tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post110666238910145194..comments2023-09-09T17:41:33.146+03:00Comments on HISTOLOGION: taloshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-1106946258407256102005-01-28T23:04:00.000+02:002005-01-28T23:04:00.000+02:00I'm away for the weekend, so have to keep this sho...I'm away for the weekend, so have to keep this short. More in a bit, maybe.<br /><br />Bosniaks as part of either Croatia or Serbia -- forget it. It's as likely (and as reasonable) as asking Kosovars to rejoin Serbia. The Bosniaks don't hate Serbs the way Albanians do, but they've actually suffered more at Serb hands -- ~70,000 civilian dead, half a million refugees.<br /><br />Also, the numbers are bad. Very approximately, there are about 2.2 million Bosniacs, about one and a half million Bosnian Serbs, and maybe 700,000 Croats. Join that with Serbia, and you have a country of about 12 million, of which the Bosniaks are less than 20%. Not so good. The Radical Party in Serbia has nearly as many members as the entire Bosniak population. <br /><br />Join the Muslim-Croat piece with Croatia, though, and you have a country where just over a third is Bosniak. Throw in the returned Serbs and over 40% of Croatia would be non-Croat. No way are the Croats going for that. <br /><br />[Dear God, breaking up Yugoslavia was such a bad bad bad idea. What a colossal, thorough and multilateral screwup.]<br /><br />Charter of Minority Rights: it's not a bad idea, but keep in mind that all the relevant governments already subscribe to all relevant treaties and conventions on minority rights and always have. So it would be pretty much entirely symbolic. How to give it teeth is another good question. <br /><br />And what happens when/if some minority group starts kicking up a fuss? Slobo used to have this pious screed he'd roll out for the credulous, about how Serbia had like nineteen different minority groups and it didn't have trouble with any of them but one, and it was because this one had some terrorists, plain and simple. Spain recently outlawed a Basque party and sent the cops in to toss Basque nationalists' headquarters; I suspect that, under the proposed Charter, they'd be in violation.<br /><br />Ahh, time runs short. But. You very reasonably asked what my alternative would be. I'm not sure. Let me read the report (which may take a few days). Maybe I'll be like, oooh, Wesley Clark, scholarly yet with a manly firmness -- I love it -- and that'll be my starting point. Or maybe not. Will get back to you.<br /><br />cheers,<br /><br /><br />Doug M.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-1106926999801502032005-01-28T17:43:00.000+02:002005-01-28T17:43:00.000+02:00Well, Ok, I never said that it would be easy, eh?
...Well, Ok, I never said that it would be easy, eh?<br /><br />I was thinking of: <br /><br />- establishing a Balkan Charter for minorities, policed by the EU and punishable by EU entry talks delay.<br /><br />- have an open agenda about possible priorities. This is something that would have to be detrmined by the interested parties. Stability and economic viability would I imagine be crucial.<br /><br />- Although I am not in a position to make any concrete proposals for the actual redrawing of the map, this is one Sci-Fi scenario: <br />(All or most of) R.Srpska would be joining Serbia, Herzegovina would be joining Croatia (if Croatia agrees!), and the Bosnian Muslims would get to decide between an independent statelet (with or without the Bosnian Croats) or an extensive autonomy status (granted to all resulting "trapped" minorities) - inside which entity though is a rather difficult problem. Extra bonus points for the Serbs capturing Mladic and Karazic and a formal and official apology by the Serb government for atrocities committed - to be followed by reciprocal apologies for similar atrocities by all relevant entities. Yes it's pipe dreams. But if there's a decent-sized carrot on the other end you never know....<br /><br />- I agree that we have an artificial stability now, but I am expecting some heavy fallout from Kosovar independence. Not least of which is that, after Kosovo's seccession, I expect that even you wouldn't bet against the possibility of the Radicals being elected to office very soon... <br /><br />- <I>This is pretty explicitly giving up on the notion of hostile ethnic groups learning to live together. For ten years Europe has been telling Bosnians "you can do it... really... you can." Carve up Bosnia and you're conceding, "Ah, screw it, no you can't."</I>Well, it is kind of late for Europe to mourn for the lost multiculturalism, isn't it, after the enthusiastic support for the most hasty dissolution of Yugoslavia on exactly the opposite grounds, or the fact that the standards in Kosovo seem to be the inverse. Actually if you think about it rationally from a purely economic viewpoint, the whole of the former Yugoslavia should not have been broken up among more than two (or maybe three) states. <br /><br />- <I>You'd have to prioritize, because every one of these conflicts with a couple of others.</I>I know and I admit it. How would <B>you</B> prioritize? Is there some other idea you'd find preferable?taloshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-1106923085057725032005-01-28T16:38:00.000+02:002005-01-28T16:38:00.000+02:00H'm. Would Kosovar independence really be so insp...H'm. Would Kosovar independence really be so inspiring to, say, the Bosnian Serbs or the Macedonian Albanians? Data insufficient, but I'm not inclined to take this on faith. There are examples of successful political integration of minorities in SE Europe in the last 15 years -- Romania's Hungarians, Moldova's Gagauz. Even Bulgaria's Turks, if your main metric is stability. Heck, even the Serbs of Croatia were willing to settle for autonomy.<br /><br />Can't comment on the ICG report until I've read it.<br /><br />Council of Berlin II is an interesting notion, but let's be clear -- basically you're proposing to hand a big Serb-inhabited chunk of Bosnia over to Serbia, thereby screwing over the Bosniaks, in order to compensate Serbia for the loss of Kosovo. <br /><br />This isn't necessarily a bad idea, but it does have its gnarly bits. <br /><br />Cut Bosnia in half, and what do you have left? Well... a mostly Muslim statelet of a bit over two million people, landlocked, without any indigenous industry to speak of, in a not very attractive chunk of SE Europe. Sound familiar? It would basically be Kosovo North. (Well, except that Bosniaks are, on average, much better educated than Kosovars, and much more "European" in their thinking. But I don't think that would help much.) So, I'm not seeing a net gain in regional stability here.<br /><br />Oh, and of course the Croats would (quite reasonably) ask why they shouldn't have a cut. Imminent EU membership might shut them up, but one doubts the issue would die there.<br /><br />...you couldn't give the Serbs the Dayton line; that's 49% of the country by area, and includes most of its industry. (The Muslims got the pretty bit with the mountains, some mines, and a couple of nice agricultural valleys. The Croats got Herzegovina -- "snakes, stones, and Ustashe"). You'd have to chop their piece way back. And you'd still end up with plenty of Bosniaks inside Bigger Serbia, and vice versa.<br /><br />Crap, let's not even talk about Macedonia. Macedonia is probably too small to be economically viable as it is. Cutting it in two will not improve matters.<br /><br />Further. This is pretty explicitly giving up on the notion of hostile ethnic groups learning to live together. For ten years Europe has been telling Bosnians "you can do it... really... you can." Carve up Bosnia and you're conceding, "Ah, screw it, no you can't." ISTM that this is just as potentially destabilizing as an independent Kosovo. <br /><br />Details. You can't say "hold a conference" without thinking about how it would play out. What should its goals be? Regional stability? We've got that, even if it's artificially imposed. Greatest good of greatest number? Most economically rational borderlines? Justice? You'd have to prioritize, because every one of these conflicts with a couple of others. And someone would be left unhappy, so at least part of the solution would have to be imposed by force or the implicit threat thereof.<br /><br />I don't want to break you of the habit of proposing solutions, but this one is not easy. Even if it's only a least bad solution.<br /><br /><br />Doug M.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-1106848737033443712005-01-27T19:58:00.000+02:002005-01-27T19:58:00.000+02:00Seesaw, thanks for the comment.
I wonder: do you ...Seesaw, thanks for the comment.<br /><br />I wonder: do you agree that developments in Kosovo are not unlikely to affect Bosnia as well? And do you see any indication of a will to preserve the Bosnian federation in Bosnia? - given the election results it doesn't seem to be something popular, despite all the efforts.taloshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-1106788201020857702005-01-27T03:10:00.000+02:002005-01-27T03:10:00.000+02:00I agree we you:
a) Kosovo issue is the most danger...I agree we you:<br />a) Kosovo issue is the most dangerous one for whole Balkan, maybe even wider,<br />b) The solution proposed by ICG is too simple, and since I live in Bosnia, I can not but wonder - what happens here. <br />c) What about Macedonia (FYR)?<br />But then, looking what is happening in Iraq, listening to the treats re Iran...who knows what may happen???zdenka pregeljhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484903653746525806noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5657459.post-1106677850070485872005-01-25T20:30:00.000+02:002005-01-25T20:30:00.000+02:00A clarification: looking at the post again I saw t...A clarification: looking at the post again I saw that it might be misinterpreted as being supportive of this Balkan-scale "redrawing of borders". I am no such thing. It just seems to me that of all the bad options left (after the civil wars, the resurgence of idiotic nationalism in the area and the NATO bombings) this is potentially the least risky - as far as potential bloodiness is concerned.taloshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13680864841710474232noreply@blogger.com