OsamaBinLotto

/ terrorist / lotteries /
Given that the Osama bin Laden message was rather underwhelming and a rather poor "October Surprise"... I belatedly bring you... The October Surprise lottery: Osama bin Lotto!
Now that it's kind of late for these predictions (and anyway if anything happens tomorrow it will be the November surprise), you might want to check out the adaptability and inventiveness of online betting!

You pick the time and date among these October Surprises:

• Osama bin Laden captured;

• America attacks Iran ;

• America attacks North Korea ;

• Bush postpones the election.

• Cheney is dumped from the ticket.

This may seem like a goofy sweepstakes but there is a serious intent. The more that people are aware of the “October Surprise” before it happens, the less impact it could have and the less likely it will be to happen at all...

You see, it worked!

Adventure Capitalism

/ iraq / economy / thievery /
Spectacular revelations from Greg Palast about the planned hijack of Iraq's economy by the usual thieves:

In February 2003, a month before the U.S. invasion of Iraq, a 101-page document came my way from somewhere within the U.S. State Department. Titled pleasantly, “Moving the Iraqi Economy from Recovery to Growth,” it was part of a larger under-wraps program called “The Iraq Strategy.”

The Economy Plan goes boldly where no invasion plan has gone before: the complete rewrite, it says, of a conquered state’s “policies, laws and regulations.” Here’s what you’ll find in the Plan: A highly detailed program, begun years before the tanks rolled, for imposing a new regime of low taxes on big business, and quick sales of Iraq’s banks and bridges—in fact, “ALL state enterprises”—to foreign operators. There’s more in the Plan, part of which became public when the State Department hired consulting firm to track the progress of the Iraq makeover. Example: This is likely history’s first military assault plan appended to a program for toughening the target nation’s copyright laws.

And when it comes to oil, the Plan leaves nothing to chance—or to the Iraqis. Beginning on page 73, the secret drafters emphasized that Iraq would have to “privatize” (i.e., sell off) its “oil and supporting industries.” The Plan makes it clear that—even if we didn’t go in for the oil—we certainly won’t leave without it.

If anyone had any doubts... But the nerve of these crooks!

Mosh!

/ pop / goes the politics /
Damn the man can rap...! IMHO Eminem's video could just turn out to be more important an anti-Bush factor, than the OBL October Surprise v.2004, which was kinda ineffective if you ask me... Heck even Moby liked it! Shady is not a pop icon, in the manufactured sense, he represents - and he's a voice and an indicator for a whole class of young, disaffected poor, quite a few of whom are part of the US army over in Iraq. This is a true "opinion leader", street savvy, street tough and street honest - which means honest enough to have nothing to lose when he speaks his mind. Eminem's is the sort of From The Gut political reaction that sparks riots, creates unrest and is dangerous, because it comes from that part of society that has the most to lose if things don't change. This isn't a radical manifesto of course. But it's a lot more than simply a call for a vote - although the video doesn't allow itself to become as aggressive as it initially promises. Because you know that the masses of the disaffected, when they gather, all dressed in their dark hoods, are not simply going to vote... This perceptive passage from an article in the the (consistently superb) Asia Times about the Mosh and other Signs of Our Times, pretty much hits the nail on the head:

For an 18-year-old voting for the first time, "Mosh" provokes the same impact that the barricades of May 1968 in Paris did on the "children of Mao and Coca-Cola", as film genius Jean-Luc Godard put it. The esthetic of the video may be cartoon teenage wasteland - a code easily identified by Eminem's core audience - but hardly could there be a better metaphor for the current US political nightmare than "moshing". The thing is, Eminem and director Inaba use "moshing" to organize a strategic, political response to alienation and dystopia. Voting, in this case, is only the first, necessary step toward a society of real free speech and informed, participatory democracy.

Similarly Megan O'Rourke (despite describing the clip's mode as simultaneously "fascistic" and "anti-authoritarian" - big enough to contain its opposite eh?) points out that:

...the image of an army of youth marching down the street is meant to make you feel, momentarily, that the peace between the classes is a precarious one, and that violence is the recourse—and the idiom—of those who feel themselves to be terminally disenfranchised...

Finally Juan Cole, commenting on the Mosh and Eminem, concludes with the following paragraph:

The song is important as a development in popular culture. But I am arguing that it may also be important in class terms. If any significant number of lower middle class white youth are thinking like this, it could make a difference in some races.

Heh! If any significant number of lower middle class white youth are thinking like this, it could make a difference in a hell of a lot more than presidential politics...

So regardless whether Slim Shady is entering his political phase, the sentiment, indeed the anger, expressed seems deeper than hype - and as far from the academic PC mentality that has kept the left stale and disconnected from its natural constituency (especially across the Atlantic), as possible.

Listen, the way things are, a Michael Moore documentary and a smart hip-hop icon's video with a political message are far more important to the left than any number of petitions for peace or theoretical treatises that the academia has to offer - and their anger and the ability to voice it in an inclusive and effective way, shows a way out of the miserable and self-defeating variety of "identity politics" that has been a gift to the left's opponents everywhere for the past few decades.

Note: This wasn't the first GNN / Eminem collaboration either.

Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq [PDF file]

/ murderousness / champions /

This from the Lancet, among the most authoritative medical journals in the world, not exactly a publication that publishes political op-eds:

Background: In March, 2003, military forces, mainly from the USA and the UK, invaded Iraq. We did a survey to compare mortality during the period of 14·6 months before the invasion with the 17·8 months after it.
...
Findings: The risk of death was estimated to be 2·5-fold (95% CI 1·6–4·2) higher after the invasion when compared with the preinvasion period. Two-thirds of all violent deaths were reported in one cluster in the city of Falluja. If we exclude the Falluja data, the risk of death is 1·5-fold (1·1–2·3) higher after the invasion. We estimate that 98 000 more deaths than expected (8000–194 000) happened after the invasion outside of Falluja and far more if the outlier Falluja cluster is included. The major causes of death before the invasion were myocardial infarction,cerebrovascular accidents, and other chronic disorders whereas after the invasion violence was the primary cause of death. Violent deaths were widespread, reported in 15 of 33 clusters, and were mainly attributed to coalition forces. Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition forces were women and children. The risk of death from violence in the period after the invasion was 58 times higher (95% CI 8·1–419) than in the period before the war.

100.000 in a year and a half... This is impressive even when compared with Saddam's worst years... How many dead can you see, by the dawn's early light? How many can you name?

The Greek agenda for the Security council

/ unsc / members / only /
Greece was recently elected as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council... Linked above is the statement of policy as far as the Greek membership in the UN Security Council is concerned. You'll see that it's short on specifics, other than that it intends to focus on the Balkans and Cyprus. About the more general and pressing agenda of the UNSC its has this to say:

The horizon over the Middle East remains dark. The Greek Government is convinced that only the implementation of the Road Map can lead to the two state solution, that is Israel and Palestine, coexisting in peace and security. Half measures could only complicate matters and add new sources of tension.

Essential progress in the peace process cannot be achieved without a comprehensive cessation of all kinds of violence, especially those directed against civilians. Terrorism cannot be a weapon to achieve political goals and terrorist attacks cannot be justified by any means.

As to Iraq, we are deeply committed to the territorial integrity and unity of the country in a federal system. We are deeply worried by the ongoing violence and we hope for progress in the political process which will lead to a stable and prosperous democratic country allowing all of its citizens to enjoy the fruits of peace and exploit the country's enormous potential.

Which isn't much, but, hey, times are rough...

Rather than elaborate on the problematic nature of the UN these past few years, let me point to this very interesting, utopian (in a good way) proposal for the transformation of the UN (into something that will have the black helicopter crowd in the US screaming "World Domination!"). This is part of a discussion concerning the necessary changes to the UN's internal structure and external responsibilities, that needs to begin soon, since the only visible alternative to the UN is currently a very dangerous form of absolute unilateralism.... and there's no telling what that will bring.

Filoglossia - Learning Greek as a foreign language

/ greek / to you / no longer /
In case my non-Greek visitors are interested in learning the language so that they can enjoy my much more eloquent (yet similarly inane) ramblings in Greek, over at the Greek Histologion (Ιστολόγιον), there is now the opportunity to learn Greek through the web, brought to you by the Greek Institute for Language and Speech Processing.

However, I feel that I must respectfully point out to those that succumb to the sirens of simplification, that it should be Philoglossia (as in Philipp, Philosophy, and Coprophilia to name a few similar composites...)

The making of the terror myth

/ terrorism / organizations / contrived /
A documentary is about to be shown on BBC2, in three parts starting next Wednesday that is bound to stir some controversy. It's titled "The Power of Nightmares" and it "seeks to overturn much of what is widely believed about Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida. The latter, it argues, is not an organised international network. It does not have members or a leader. It does not have 'sleeper cells'. It does not have an overall strategy. In fact, it barely exists at all, except as an idea about cleansing a corrupt world through religious violence..."

Which is voicing in a well argued (it is claimed) manner, the concerns of everyone that's been paying attention to the scant evidence of the group's existence that has been offered till now.

I wonder if one can actually order this from the BBC somehow...?

Update Oct. 24 Ask and you shall receive...: From a comment at Barista, to Silt and from there to a bittorrent version of part one of the documentary! Ain't the internets something! However the file is over 350 Megs so I'll have to wait to download this... The bittorrent software can be freely downloaded here...

Chechnya: The New Magic Kingdom

/ caucasus / projects / surreal /
I first saw it in MosNews (check the image collage!), but couldn't believe it so I turned to the BBC and...there it was:

"Chechnya is to get its own version of Disneyland under plans announced by the war-battered republic's prime minister. Sergei Abramov, who heads Chechnya's pro-Moscow government, said on Friday that the park would be built next year along with a range of cultural and entertainment facilities, including a new football stadium."

This is the sort of unintentional very dark humour coming from the former USSR I find astonishing. MosNews is a treasure trove of similar forrays into the world of "visiously surreal yet real", covering news items that boggle the mind, and leave you agog, such as:

Two Mental Patients Detained in Urals on Suspicion of Organizing Terrorist Attacks

Russia’s Far East Region to Reopen Czarist Penal Labor Camps as Tourist Attraction [You see its a national web of adventure theme parks!]

Russian Policeman Uses Hammer to Finish off Old Woman After Running Her Over in Car

Russian Pensioner Kills Intruder with Zucchini

Siberian Villager Builds Missile Fence, and then a day later: Missile Falls Near Private House in Russian Far East

Rafting Tournament on Sex Dolls in North Russia, possibly connected with the Monument to the Potato Erected in North Russia

and in what is possibly the funniest (yet exaggerated) headline of the year, from everyone's favourite deranged dictator, Sparmurat Niyazov: Turkmen Leader Orders People to Stop Chewing Chicken Crap

For even darker humour there's always the exile's Death Porn

Well.. he should know...

/ politics / demonic /
Apparently Wojtyla isn't the only one with this concern. Numerology is invoked, while others are publically asking the question. The internet hosts at least 871 related pages. Apparently this issue was first publically discussed by an evangelical christian who gave a negative (but was it really?) answer.

Anyway the seriously scary story is about dubya's world view... Truly frightening... [last link from Metafilter]

Muslim seperatists apply for association with Russia

/ caucasus / geopolitics / more complicated than you thought
Apparently "the People’s Assembly (legislature) of the self-proclaimed republic of Abkhazia has addressed the Russian president and Federal Assembly with a request for supporting the idea of establishing Abkhazia’s associate membership relations with Russia."
Now Russia might already have troops in Abkhazia, despite protestations to the contrary. The situation is tense and it seems that trouble is brewing in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia, where Russia is making warning sounds...

I think this might put to rest the idea that the conflicts in the Caucasus are an "Islam vs. Christianity" issue or simply an instance of the Islamic terrorist mentality.

(That last link leads to a WSJ editorial, which - I must point out - contains this incredible phrase: "Whatever Russian President Vladimir Putin's mistakes in Chechnya (see David Satter's article in The Wall Street Journal today), they don't justify the deliberate targeting of innocents." Well, Putin's mistakes included the massive and deliberate targeting of innocents, a fact that the author seems to find irrelevant.)