRE8190UC20120210">threatened the troika members with arrest</a>... People are prepared for the worse anyway though. I'm heading down to Syntagma to topple a foreign imposed bankers' government, gas mask in my pocket and mad as hell. They must not pass. They will not pass...<br />
<br />
<i>[The <a href="http://greekleftreview.wordpress.com/">Greek Left Review</a> has said it will have live coverage of demonstrations today]</i></div>taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-89395263733341470672012-01-06T03:51:00.000+02:002012-01-10T03:17:08.935+02:00IMF: The gaping abyss of "reform"<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>...Whenever the IMF tried to take care of countries’ debts, it created more problems than solutions</i> </blockquote>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i><b>Former Brazilian President <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2011/03/29/brazils-lula-tells-portugal-to-reject-imf-bailout-as-lisbon-faces-downgrade/">Lula Da Silva</a></b></i> </blockquote>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJyvWWoOB1XgBbQ1I7nyPUUAWhb_rRcbCTFz1osun0Nn6pgl8mXsVT6QyyUSo5oLXktMWttoMwFh4Qs1VQPPu6Djn7ivSGGOE2T2cJB01upIjUrJumX7w54JmThl8v3gnnXB9p/s1600/austerity_world_tour_greece.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="257" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJyvWWoOB1XgBbQ1I7nyPUUAWhb_rRcbCTFz1osun0Nn6pgl8mXsVT6QyyUSo5oLXktMWttoMwFh4Qs1VQPPu6Djn7ivSGGOE2T2cJB01upIjUrJumX7w54JmThl8v3gnnXB9p/s400/austerity_world_tour_greece.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
About a month ago, on the 16th of December, IMF mission chief for Greece, <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2011/CAR121611A.htm">Poul Thomsen, told reporters</a> that the country's economy:
<br />
<blockquote>
“...is continuing to trend downwards, reflecting that the hoped for improvement in market sentiment and in the investment climate is not materializing,”</blockquote>
Having finally recognized, after two years of producing <a href="http://histologion.blogspot.com/2011/12/austerity-greek-road-to-hell.html">an unmitigated societal and economic disaster</a>, the failure of its plans, its estimates and its projections, one would expect the IMF to backtrack from its pro-depression policies, and start proposing something less catastrophic for Greece and the rest of the EU periphery (and eventually the whole of the EU and the rest of the world). Well one wouldn't really, if they knew the history of the IMF and the recent history of the EU debt debacle, but that <i>would </i>be the rational thing to do. Actually the IMF did the exact opposite: after a treatment that has driven the patient close to death, <a href="http://www.ansamed.info/ansamed/en/news/sections/economics/2011/12/13/visualizza_new.html_13633111.html">it is </a><a href="http://www.ansamed.info/ansamed/en/news/sections/economics/2011/12/13/visualizza_new.html_13633111.html">asking to increase the dosage of the same deleterious medicine</a> in line with the Merkozy school of Hooverian economics:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"The numbers show that Greece's budget deficit continued to rise
in November, while the recession, spurred on by suffocating
austerity measures, has cancelled out a large part of the extra
income that the government hoped to gain from emergency taxes.
Indeed, provisional figures from the Ministry of Finance show
that the state budget's "black hole" broadened by 5.1% in the
first 11 months of this year, reaching 20.52 billion euros,
compared to a total of 19.5 billion a year ago.<br />
<br />
In order drastically to reduce public spending, therefore, the
so-called "troika" has asked the Athens government to carry out
further severe austerity measures, including the redundancy of a
further 150,000 public sector workers by 2015, in addition to
the 30,000 who will be released by the end of this month. The
demands of the "troika"... were announced by the Minister for Administrative
Reform, Dimitris Reppas, following a meeting with
representatives of the international creditors: Matthias Mors,
Mark Flanagan and Bob Traa. Reppas explained to the officials
that the redundancy of surplus state employees has not had the
desired effect because the measure was applied hurriedly and
without correct assessment..."</blockquote>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0fHZ1R7c7w1n0/439x.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="209" src="http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0fHZ1R7c7w1n0/439x.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">IMF eparch for Greece P.Thomsen</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Along with all that, and a barrage of new taxes on the already buckling shoulders of employees and pensioners who cannot evade taxes, add the <a href="http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-01-06/markets/30596638_1_greece-troika-public-sector-salaries">customarily sadistic and destructive extortions</a> accompanying every installment of the "loan package" Greece has been receiving from the troika: demands for lowering or abolishing the minimum wage (it's ~8400 Euros/year net, theoretically, around 7000 Euros for youth entering the work force, and less than that for all the tens of thousands now forced into part-time jobs, usually with full-time schedules, and no overtime, and those who are months behind in salaries probably never to be received) and cancelling the 13th and 14th monthly salaries (misrepresented as bonuses when they are part of a workers' yearly compensation, cut into 14 installments for historical and practical reasons) - and that's for the private sector. Public sector workers having had their (mostly) meager salaries slashed by anything from 30 to 60% over the past two years, and having been fired at random for months now, are planned to be drastically reduced in number (they were no more than 14% of the workforce to begin with note, near the OECD average) while most teachers, and quite a few doctors etc will be among the working poor. <br />
Note that there is still one area in which Greek public spending outperforms most of the healthier economies of the world: <a href="http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_generic.jsp?channel=dti&id=news/dti/2012/01/01/DT_01_01_2012_p31-400104.xml&headline=Chopping%20Budgets%20In%20Europe">defence spending</a>. This is apparently, <a href="http://www.neurope.eu/article/merkel-and-sarkozy-want-samaras-sign-secure-leopard-and-rafale-sales">actively encouraged by both Merkel and Sarkozy</a>. <br />
<br />
<h3>
Is it a Greek thing?</h3>
The disaster that has befallen Greece, according to the various fiscal occupation authorities, is entirely of its own making, the reasons the IMF's predictions have failed is <a href="http://www.grreporter.info/en/international_monetary_fund_blames_greek_politicians_failure_reforms/5593">because of insufficient political support or not enough reforms</a>. But is that true? How successful have the policies of uber-hooverism been in less rowdy patients?<br />
<br />
<b>Ireland</b>: <a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0103/breaking3.html?via=mr">Troika warns of future welfare cuts</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The Coalition will have difficulty in keeping to its promise not to
adjust tax bands and credits in Government and will also need to rely on
cuts in social protection to provide the “bulk of savings”, troika
officials monitoring Ireland’s bailout programme have determined.<br />
Two
separate analyses by the EU Commission and the International Monetary
Fund published before Christmas have disclosed details of proposed
measures for the 2013 budget, which is unprecedented for Ireland. A
total of €3.5 billion in savings are planned; €1.25 billion in new taxes
and €2.25 billion in cuts.<br />
<br />
The analysis has also criticised aspects of Government policy, including
its decision to make larger than expected reductions in the capital
budget as well as the lack of punitive sanctions for unemployed people
who refuse to seek work.</blockquote>
...All of which lead to the obvious question: <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/dec/29/ireland-imf-reward?fb=native&CMP=FBCNETTXT9038">Ireland has done what the IMF wanted, but where is the reward? </a><br />
<div id="main-article-info">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Despite 'exceptional' efforts to meet IMF targets, Ireland has a rising deficit, sustained emigration and 15% unemployment... The fiscal adjustment, <a href="http://www.irishleftreview.org/2011/11/21/irelands-debt-crisis-roots-reactions/" title="irishleftreview.org: Irelands Debt Crisis: Roots and Reactions">according to economist Karl Whelan</a>,
is the equivalent of "€4,600 per person… the largest budgetary
adjustments seen in the advanced economic world in recent times". With
annual "adjustments" of €3-4bn flagged until 2015, the euphemism of
"purposeful austerity" cannot long camouflage the concerted assault on
the – already minimalist – social contract...</blockquote>
</div>
<blockquote>
<div id="main-article-info">
<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/dec/15/imf-greece-treatment-worse-disease" title="Cif: The IMF must realise that, in Greece, the treatment is worse than the disease">...Costas Douzinas</a>
recently documented how the IMF blames the failure of its growth
predictions, and austerity measures, on the impact of Greek public
resistance. Yet in well-behaved not-Greece, the same bad medicine has
resulted in a rising deficit, stagnant growth, sustained emigration, <a href="http://enoughcampaign.org/2011/12/05/michael-burke-its-official-austerity-isnt-working/" title="enoughcampaign.org: Michael Burke: Its official austerity isnt working">and unemployment at about 15%</a>. In its latest <a href="http://www.thejournal.ie/imf-calls-on-eu-to-support-ireland-310110-Dec2011/" title="www.thejournal.ie: IMF calls on EU to support Ireland">quarterly report</a>,
the IMF praised Ireland's "exceptional" efforts to meet its targets,
but this praise comes at a time when the fiction of a reward for good
behaviour is falling apart. </div>
</blockquote>
<div id="main-article-info">
</div>
<div id="main-article-info">
<b>Portugal</b>: Income inequality EU15 champion, is heading towards <a href="http://www.google.gr/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=portuguese%20austerity&source=newssearch&cd=4&ved=0CC0QqQIwAw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2Fe048b072-24c5-11e1-ac4b-00144feabdc0.html&ctbm=nws&ei=dO4IT7j5GMXrOZH73bkJ&usg=AFQjCNGIF7gjweKTaz0yBAs6DUUFG5nNtw&sig2=K7MvNx6gsyYIMDavcS-UEQ&cad=rja">even greater income disparity</a>, as are apparently all the <a href="http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_03/01/2012_420985">already highly unequal</a> "restructured" peripheral <a href="http://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2012/01/06/spains-rich-are-getting-richer/">countries</a> - this being of course not a side effect but an aim of the IMF / ECB/ EU programmes. Meanwhile, this year's logistic trick that reined in the Portuguese deficit <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-20/portugal-will-narrow-2011-budget-deficit-to-about-4-of-gdp-1-.html">can't be repeated next year</a>:</div>
<div id="main-article-info">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The government had set a goal to trim the deficit from
9.8 percent of GDP in 2010 to 5.9 percent in 2011 and to 4.5
percent next year. The 2012 budget includes a plan to eliminate
the summer and Christmas salary payments for state workers
earning more than 1,100 euros ($1,443) a month. Tax deductions will be reduced and the government plans to increase the value-
added tax rate on some goods. </blockquote>
</div>
<div id="main-article-info">
Or as the <a href="http://www.iif.com/">IIF</a> has <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/01/05/european-banks-face-more-pressure-to-shed-government-debt/">put it</a>:</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div id="main-article-info">
<b style="font-weight: normal;">Portugal</b>, which has “experienced serious fiscal
slippages,” is trying to meet a deficit target of 4.5% of GDP. Doing so
would require a fiscal contraction valued at 6.1% of GDP, in a year in
which growth is expected to drop by 3%. “This represents a very
demanding objective and lack of progress could heighten market concern.”</div>
</blockquote>
<br />
<b>Spain</b>: The new conservative government has already reneged on its promises as a result of troika pressure and <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/30/spain-cuts-idUSL6E7NU1RS20111230">missed targets</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Spain's new government said
on Friday that this year's budget deficit would be much larger
than expected and announced a slew of surprise tax hikes and
wage freezes that could drag the country back to the centre of
the euro zone debt crisis.
In its first decrees since sweeping to victory in November,
the centre-right government said the public deficit for 2011
would come in at 8 percent of gross domestic product, well above
an official target of 6 percent.
It announced initial public spending cuts of 8.9 billion
euros ($11.5 billion) and tax hikes aimed at bringing in an
additional 6 billion euros a year to tackle the shortfall.</blockquote>
And things<a href="http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Spains-new-govt-vows-to-fight-tax-evasion-Q8PZH?OpenDocument"> look bleak for the foreseeable future</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Rajoy's government is taking quick action so as to meet a promise to
slash the annual public deficit to 4.4 per cent of gross domestic
product in 2012, come what may.<br />
The government has acknowledged
Spain will miss its goal of reducing the public deficit to 6.0 per cent
of GDP in 2011 from 9.3 per cent the year before. The 2011 deficit may
even top 8.0 per cent, ministers say.<br />
The Popular Party government
says the deficit slippage in 2011 could force it to implement another
20 billion euros in austerity measures for 2012, on top of the
originally estimated savings target of 16.5 billion euros.<br />
The
government also announced that the social security fund's accounts are
worse than had been feared, with a 2011 deficit of 668 million euros.
The previous Socialist government had forecast a social security surplus</blockquote>
But it isn't just the unclean PIGS, who are in trouble, austerity (certainly the open-ended, turbo-austerity we're witnessing being implemented around the world) <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2012/jan/06/europe-cutting-hope/">hasn't worked</a> because it <i>never </i>worked in the interests of the societies subjected to it:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Indeed, austerity economics has not worked in one single case in
Europe in the last two years. When David Cameron’s government imposed a
first round of harsh spending cuts in 2010, it utterly failed to revive
the British economy as promised. To the contrary, it probably cut a
budding recovery short. Unemployment and the deficit as a percent of <span class="caps">GDP</span>
remained high. Some pro-Conservative observers I met at the time
assured me that the Cameron team, led by George Osborne, the Chancellor
of the Exchequer, was pragmatic and would reverse course on austerity if
it wasn’t working. Yet when growth basically ground to a halt in late
2011, the Cameron team only doubled down, making further cuts. We need
more of the same medicine, they told their citizens, a record number of
whom are unemployed. Britian is a hair’s breadth away from outright
recession only two years after its last one.
</blockquote>
<br />
So, no Mr. Thomsen, the IMF / ECB failure was not due to some Greek particularity. It is systemic and ubiquitous. part and parcel of what austerity is <i>supposed to do</i>. Indebted countries in the EU periphery can get an idea about where they will be next year socially, if these policies are not resisted, by looking at Greece now . We're a year ahead as far as social despair is concerned (possibly a couple more years from richer countries). And by just sitting there and doing nothing, dear European reader, you're not helping avert it. Protest, organize, demand. Elect those who are explicitly and adamantly against the destruction of social Europe. Or, as our brothers from across the pond might put it, <b>fight the 1%</b>...</div>
[An extended and slightly rearranged version of this post is <a href="http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2012/1/9/201252/6246">cross-posted at the European Tribune</a>]taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-4326870536922073502011-12-30T02:09:00.002+02:002019-04-17T21:43:02.395+03:00Austerity: the Greek road to hell<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7162/6591479713_d7e9fd410d_b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7162/6591479713_d7e9fd410d_b.jpg" width="300" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A beggar in Syntagma square, Athens, 27.12.2011</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
As the Euro crisis unfolds, and the European social model remains under attack by the mindless political armies of orthodox neoliberalism, spread across the continent in positions of power, and the bankers they represent, all is hardly well in Greece. The Greeks, having served as lab-rats for extreme-austerity, have come to realize one thing: Austerity is not a fiscal programme. It is a political project: a project of societal and financial sabotage, aiming at a radical upwards redistribution of wealth in an already very unequal country - indeed a whole continent. This is how the austeritarian disaster zone looks like from the ground:<br />
<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><blockquote class="tr_bq">
<a href="http://greece.greekreporter.com/2011/12/24/christmas-holidays-in-caves-for-homeless-people-of-athens/">Back to the Caves</a>: "Dozens of homeless people in Athens will spend the Christmas holidays
in the sheltering caves of Philopappou Hill, away from the rain and the
cold weather.
<br />
According to two reports conducted by the Ministry of Health and the
Municipality of Athens and published by Real News, there are many new
age homeless, who once were businessmen and traders, and are now
penniless, lying on the streets.<br />
The shocking truth is that among those people there are families as well."</blockquote>
</li>
<li><blockquote class="tr_bq">
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.greeknewsonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/homeless-greece.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="144" src="http://www.greeknewsonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/homeless-greece.jpg" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Homeless in Athens</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<a href="http://greece.greekreporter.com/2011/12/20/greeces-new-middle-class-homeless-hold-a-degree-and-a-laptop/">Meet the new homeless</a>: With an average age of 47, 11% of Greece’s homeless have a university
degree (!) and 23.5% hold a high school diploma, while only 9.3% are
illiterate. The new Greek homeless class members have laptops and
iPhones, remnants of their “old” lives. “They come to us in suits with
their laptops in hand. These citizens a couple of months ago had
ordinary lives. They had a job, a home and car,” says Nikitas Kanakis,
the head of Doctors Without Borders in Athens. Counselors from
the Department of <i>Homeless</i> Services describe a similar
situation. “We even have homeless from suburbs like Kifisia and Voula [upper class suburbs of Athens]!
They come here with their laptops and expensive smart phones they once
used for their work, shocked and depressed”.</blockquote>
</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><a href="http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=697788&vId=">Hunger</a>: Athens Mayor George Kaminis told the daily that the city's homeless had
increased by around 20 per cent while queues at soup kitchens organised
by municipal and <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/industries/greek-church-promises-to-boost-charity-meals-as-poverty-deepens/2011/12/22/gIQAOzlkBP_story.html">church</a> organisations were up 15 per cent."Care workers no longer meet typical homeless people, they meet a
person who likely had a perfectly organised life weeks previously," said
Kaminis, who has asked for additional state funding for city welfare
services."We have noticed a dramatic increase in our mess halls over the recent
period," added Chrysostomos Symeonidis, head of the Athens archdiocese
poverty fund. "We distribute over 10,000 meals on a daily basis and 250,000 meals are
given out nationwide on a weekly basis," Symeonidis said... [oh and <a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2011/12/13/143637187/greeks-stomach-economic-crisis-with-help-of-starvation-recipes">Starvation Recipes</a> are all the rage]</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>
<a href="http://greece.greekreporter.com/2011/10/13/greek-crisis-out-of-control-primary-school-pupils-faint-from-starvation/">...hunger in the schools</a>: “Our pupils faint due to starvation. We see our pupils coming to school
with holes in their shoes. They don’t even have money to buy food from
the school canteen”</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/dec/28/greek-economic-crisis-children-victims">Which then leads to <i>abandoned children</i></a>: 'Propelled by poverty, 500 families had recently asked to place children
in homes run by the charity SOS Children's Villages, according to the
Greek daily Kathimerini. One toddler was left at the nursery she
attended with a note that read: "I will not return to get Anna. I don't
have any money, I can't bring her up. Sorry. Her mother."'</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><a href="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2017027107_apeugreecedeafincrisis.html">The disabled are also victims of the policies pursued</a>: "In August, a five-year-old program providing deaf people with
interpreters was suspended after the government abruptly cut its funding
to less than half. Overnight, 15,000 deaf people around Greece were
left without help to report a crime to the police, rent a house or go to
a job interview. Funding cuts have opened up gaps across welfare services, with
slashed services and longer waiting times for vulnerable groups
including the blind, recovering organ-transplant patients, autistic
children, and paraplegics in need of physiotherapy"</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>At the same time <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2811%2961556-0/fulltext">the already decrepit health system is further eroded according to <i>The Lancet</i></a>: "Overall, the picture of health in Greece is concerning. It reminds us
that, in an effort to finance debts, ordinary people are paying the
ultimate price: losing access to care and preventive services, facing
higher risks of HIV and sexually transmitted diseases, and in the worst
cases losing their lives. Greater attention to health and health-care
access is needed to ensure that the Greek crisis does not undermine the
ultimate source of the country's wealth—its people". Giving birth <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/greek-hospitals-turned-away-pregnant-women-040000634.html">is now a luxury activity</a>. I suppose women are expected to give birth at home by themselves - a great way to bring infant and maternal mortality to truly third world levels...</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>And, desperate, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/world/greece-suicide-rate-soars-20111219-1p2ej.html">people kill themselves at an unprecedented rate</a>: "Greece's suicide rate has reached a pan-European record high, with
experts attributing the rise to the country's economic crisis and
painful austerity measures. Statistics from the Greek Ministry of Health show a 40
per cent rise in those taking their own lives between January and May
this year compared with the same period in 2010"</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
And the economy? Surely all those wizards of austerity must have improved the flailing Greek economy, raising its productivity etc. No? Well... No:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li> <a href="http://www.ansamed.info/ansamed/en/news/nations/greece/2011/12/19/visualizza_new.html_15695541.html">Greece: heavy industry, desperate measures to survive</a>: Heavy industry in Greece, particularly the sectors that produce steel, concrete, aluminium, copper and paper, are desperately trying to find ways to stem some of the negative effects of the economic crisis the country is going though. Some companies even sell up to 70% of their production abroad at cost price, just to be able to keep producing... Energy-intensive industries in Greece fight a daily battle for their survival on a domestic market that has been in recession for four years, with low liquidity, limited financial resources, rising interest rates and a series of austerity measures that seem to ignore their impact on the real economy, like the high taxes on energy</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><blockquote class="tr_bq">
<a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/greek-unemployment-soars-in-third-quarter-20111216-1oxcx.html">Unemployment is rocketing</a>, reaching fearsome heights:<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="425" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="https://www.google.gr/publicdata/embed?ds=z8o7pt6rd5uqa6_&ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=unemployment_rate&fdim_y=seasonality:sa&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country_group&idim=country:gr&ifdim=country_group&tstart=893797200000&tend=1314565200000&hl=en&dl=en&q=greece+unemployment" width="480"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="background-color: white; border: medium none; color: black; overflow: hidden; text-align: left; text-decoration: none;">
The jobless rate rose to 17.7 per cent in the third quarter compared
to 16.3 per cent in the previous quarter and 12.4 per cent in the
corresponding quarter of 2010, the Hellenic statistical authority said... It added that there were over 878,000 people out of work
during the three-month period, most of them women and young employees
aged under 30</div>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
</blockquote>
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>At the same time young (and not-so-young) <a href="http://www.setimes.com/cocoon/setimes/xhtml/en_GB/features/setimes/articles/2011/10/24/reportage-01">Greeks are leaving the country</a> or are planning to leave soon, the most highly educated and employable among them: "Lois Lambrianidis, an economist and geographer at the University of Macedonia in Thessaloniki, told <i>The Australian</i> that 9% of young Greek graduates emigrated between May 2009 and February 2010. "And in recent months, the departures are accelerating," he said, noting that Greece's population of 11 million includes about one million immigrants while the diaspora has seven million – and counting"</li>
<li>While <a href="http://m.npr.org/news/front/142908549?singlePage=true">alternative local currencies</a> have cropped-up in many towns, business is dismal, as <a href="http://greece.greekreporter.com/2011/11/15/68000-small-companies-closed-since-2010/">more and more small and medium businesses go broke</a>, and <a href="http://greece.greekreporter.com/2011/10/25/one-in-four-shops-have-been-forced-to-close/">one in four shops</a> have closed. This Christmas <a href="http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/316790">retail sales have dropped by 30%</a>... So much for a festive season...</li>
<li>At the same time <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/7557213/Greek-banks-hit-by-wealthy-citizens-moving-their-money-offshore.html">the wealthy are jumping ship</a>. As <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2050895/Greek-fat-cats-secretly-shifted-200bn-euros-Swiss-bank-accounts.html">enormous sums of money</a> are already out of the country, invested <a href="http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2011/06/03/as-crisis-mounts-greek-cash-pours-into-london-real-estate/">in property</a> as well as deposited in banks in tax-havens around the world...</li>
<li>The prospects are bleak, as <a href="http://www.ansamed.info/ansamed/en/news/nations/greece/2011/12/12/visualizza_new.html_12745303.html">the deep recession is continuing</a> and will surely extend to 2012 (and probably beyond that if policy doesn't change) making it a five-year <i><b>depression</b></i>. </li>
<li>The tax system has been transformed into a shifting, irrational mechanism, whose sole aim is to extract the last drop of blood mostly from those that already paid their taxes, or indeed those that were too poor to tax. The government has imposed an extra, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16284970">regressive property tax, to be paid through the electricity bill</a>, threatening to cut-off electricity to any households that can't, or refuse, to pay it. However there are so many times a vampire can feed off his victim. Already they are facing diminishing returns and a <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/dec/02/greece-in-revolt-over-property-tax">tax revolt </a></li>
<li>Wages are slashed across the board. After cutting public sector wages anywhere from 30-60%, meaning that most doctors and teachers are paid subsistence wages, <a href="http://greece.greekreporter.com/2011/12/12/the-troika%E2%80%99s-next-target-cut-private-sector-salaries/">the IMF, true to its traditional "enemy of the people profile", is demanding a similar across the board cut in the private sector</a> (what little they have left of it), in a job market where most workers are behind pay (some many months), no jobs are available and real wages are already below the official minimum wage</li>
</ul>
<ul>
</ul>
<div>
<br />
Things are, in other words, tough. Very tough. The kind of tough one associates with a war or a huge natural disaster. And do not think for a minute that all of this is irrelevant to you: if you live anywhere in Europe, periphery or center (but at this point probably anywhere in the Western world), this is in one form or another the future that has been prepared for you. Greece has been the canary in the coal-mine for social Europe in this crisis, a wretched and sorry bird, to begin with, admittedly, yet an indicator of the way things are going in Europe. Regardless of whether austerity is systemically viable in its own terms (it most probably isn't), the news is that the canary, is slowly yet steadily croaking. It is dying. Greek society is taking blows that will transform it for ever, in a path that no one knows where it takes and it is unraveling. So our suicides here, our untended ill, our abandoned children, our middle-class poor, our new homeless and hungry, they are an omen, a sign of things to come, across Europe. Or that seems to be the plan. The good news is that this society is taking it a lot better than some (I too) initially expected it would. <a href="http://roarmag.org/2011/06/grassroots-politics-flourish-in-greek-turmoil/">Solidarity networks have cropped up</a> all over Greece, while the <a href="http://www.occupiedlondon.org/blog/2011/12/09/solidarity-with-the-struggle-of-the-striking-workers-of-steelworks-lets-go-for-indefinite-wildcat-strikes/">support</a> to the <a href="http://inter.kke.gr/News/news2011/2011-12-19-steelworkers">striking</a> <a href="http://www.demotix.com/news/972089/steelworkers-demonstrate-athens-48th-day-strike">steel-workers</a> (from <a href="http://istanbulizein.wordpress.com/2011/12/15/solidarity-to-the-steelworkers-in-greece/">Greece but not only</a>), two months now in struggle for their livelihoods and lives, is going strong and their struggle is right now the rallying point of resistance to the destruction of all of our collective lives.<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMrNgRWITEYpTN7H47YDKFNOqCgX2ozH4Bvg45VD7c1o9qT2ie5CC_omubfcbB2cxSZbql0WK42RNyu84ycw-2iinYNbu7iVc6jo5sUi2nY1UsypUf9tZapWzKC0rwV-xI4hiCTA/s1600/.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMrNgRWITEYpTN7H47YDKFNOqCgX2ozH4Bvg45VD7c1o9qT2ie5CC_omubfcbB2cxSZbql0WK42RNyu84ycw-2iinYNbu7iVc6jo5sUi2nY1UsypUf9tZapWzKC0rwV-xI4hiCTA/s320/.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">High school students, express solidarity with the steel-workers after having gathered a few Euros from pocket change to contribute to the strikers fund</span></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
An interesting thing is happening at the political level: the "unserious" Left is gaining. <a href="http://www.marxist.com/greece-opinion-poll-left.htm">In a recent poll</a>, the "electoral influence" of the three left of the mainstream parties adds up to 37% - 41 percent if one adds up the smaller parties and the Greens, a number that is unprecedented and apparently rising. Whether this will coalesce to a viable government is doubtful: The communists consider everybody else a capitalist stooge, not serious about systemic change, the Democratic Left, the right splinter group from SYRIZA, seems to be more comfortable discussing a collaboration with PASOK (assuming there will be a PASOK left by the time the elections arrive) than with everybody else. However, popular pressure can work wonders, and one still hopes that Greece will be the first to throw a political wrench in the working of the austeritarian banksters and their political employees in Europe. That is assuming that the ruling Socialist - Conservative - Far Right coalition under a former ECB vice president, actually deigns to hold elections sometime in the near future as originally promised.<br />
<br />
The future remains at this point very opaque. The issue is whether the rest of the European peoples will need to arrive at the point of despair that Greeks have reached, before they react.</div>
</div>taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-73873178178713847272011-10-19T02:58:00.001+03:002012-01-09T03:49:49.890+02:00Greece on the Brink of Emergency: A Matter of Days<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.newsmania.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/GREECE97019510.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.newsmania.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/GREECE97019510.jpg" width="500" /></a></div>As Greece prepares for <a href="http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Greeks+brace+hour+general+strike/5564745/story.html">a 48 hour general strike</a>, promising to be the largest ever in a series of far from insignificant mobilizations over the past year and a half, there is a sense here that the coming week will be historical, fateful. The success of the strike over the following two days will be hard to measure, though it seems that there is an unutterable goal of toppling the government, which acts as a quasi colonial regime, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/18/eu-greece-taskforce-idUSL5E7LI1AC20111018">pressured to surrender the last vestiges of sovereignty</a>, <a href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/10/18/bloomberg_articlesLT9WWQ07SXKY.DTL">imposing a catastrophic austerity</a> in full knowledge that it is catastrophic.<br />
<br />
The situation is reaching a critical point and I reproduce below, as a general intro, a brief analysis on the current situation that Aris Leonas has been kind enough to send me, with minor edits:<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Greece on the Brink of Emergency: A Matter of Days<br />
</b> <br />
by Aris Leonas<br />
<br />
<i>[Note: This text is part of a longer article about the global crisis and resistance that is being written by Kolya Abramsky, and will explore questions of the emerging worldwide political struggle which is the latest stage of the crisis’ development; the limits of political reformism; control of key means of production and reproduction; and the question of force. It was hoped that this longer article could be finished already by now, but this has not been possible. However, due to the urgency of the situation in Greece, and the fact that the situation can change radically in the next few days, he has decided, together with Aris Leonas, who is the main author of this text on Greece, to send this part out separately].</i><br />
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In Greece a number of factors stand out, suggesting that Greece is on the verge of some major changes. The disruption of basic operations of the state in conjunction with the widespread certainty that the Greek debt cannot be controlled (constant rumours of default in the coming period) compose a picture of political instability and crisis which seems to be the precursor of a more generalized political crisis to be spread to the rest of the south European regimes first and possibly to the heart of the Eurozone given the accelerated tensions of the financial crisis and the disagreements among current leaderships in the Eurozone. The remaining days leading up to the summit of the EU leaders, on the 23rd October, and the G20 summit in the first week of November are considered crucial. Something has to give, and soon. And, it could go in many different directions, for better, or for worse. Rumours, which may or may not be true, are circulating regarding possible deployment of the EU EuroGendFor (Euro Gendamerie Force) military personell being called to Greece in the days ahead...<br />
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On the one hand, there has been an incredible level of political activity and mobilization from very broad layers of society. This has continued to intensify, bringing in ever greater numbers and becoming more and more continuous as the crisis has deepened much further since 2009. The sequence of movements follows this general scheme: broad student movement and riots during 2006-07 before the official announcement of the Greek debt crisis; weeks of urban rioting that took place in December 2008 as young people responded to the police killing of a teenager; mass demonstrations; 13 general strikes since the IMF deal; most political form of the movement of indignados (compared to the similar movement in Spain); the last step in this series of resistances is expressed through occupations of public spaces and buildings, and strikes in key industries such as transport or railways.<br />
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On the other hand, this high level of mobilization has not stopped or even slowed down the pace of austerity measures, nor the plans for mass privatizations, and repression has been growing. Protests have been met with extreme police violence, and increasingly strikes are being declared illegal.<br />
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Despite high levels of organizing, people report a profound sense of despair, and no clear sense of alternatives being built by people. There is widespread panic and a general sense of economic, political and mainly social collapse. Increasingly the reproduction of massive parts of the society is becoming more and more difficult, as society’s functioning grinds to a halt. Nothing is working, neither public services nor private deals.<br />
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Political organisations, such as parties on the left side of the spectrum to groups in the anti-authoritarian or autonomous spectrum, are under enormous pressure. The acceleration of the economic crisis has resulted in a serious political crisis and the complete lack of a concrete alternative is obvious. Voices on the left spectrum have begun whispering about the need to form a left government constituted by a broad coalition of the left parties and smaller groupings. However, they have been unable to articulate this idea in such a way as to inspire the broad movements and struggles which have appeared in a very sudden and decentralized way. This, despite the fact that these parties are actually potentially very strong, as they account for 26% in the polls, while the party in government accounts for only 15%, with almost 50% of the voters having declared that they will abstain from voting in any future elections. The range of left parties includes: Syriza, a left coalition born after the decade of Social Forums; the Communist Party – a traditional communist party with its own unions, that are widely criticized for being reluctant to join with the rest of the left in some type of coalition; Antarsia, a small coalition of anti-capitalist groups; and the Ecologists-Greens, a relatively new party linked to the European Greens).<br />
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People are under huge pressure. Increasing sections of the population are unable to pay taxes, pay back loans or even ensure the satisfaction of their basic subsistence needs, such as electricity, health services, housing etc.<br />
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Unemployment is increasing fast, and is expected to reach an average of 25% in the first semester of 2012. High taxes are being imposed through electricity bills, and the economy has contracted fast, and fear, or even panic, reigns among large parts of the active population. All of this has created a fluid mass of ex-workers, as well as over-exploited and insecure employees. These people are not connected to the traditional trade unions (these are the unions which have traditionally been, for the most part, attached to the two main political parties, i.e. the ruling PASOK party, and Nea Dimokratia, which was in power until it lost the elections in 2009). Unemployment and insecurity mainly affect the younger generations, which are forced to emigrate (mostly to North and Central Europe, and also Australia and Canada). This is especially so for high-skilled workers and those with with university degrees.<br />
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Current situation:<br />
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The level and intensity of struggles has grown rapidly since the summer and during the first weeks of October. The Greek version of the indignados movement (“Aganaktismenoi” in Greek), which ended with riots in June to mid July, seems to have completed its first cycle of existence, leaving behind a space for a broad basis for interaction among different movements and groups across the country. This has expressed itself in the form of many decentralized and spontaneous activities such as strikes and occupations in the public sector, as well as mass demonstrations and rioting. During this period, new forms of committees of struggle have emerged, increasing the number of participants and showing a willingness to unite behind the call for a 48-hour strike which was issued by the General Confederation of Workers (GSEE) and the Confederation of public servants (ADEDY) for the 19th-20th October. Although these committees are still very new, they have already shown themselves to be highly stable. They vary both in the form and place of struggle, ranging from low level unions in workplaces, to assemblies that organize occupations and neighbourhood assemblies that organize local struggles and unite during major calls, such as calls for demonstrations in the centre of Athens.<br />
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Several new forms of struggle have been born during this period. This includes occupations of (8) ministries and government offices, disruption of operations at different levels of the state, from local authorities all the way to state services such as tax offices and courts etc., the occupation of productive infrastructure (means of public transport, railways, occupations from the powerful union of workers in the Public Power Corporation). Every day smaller protests also disrupt the regular functioning of commercial, economic and social life. However, this high level of mobilization has, until now, as we mentioned, not managed to stop or slow down the pace of austerity measures, nor derail mass privatizations. Furthermore, the efforts at creating a concrete and broad organizing umbrella of all these movements has, so far, not given rise to any kind of new institutional form. Left parties, activists and workers meet during these struggles in a rather chaotic way. It is becoming increasingly important to try to ensure that these committees which have emerged become legitimate focal points for building and defending mass based popular power through struggle. <br />
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Until now the government has been trying to avoid any uncontrollable explosion from below (such as the ongoing occupations in the public power corporation, strike of workers in the cleaning sectors of the local authorities). Repression has been growing. Street protests are met with increasing levels of violence from the police. More and more strikes are declared illegal, and private companies are being hired by the government to take over tasks that are not being carried out due to occupations and strikes in the public sector etc. The army has even been called in to clean city streets, as cleaners are on strike.<br />
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Things are now coming to crisis point, and it is matter of days. In the run up to the summits mentioned above, the movement from below is intensifying its actions through strikes and demonstrations across the country. At the same time as mass activities are increasing, the government is also making moves from above, apparently in preparation for what will follow should the current government resign, and these plans are taking the antidemocratic measures to new levels, based around a state of emergency. <br />
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Certain moves from within the government show that this week is probably the most crucial of the crisis period in Greece. Especially important in this regard is a long article signed by three important ministers on Sunday the 16th October, and supported by the assistant PM and Minister of Finance E. Venizelos. This article asks people to loyally follow the policies agreed with the IMF, and to establish the consent of the silent majority against, the so-called vocal minorities who are disrupting the country’s political functioning. This is full of incredibly antidemocratic and authoritarian overtones, suggesting the urgency of the situation. Another important factor that adds to the image of a collapsing government is that increasing numbers of important trade unions and very large numbers of party members have been withdrawing from the ruling PASOK party, as well as one member of parliament. Rumours are rife about what scenarios might develop in the next-days, and it is virtually impossible to know which have their basis in fact and which do not. This includes the rumour that some kind of new antidemocratic social and political compromise will be established among the different centre-right parties, in the form of a national unity government, or the installation of a government of technocrats, or the installation of a state of emergency etc., in order to pre-empt the threat of an even worse scenario unfolding, a threat which remains unspoken from all sides. Presumably, this unspoken threat, which established political authorities understand all to well, is the threat of revolution from below. The question of political power in on the table, and the political crisis will be resolved in the struggles in the days and weeks ahead, in one way or the other.<br />
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This is a call for people in Europe, and other parts of the world, to watch closely the developments in Greece, and to be ready for the next stages in the development of this political crisis, which will soon spread, in all probability first to other parts of Southern Europe, and later to the European Union as a whole. The political crisis in Greece has taken approximately two years to reach its climax, and this time frame is likely to be greatly reduced in other countries as the European and global crisis accelerates. There is no time to lose.</div>taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com0